Join us at 15:45 at LPC to discuss how public sector pay and pensions might be reformed. With Dave Penman @fdaunion.bsky.social @timleunig.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social and Paul Whiteman

Next Weds Rachel Reeves will set out results of multiyear spending review, which should reveal a lot about govt's priorities. Join me @njdavies.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social and @jillongovt.bsky.social at 4pm to discuss what we have learnt www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/2025-s...

This is the big reason why the OBR forecasts look worse since October - government borrowing costs have gone up

If Reeves had done nothing today, she'd have been on course to miss her fiscal target by only just under £1bn - a trivial miss in the context of the UK's public finances. She responded (about half through the disability benefit changes) by restoring *exactly* the same £9.9bn headroom she had in Oct

OBR forecast revisions knocked a hole in Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans. She responded by announcing measures to restore *exactly* the same margin against her rules as she had in October - still very small given average size of forecast revisions

Real household disposable income per person (the measure Reeves said she would boost in the Plan for Change) is looking better, despite welfare cuts. Partly due to stronger real wage growth...

OBR thinks real growth will be weaker this year but then bounce back more strongly so no permanent hit to the size of the real economy - but growth will be less tax rich than expected, and higher gilt rates, so bad news for public finances

Are you interested in how government functions and interested in making it better? Would you like to work with lovely, highly motivated colleagues conducting research, developing recommendations and sharing your findings? If so...we're recruiting... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/about-us/car...