Geopolitical updates
@geopolupdates.bsky.social
Keeps you updated w geopolitical developments and views. Focus on Africa, the Middle East, Ukraine & other hotspots. Instagram threads: geopol___updates
X: Geopol_updates
X: Geopol_updates
#US military met w the Ethiopian (military) leadership. #Addis claims the US backs its illegal claim for an #Eritrean port. US did not confirm this nor did it release any statement backing Addis. If indeed untrue its worrying that a Gov could try to manipulate the IC like this
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
#RSF declared a ceasefire & its acceptance of the Quad peace plan in which the UAE (its main supplier) is a mediator. #AlBurhan rejected the plan & will not accept a #Sudan in which RSF is present & the UAE as a mediator. RSF ceasefire meant to weaken SAF.
"Sudan’s army chief Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan blasted a new US-led ceasefire plan as “the worst one presented,” accusing mediators — including the United Arab Emirates — of bias. The RSF says it accepted the truce."
‘The worst one presented’: Sudan rejects US-led ceasefire proposal #AlJazeera #Sudan
November 25, 2025 at 3:49 PM
#Ukraine, the EU & the US met about the 🇺🇸🇷🇺 plan: 🇪🇺 counter adjusts the drop in the 🇺🇦 army by only 200k, not giving #Moscow any non occupied land & a article 5 style defense deal. #EU’s mistake: starting talks on the basis of 🇷🇺n deal
Trump, you just sold out Ukraine»: Protest in Washington demanding the impeachment of the US President
Participants in the action hold placards calling for Trump's removal and express outrage over his "peace plan" regarding Ukraine.
Participants in the action hold placards calling for Trump's removal and express outrage over his "peace plan" regarding Ukraine.
November 24, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Russian media & the Kremlin appear beyond happy w #Trump’s 28 point peace plan after they reported about the crippling #Ukrainian defenses. Add to that #Zelensky’s growing corruption scandal. During this perfect storm Trump wants Kiev to accept the plan this Thursday.
November 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Russian media & the Kremlin appear beyond happy w #Trump’s 28 point peace plan after they reported about the crippling #Ukrainian defenses. Add to that #Zelensky’s growing corruption scandal. During this perfect storm Trump wants Kiev to accept the plan this Thursday.
The US sale of #F35 will change the balance of power to some extent. But #Israeli pilots, maintainers etc. have deep build in experience in using F35s. #Saudi will likely rely on the US for critical logistics. US likely has many built in limits in its sale to keep Israel on nr 1
Trump on selling F35 planes to Saudi Arabia: They like us, yes, we will do it
November 19, 2025 at 6:34 PM
#Ethiopian diplomacy is hard to follow these days. It goes from threatening #Eritrea w open war & the fate of Gaza/Ukraine to calling for dialogue w #Asmara. Abiy has managed to isolate Ethiopia from almost the whole region (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, partly Djibouti & Somalia)
November 19, 2025 at 6:23 PM
#Ethiopian diplomacy is hard to follow these days. It goes from threatening #Eritrea w open war & the fate of Gaza/Ukraine to calling for dialogue w #Asmara. Abiy has managed to isolate Ethiopia from almost the whole region (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, partly Djibouti & Somalia)
#RSF backed by the UAE & allied w Ethiopia ethnically cleansed #ElFasher & look towards the East. Up to 380 RSF battle vehicles drive towards #ElObeid in Kordofan. Experts: SAF will lose ElObeid due to a lack of weapons & manpower. RSF uses western weapons
📍Al Fasher, Sudan | A Sudanese mother is reunited with her two children that she lost during the recent chaos caused by RSF militants in Al Fasher as they killed thousands and made tens of thousands flee the besieged city.
November 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Experts: The #Ethiopian statement signals weakness as it looks that Addis lacks leverage & heightens tensions w #Asmara. Dramatic statements w no legal claim make 🇪🇹 look unrealistic & increases IC’s skepticism w the risk of IC siding w #Eritrea to avoid precedent setting moves
November 14, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Experts: The #Ethiopian statement signals weakness as it looks that Addis lacks leverage & heightens tensions w #Asmara. Dramatic statements w no legal claim make 🇪🇹 look unrealistic & increases IC’s skepticism w the risk of IC siding w #Eritrea to avoid precedent setting moves
@AfriMEOSINT reports that the UAE is building an airstrip on the Yemeni Hanish islands, likely pointing to a dual use naval & air facility. #Eritrea likely to invest more in drones, small fast attack boats & improved comm & cyber security to protect port & military info. #Asmara
November 14, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Reallifelore reports #Iran faces its greatest civilizational crisis. Its proxies weakened, its bases bombed, the US deal betw 🇦🇲 & 🇦🇿 leads to NATO blocking a northern corridor w 🇷🇺 & it clashes w the Taliban in the east. Lastly it has a huge water crisis. #Tehran #Israel
Emergency #drought in #Iran: water levels in the Amir Kabir Dam — supplying drinking water to #Tehran — is below 8%. The country is suffering after months of drought and record heat. The video shows the #Copernicus #Sentinel2 image on Nov. 2 2024 and Nov. 9 2025. #climateemergency
November 12, 2025 at 8:18 AM
#Trump wants #Syria to join the US led coalition against ISIS. Syria just foiled two ISIS attempts to kill its president #AlSharaa. US also wants Syria to have a security deal w Israel & to invest in its oil & gas reserves. AlSharaa wants investments & to be a regional player.
November 11, 2025 at 8:56 AM
#Syria’s president on 9/11: “I was a very young person. And I didn't have any decision-making power at that time.
And al-Qaeda was not present right then in my area. So, you're speaking to the wrong person about this. We mourn for every civilian.” #AlSharaa #Trump
And al-Qaeda was not present right then in my area. So, you're speaking to the wrong person about this. We mourn for every civilian.” #AlSharaa #Trump
November 11, 2025 at 6:32 AM
From former terrorist w a $10 mln bounty on his head to #Syria’s president who met #Trump twice. Yday #AlSharaa met Trump for the 2nd time, now in the White House (!). Iran used to fund its militias & Russia gave it political cover but Syria is now in the US sphere of influence
November 11, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Worldbank & AFDB: The #Eritrean economy is steadily growing with inflation & its big domestic debt decreasing. #Asmara profits from strong mining output. #Eritrea exports more than it imports. Colluli mine to be operational by the end of 26 & could contribute up to 10% of GDP.
November 9, 2025 at 5:40 PM
#Addis has economically neglected the #Afar region even as it was affected by the Tigray war, climate induced droughts & migrations. Afar is now central to Abiy’s plans of invading #Eritrea’s Assab & Tigray. The people of Afar are being drawn into more conflict.
November 9, 2025 at 3:47 PM
#Addis has economically neglected the #Afar region even as it was affected by the Tigray war, climate induced droughts & migrations. Afar is now central to Abiy’s plans of invading #Eritrea’s Assab & Tigray. The people of Afar are being drawn into more conflict.
The #Russian army is sign. weakened according to the ISW, but learns due to #Ukrainian drone tactics. It successfully modified its Iskander missile to avoid anti aircraft, uses small infantry teams to hunt down drone operators & hits supply lines. Now #Pokrovsk is at risk.
November 9, 2025 at 3:23 PM
The #Russian army is sign. weakened according to the ISW, but learns due to #Ukrainian drone tactics. It successfully modified its Iskander missile to avoid anti aircraft, uses small infantry teams to hunt down drone operators & hits supply lines. Now #Pokrovsk is at risk.
#Addis has long funded & armed TPF to attack #Tigray from #Afar as Abiy wants Tigrayans to weaken themselves. The ENDF drone strike on TDF forces is a direct result of this policy. Instead of implementing Pretoria, Abiy is arming TPF & delegitimizing TPLF which signed Pretoria.
November 9, 2025 at 2:48 PM
#Sudan’s partition is a red line for #Cairo. It enables RSF to control #Darfur’s resources & disconnect SAF from Egypt’s SW borders as well Libya/Chad. A weak Sudan cant back 🇪🇬 vs 🇪🇹 & RSF would get new supply lines from 🇱🇾🇹🇩. It could lead to terrorist incursions from the Sahel
November 7, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Fighting betw #Tigray Defense force & TPF backed by Abiy is intensifying. #Addis meanwhile is choking Tigray (no budget) since he lost control of the region. W fighting ongoing in Amhara & Oromia too & Ethiopia being unable to pay its debt, another war w #Eritrea is risky
November 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM
ICG: #ElFasher fell due to a combination of factors like effective besieging by the #RSF leading to starvation & soldiers giving up, better weapons incl. anti aircraft, drones & heavy artillery and increased UAE shipments through chad. #Sudan
#RSF claims it captured the last army HQ of #ElFasher after a long siege. The #Sudanese army is still fighting from inside the city. If the city falls Darfur could break away depriving the gov of many minerals & threaten Egypt’s south.
El Fasher, Darfur, Sudan, spotted YESTERDAY👇
Several burning scars from SAF hits around airport where RSF presence and some "control" has been recorded.
Civilian population has been pushed to area East of SAF Fort. Heavy shelling/drone strikes on them at white dotted elipse.
Things getting ugly.
Several burning scars from SAF hits around airport where RSF presence and some "control" has been recorded.
Civilian population has been pushed to area East of SAF Fort. Heavy shelling/drone strikes on them at white dotted elipse.
Things getting ugly.
November 5, 2025 at 6:26 AM