Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social
Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.
FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.
August 30, 2025 at 5:50 PM
FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
July 26, 2025 at 6:06 PM
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
July 26, 2025 at 6:05 PM
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran.
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
July 25, 2025 at 2:56 PM
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran.
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
June 21, 2025 at 11:55 PM
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
June 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
Relevant passage here:
May 18, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Relevant passage here:
Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.
May 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.
Araghchi in an interview with Iran Newspaper:
"If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."
"If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."
March 13, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Araghchi in an interview with Iran Newspaper:
"If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."
"If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."
As @liamdenning.bsky.social illustrates, the security argument for oil/gas leaves out the disruptive role the US now plays (and, tbh, has played in the past). On cost, arguably the most important element in assessing security, renewables are hardly negligible. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
March 10, 2025 at 4:52 PM
As @liamdenning.bsky.social illustrates, the security argument for oil/gas leaves out the disruptive role the US now plays (and, tbh, has played in the past). On cost, arguably the most important element in assessing security, renewables are hardly negligible. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Mike Dimino, the new top MENA official at the Pentagon, has long been critical of US policy in the region--including regime change ambitions in Iran. t.co/rxh4wl3CpP
January 22, 2025 at 4:30 AM
Mike Dimino, the new top MENA official at the Pentagon, has long been critical of US policy in the region--including regime change ambitions in Iran. t.co/rxh4wl3CpP
Another trip around the globe means another sweater.
December 29, 2024 at 5:44 PM
Another trip around the globe means another sweater.
Digesting the fall of Assad: cautious optimism among the opposition, growing talk of going nuclear among hardliners, and a general acknowledgment that the Islamic Republic hasn't looked this weak in years.
December 17, 2024 at 12:41 PM
Digesting the fall of Assad: cautious optimism among the opposition, growing talk of going nuclear among hardliners, and a general acknowledgment that the Islamic Republic hasn't looked this weak in years.
This would also explain Zarif's choice of words when discussing a new nuclear deal.
"Mutually beneficial investment measures" calls to mind recent reports of MBS offering Iran increased trade and investment, in exchange for pulling back its support for regional proxies.
"Mutually beneficial investment measures" calls to mind recent reports of MBS offering Iran increased trade and investment, in exchange for pulling back its support for regional proxies.
December 2, 2024 at 5:45 PM
This would also explain Zarif's choice of words when discussing a new nuclear deal.
"Mutually beneficial investment measures" calls to mind recent reports of MBS offering Iran increased trade and investment, in exchange for pulling back its support for regional proxies.
"Mutually beneficial investment measures" calls to mind recent reports of MBS offering Iran increased trade and investment, in exchange for pulling back its support for regional proxies.
Outside of resetting with US, Zarif notes the effort being made at solidifying Iran's relations with Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Zarif points to Palestine as a unifying factor, but better to characterize it as a wedge keeping the Gulf, and esp. KSA, from embracing Israel.
Zarif points to Palestine as a unifying factor, but better to characterize it as a wedge keeping the Gulf, and esp. KSA, from embracing Israel.
December 2, 2024 at 5:44 PM
Outside of resetting with US, Zarif notes the effort being made at solidifying Iran's relations with Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Zarif points to Palestine as a unifying factor, but better to characterize it as a wedge keeping the Gulf, and esp. KSA, from embracing Israel.
Zarif points to Palestine as a unifying factor, but better to characterize it as a wedge keeping the Gulf, and esp. KSA, from embracing Israel.
Israeli troops have occupied a strip of territory in Lebanon.
Per the ceasefire agreement, IDF will withdraw once Lebanon's military is ready to ensure the ceasefire conditions. Until then, Israeli troops will stay. Lebanese civilians are discouraged from returning.
Per the ceasefire agreement, IDF will withdraw once Lebanon's military is ready to ensure the ceasefire conditions. Until then, Israeli troops will stay. Lebanese civilians are discouraged from returning.
November 28, 2024 at 1:44 PM
Israeli troops have occupied a strip of territory in Lebanon.
Per the ceasefire agreement, IDF will withdraw once Lebanon's military is ready to ensure the ceasefire conditions. Until then, Israeli troops will stay. Lebanese civilians are discouraged from returning.
Per the ceasefire agreement, IDF will withdraw once Lebanon's military is ready to ensure the ceasefire conditions. Until then, Israeli troops will stay. Lebanese civilians are discouraged from returning.
The Israeli govt and hostage families are pinning all their hopes on Trump coming in and delivering a deal after months of Biden failing to do so.
Trump, incidentally, was under the impression that all the hostages were dead.
Trump, incidentally, was under the impression that all the hostages were dead.
November 23, 2024 at 6:27 PM
The Israeli govt and hostage families are pinning all their hopes on Trump coming in and delivering a deal after months of Biden failing to do so.
Trump, incidentally, was under the impression that all the hostages were dead.
Trump, incidentally, was under the impression that all the hostages were dead.
Bessent got the job at Treasury by advising Trump on three areas (budget, regulations, oil) over which Treasury has no authority.
November 23, 2024 at 1:44 AM
Bessent got the job at Treasury by advising Trump on three areas (budget, regulations, oil) over which Treasury has no authority.
Arguing with my chair for one more year of Phd funding as the market posts 2-3 jobs in my sub-field.
November 22, 2024 at 3:15 PM
Arguing with my chair for one more year of Phd funding as the market posts 2-3 jobs in my sub-field.
Debates from the Georgetown History Dept c. 2014 are finally becoming official SW canon. @afinnmac.bsky.social
November 22, 2024 at 1:52 PM
Debates from the Georgetown History Dept c. 2014 are finally becoming official SW canon. @afinnmac.bsky.social
Ali Larijani, a relatively moderate Khamenei advisor and Pezeshkian ally, has suggested a "new nuclear deal" with the US, with a pledge not to build weapons in exchange for retaining Iran's enrichment capabilities. This deal would replace the largely defunct JCPOA.
November 22, 2024 at 12:30 PM
Ali Larijani, a relatively moderate Khamenei advisor and Pezeshkian ally, has suggested a "new nuclear deal" with the US, with a pledge not to build weapons in exchange for retaining Iran's enrichment capabilities. This deal would replace the largely defunct JCPOA.
Interesting aside in JPOST story on Israel preparing for striking Iran nuclear facilities, for which it will need US help:
Israel has been lobbying hard behind the scenes to get snapback to happen before October. FYI this depends on Germany, France, and the UK.
Israel has been lobbying hard behind the scenes to get snapback to happen before October. FYI this depends on Germany, France, and the UK.
November 21, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Interesting aside in JPOST story on Israel preparing for striking Iran nuclear facilities, for which it will need US help:
Israel has been lobbying hard behind the scenes to get snapback to happen before October. FYI this depends on Germany, France, and the UK.
Israel has been lobbying hard behind the scenes to get snapback to happen before October. FYI this depends on Germany, France, and the UK.