@gertfromwell.bsky.social
You don’t need AI, you can do it in Excel
- Column A: overstayed (TRUE/FALSE)
- Column B: prob(overstayed) = COUNTIF(A:A, TRUE)/COUNT(A:A)
- Column A: overstayed (TRUE/FALSE)
- Column B: prob(overstayed) = COUNTIF(A:A, TRUE)/COUNT(A:A)
May 6, 2025 at 10:45 AM
You don’t need AI, you can do it in Excel
- Column A: overstayed (TRUE/FALSE)
- Column B: prob(overstayed) = COUNTIF(A:A, TRUE)/COUNT(A:A)
- Column A: overstayed (TRUE/FALSE)
- Column B: prob(overstayed) = COUNTIF(A:A, TRUE)/COUNT(A:A)
Price elasticity for cinemas is < -1, this study for example estimates a range between -3.3 and -2.5, so a 100% price increase would reduce demand to zero. No foreign movies, only 3 dolls, it’s going to be the new golden age.
nicderoos.com/files/movies...
nicderoos.com/files/movies...
nicderoos.com
May 5, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Price elasticity for cinemas is < -1, this study for example estimates a range between -3.3 and -2.5, so a 100% price increase would reduce demand to zero. No foreign movies, only 3 dolls, it’s going to be the new golden age.
nicderoos.com/files/movies...
nicderoos.com/files/movies...
Tariffs and sales tax are converging
May 5, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Tariffs and sales tax are converging
You double the price of the ticket, half goes to the federal government 🤷♂️
May 5, 2025 at 7:47 AM
You double the price of the ticket, half goes to the federal government 🤷♂️
The US need to reduce the deficit and the debt. Even if the tariffs generate extra revenue (spoiler: they will not, they will more likely de-industrialize America even more), it should be used to reduce the debt/GDP ratio, not to tax cuts.
April 27, 2025 at 3:16 PM
The US need to reduce the deficit and the debt. Even if the tariffs generate extra revenue (spoiler: they will not, they will more likely de-industrialize America even more), it should be used to reduce the debt/GDP ratio, not to tax cuts.
We are almost there, summer is still almost two months ahead 🤞
April 23, 2025 at 10:21 PM
We are almost there, summer is still almost two months ahead 🤞
Option 1 I believe is the true one. It’s aligned with the bully and transactional approach of Trump, it explains why the tariff “formula” was nonsense (ie why wasting time fine tuning a reciprocal tariff if it’s just a threat), and it’s the least tard compared to option 2 and 3.
April 6, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Option 1 I believe is the true one. It’s aligned with the bully and transactional approach of Trump, it explains why the tariff “formula” was nonsense (ie why wasting time fine tuning a reciprocal tariff if it’s just a threat), and it’s the least tard compared to option 2 and 3.
The goal would be the same as the CHIPS act (reindustrialization), but less targeted to specific industries and pursued with tariffs rather than subsidies.
April 6, 2025 at 9:31 AM
The goal would be the same as the CHIPS act (reindustrialization), but less targeted to specific industries and pursued with tariffs rather than subsidies.
Option 3
Tariffs are enacted, and they are so high to trigger import substitution. The goal wouldn’t be revenue generation (imports don’t come in so the tariff is not collected), but protection to incentivize reshoring and reindustrialization
Tariffs are enacted, and they are so high to trigger import substitution. The goal wouldn’t be revenue generation (imports don’t come in so the tariff is not collected), but protection to incentivize reshoring and reindustrialization
April 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Option 3
Tariffs are enacted, and they are so high to trigger import substitution. The goal wouldn’t be revenue generation (imports don’t come in so the tariff is not collected), but protection to incentivize reshoring and reindustrialization
Tariffs are enacted, and they are so high to trigger import substitution. The goal wouldn’t be revenue generation (imports don’t come in so the tariff is not collected), but protection to incentivize reshoring and reindustrialization
The extra revenue will not allow to cancel the income tax (that’s just not realistic), and it will be used to reduce the deficit and debt (if Trump is fiscal conservative), or to reduce taxes (it would be a tax transfer from those that pay the tariff = sales tax, to the beneficiaries of the tax cut)
April 6, 2025 at 9:26 AM
The extra revenue will not allow to cancel the income tax (that’s just not realistic), and it will be used to reduce the deficit and debt (if Trump is fiscal conservative), or to reduce taxes (it would be a tax transfer from those that pay the tariff = sales tax, to the beneficiaries of the tax cut)
Option 2
Tariffs are enacted, it’s not a bluff, but the barrier is not too high, and thus it will not trigger import substitution. This would be like Trump 1, it would a tax on US consumers, with the goal of increasing federal revenue.
Tariffs are enacted, it’s not a bluff, but the barrier is not too high, and thus it will not trigger import substitution. This would be like Trump 1, it would a tax on US consumers, with the goal of increasing federal revenue.
April 6, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Option 2
Tariffs are enacted, it’s not a bluff, but the barrier is not too high, and thus it will not trigger import substitution. This would be like Trump 1, it would a tax on US consumers, with the goal of increasing federal revenue.
Tariffs are enacted, it’s not a bluff, but the barrier is not too high, and thus it will not trigger import substitution. This would be like Trump 1, it would a tax on US consumers, with the goal of increasing federal revenue.