Gavin Hales
@gmhales.bsky.social
Researching/discussing policing, crime and the criminal justice system. Senior Associate Fellow @policefoundationuk.bsky.social but my own views.
Based in London, UK.
Based in London, UK.
Reposted by Gavin Hales
Note the way only a very small % of stops in Merseyside are of non-White people, reflecting the demographics of the resident population. I'm sure it's why there is little interest in (or controversy about) Merseyside Police's use of S&S.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Note the way only a very small % of stops in Merseyside are of non-White people, reflecting the demographics of the resident population. I'm sure it's why there is little interest in (or controversy about) Merseyside Police's use of S&S.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
I think that suggests any efforts to address disproportionality that focus on individual officer decision making are unlikely to have more than a marginal impact.
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November 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
I think that suggests any efforts to address disproportionality that focus on individual officer decision making are unlikely to have more than a marginal impact.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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November 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
7/
Reposted by Gavin Hales
And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
I need to do some more digging on why that might be. One possibility is a shift in the offence/powers context, e.g. reflecting the rise in shoplifting in recent years. Another is a change in emphasis on arrests rather than other positive outcomes where offences are found.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
I need to do some more digging on why that might be. One possibility is a shift in the offence/powers context, e.g. reflecting the rise in shoplifting in recent years. Another is a change in emphasis on arrests rather than other positive outcomes where offences are found.
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Reposted by Gavin Hales
Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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This may be of interest bsky.app/profile/gmha...
It may be of interest that in stop and search data, Black people are more likely than White and Asian to have their self-defined ethnicity recorded as 'not stated'. That means that if SDE is used for calculating disproportionality, Black disproportionality will be under-stated.
November 29, 2025 at 3:53 PM
This may be of interest bsky.app/profile/gmha...
The data here are from the MPS stop and search dashboard data published via the London Datastore - which consists of incident- (stop-) level data. data.london.gov.uk/dataset/mps-...
MPS Stop and Search Dashboard Data – London Datastore
data.london.gov.uk
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The data here are from the MPS stop and search dashboard data published via the London Datastore - which consists of incident- (stop-) level data. data.london.gov.uk/dataset/mps-...
The implications of that include (1) SDE & EA can be used in combination to minimise gaps in ethnicity data (i.e. use EA to fill gaps in SDE); and (2) a wider Black grouping should include people with White/Black heritage in the Census denominator (ditto White/Asian for consistency).
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The implications of that include (1) SDE & EA can be used in combination to minimise gaps in ethnicity data (i.e. use EA to fill gaps in SDE); and (2) a wider Black grouping should include people with White/Black heritage in the Census denominator (ditto White/Asian for consistency).
Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
I still think it is interesting to view the data in this way.
November 29, 2025 at 3:16 PM
I still think it is interesting to view the data in this way.
If nothing else, I think it suggests the high % SDE not stated in Met is in line with the broad trend.
I think it's reasonable to think that there are likely to be fewer sensitivities about asking and answering the SDE question where the context is police powers and the subject is White.
I think it's reasonable to think that there are likely to be fewer sensitivities about asking and answering the SDE question where the context is police powers and the subject is White.
November 29, 2025 at 3:13 PM
If nothing else, I think it suggests the high % SDE not stated in Met is in line with the broad trend.
I think it's reasonable to think that there are likely to be fewer sensitivities about asking and answering the SDE question where the context is police powers and the subject is White.
I think it's reasonable to think that there are likely to be fewer sensitivities about asking and answering the SDE question where the context is police powers and the subject is White.
They don't have a residential population denominator, and City of London's is so small it leads to huge rate calculations that offer no insight - so both end up with no rate (rather than zero). I should probably have labelled the chart accordingly (or left them off).
November 29, 2025 at 3:00 PM
They don't have a residential population denominator, and City of London's is so small it leads to huge rate calculations that offer no insight - so both end up with no rate (rather than zero). I should probably have labelled the chart accordingly (or left them off).
Note the way only a very small % of stops in Merseyside are of non-White people, reflecting the demographics of the resident population. I'm sure it's why there is little interest in (or controversy about) Merseyside Police's use of S&S.
10/
10/
November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Note the way only a very small % of stops in Merseyside are of non-White people, reflecting the demographics of the resident population. I'm sure it's why there is little interest in (or controversy about) Merseyside Police's use of S&S.
10/
10/
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
9/
9/
November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
9/
9/
I think that suggests any efforts to address disproportionality that focus on individual officer decision making are unlikely to have more than a marginal impact.
8/
8/
November 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
I think that suggests any efforts to address disproportionality that focus on individual officer decision making are unlikely to have more than a marginal impact.
8/
8/
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
7/
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
7/
November 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
7/
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
7/
The data are from the latest (Nov 2025) Home Office Police Powers and Procedures data, specifically the S&S summary and open data tables gov.uk/government/s...
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gov.uk
November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The data are from the latest (Nov 2025) Home Office Police Powers and Procedures data, specifically the S&S summary and open data tables gov.uk/government/s...
6/
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And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
5/
5/
November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
5/
5/
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
4/
4/
November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
4/
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