George Hasanakos
@georgehasanakos.bsky.social
Polling and elections commentator. Director of Research at DemosAU. Follow for election and polling analysis.
Exactly. This why I only include parties that have track record of running in every seat in lower house polls. "Any other candidate" isn't perfect, but its best of the available options prior to close of nominations IMO.
October 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Exactly. This why I only include parties that have track record of running in every seat in lower house polls. "Any other candidate" isn't perfect, but its best of the available options prior to close of nominations IMO.
FF at 5% while ON does well may not be so crazy. ON doesn't really play in the religious right space. While NSW had the CDP for decades which won 3-6% of the upper house vote and they aren't around anymore, so FF may be able to fill the void.
October 29, 2025 at 10:57 AM
FF at 5% while ON does well may not be so crazy. ON doesn't really play in the religious right space. While NSW had the CDP for decades which won 3-6% of the upper house vote and they aren't around anymore, so FF may be able to fill the void.
I am open minded on this possibility.
October 29, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I am open minded on this possibility.
Still, we are in a moment where One Nation is shooting up. Essential today has them at 16% nationally (once undec are excluded), Redbridge had them on 14% a few weeks ago. 8-10% swing. A 9% swing in the upper house to them isn't so fanciful.
October 29, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Still, we are in a moment where One Nation is shooting up. Essential today has them at 16% nationally (once undec are excluded), Redbridge had them on 14% a few weeks ago. 8-10% swing. A 9% swing in the upper house to them isn't so fanciful.
The people who don't really want to dwell on politics may be more likely to see elections as a binary major party choice. But this is a theory on my part.
October 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The people who don't really want to dwell on politics may be more likely to see elections as a binary major party choice. But this is a theory on my part.
I don't think its an issue with the sampling, because the lower house result is credible IMO.
In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.
In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.
October 29, 2025 at 10:18 AM
I don't think its an issue with the sampling, because the lower house result is credible IMO.
In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.
In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.
Federal Politics Poll - NSW (Change vs 2022 fed election)
TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)
PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)
Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38
Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52
TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)
PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)
Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38
Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52
April 1, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Federal Politics Poll - NSW (Change vs 2022 fed election)
TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)
PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)
Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38
Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52
TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)
PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)
Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38
Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52
The full Trustwatch report is at this link: demosau.com/wp-content/u...
March 25, 2025 at 5:07 AM
The full Trustwatch report is at this link: demosau.com/wp-content/u...
6. High Court (27%)
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.
March 25, 2025 at 3:30 AM
6. High Court (27%)
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.
Federal Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)
TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)
PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)
Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37
Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55
TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)
PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)
Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37
Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55
March 24, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Federal Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)
TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)
PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)
Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37
Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55
TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)
PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)
Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37
Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55