Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social
Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.
ICYMI my latest on Trump's Russia sanctions.
Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
youtube.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:24 PM
ICYMI my latest on Trump's Russia sanctions.
Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Reposted by Gregory Brew
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
youtube.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
youtube.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.
I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
Among other takeaways, confirms that Israel did, in fact, attempt to assassinate Iran's key civilian and military leadership.
By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
Targeting Iran’s Leaders, Israel Found a Weak Link: Their Bodyguards
www.nytimes.com
August 30, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Among other takeaways, confirms that Israel did, in fact, attempt to assassinate Iran's key civilian and military leadership.
By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
"The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela."
Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
Inside Trump's gunboat diplomacy with Venezuela
"It's the president's decision about what to do next, but Maduro should be s***ting bricks," an adviser said.
www.axios.com
August 29, 2025 at 5:49 PM
"The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela."
Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again."
However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy
Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.
www.politico.com
August 29, 2025 at 5:48 PM
"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again."
However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Europeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources say
Britain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.
www.reuters.com
August 27, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Gregory Brew
An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment.
I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
August 24, 2025 at 4:39 PM
An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment.
I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
Trump seems committed to increasing electricity prices by any means necessary. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/c...
Trump Administration Orders Work Halted on Wind Farm That Is Nearly Built
www.nytimes.com
August 23, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Trump seems committed to increasing electricity prices by any means necessary. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/c...
My chat with @roryjohnston.bsky.social on tariffs, Russia, the sanctioned oil market, and deciphering Trump's approach to the oil market.
Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
open.spotify.com
August 10, 2025 at 6:48 PM
My chat with @roryjohnston.bsky.social on tariffs, Russia, the sanctioned oil market, and deciphering Trump's approach to the oil market.
Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
Reposted by Gregory Brew
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about:
- Indian secondary tariff risks
- US-India trade relations
- Alternative outlets for Russian oil
- the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market
LISTEN:
open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about:
- Indian secondary tariff risks
- US-India trade relations
- Alternative outlets for Russian oil
- the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market
LISTEN:
open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
open.spotify.com
August 9, 2025 at 1:11 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about:
- Indian secondary tariff risks
- US-India trade relations
- Alternative outlets for Russian oil
- the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market
LISTEN:
open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about:
- Indian secondary tariff risks
- US-India trade relations
- Alternative outlets for Russian oil
- the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market
LISTEN:
open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
July 26, 2025 at 6:06 PM
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
July 26, 2025 at 6:05 PM
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran.
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
July 25, 2025 at 2:56 PM
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran.
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Reposted by Gregory Brew
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
foreignpolicy.com
July 23, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
Reposted by Gregory Brew
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
foreignpolicy.com
July 24, 2025 at 12:04 AM
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
foreignpolicy.com
July 24, 2025 at 12:04 AM
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
foreignpolicy.com
July 23, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
With implications for US-China.
My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk.
Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
June 22, 2025 at 11:41 PM
The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk.
Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid.
Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
June 22, 2025 at 11:41 PM
For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid.
Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
June 21, 2025 at 11:55 PM
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
June 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
He even contemplated going himself.
But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran.
Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.
Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.
Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
June 21, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran.
Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.
Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.
Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Khamenei has instructed the Assembly of Experts to prepare a list of three successors, should he be slain.
Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors
www.nytimes.com
June 21, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Khamenei has instructed the Assembly of Experts to prepare a list of three successors, should he be slain.
Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
Thanks, I'm very active on the other place but I'll try to post here as well.
He’s not as active on here as on the other site, but @gbrew24.bsky.social is a must follow on the Iran-Israel war.
June 19, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Thanks, I'm very active on the other place but I'll try to post here as well.