Jules Gazeaud
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gazeaud.bsky.social
Jules Gazeaud
@gazeaud.bsky.social
1.2K followers 510 following 5 posts
Development economist at CERDI
https://julesgazeaud.com
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Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
voxdev.bsky.social
🆕 Climate change and rural livelihoods: How extreme heat drives international migration from El Salvador

Today on VoxDev w/ Ana María Ibáñez (IDB), Juliana Quigua (UCL), Jimena Romero (Stockholm University) & Andrea Velasquez (CU Denver): https://ow.ly/zc5S50XqokT
Climate change and rural livelihoods: How extreme heat drives international migration from El Salvador
In El Salvador, extreme heat lowers agricultural productivity and rural incomes, pushing farmers – especially those with strong migrant networks – to use international migration as a climate adaptation strategy.
ow.ly
November 12, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
economeager.bsky.social
this post inspired me to ask the free GPT model "what are the most important econometrics papers about "weak identification" published since 2000?" i will post the results i got below
October 18, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
undercoverhist.bsky.social
What does a Nobel Prize on ‘innovation-driven economic growth’ actually reward?

A historian’s perspective on how to deal with the Nobel frenzy

beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/w...
October 14, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
maiamindel.bsky.social
New Substack post: the Nobel Prize goes to an economic historian and two economists of growth trying to answer the question, where do new technologies come from?

someunpleasant.substack.com/p/growing-th...
Growing the Field
What is the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics about?
someunpleasant.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
jrgptrs.bsky.social
Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
October 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
economeager.bsky.social
this wonderful paper uses our R package, baggr, for Bayesian evidence aggregation! Give it a look :) !!
voxdev.bsky.social VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Sep 29
🆕 Does index insurance work? Insights from eight experiments in agriculture

Today on VoxDev, Pauline Castaing (World Bank) & @gazeaud.bsky.social (@cerdi.bsky.social) discuss the impact of index insurance on smallholder productivity in developing countries: voxdev.org/topic/agricu...
Does index insurance work? Insights from eight experiments in agriculture
Index insurance can help smallholder farmers take on more productive risks, but its impacts remain modest, uncertain, and highly context dependent.
voxdev.org
September 29, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
dmckenzie.bsky.social
In today's blog, I discuss 3 ways for international migration to be part of a structural transformation policy: 1) as an industry itself; 2) training people abroad in the skills to develop a new industry at home; and 3) through immigration (eg Start-up Chile) blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
International Migration as a Structural Transformation Policy
blogs.worldbank.org
September 29, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
voxdev.bsky.social
🆕 Does index insurance work? Insights from eight experiments in agriculture

Today on VoxDev, Pauline Castaing (World Bank) & @gazeaud.bsky.social (@cerdi.bsky.social) discuss the impact of index insurance on smallholder productivity in developing countries: voxdev.org/topic/agricu...
Does index insurance work? Insights from eight experiments in agriculture
Index insurance can help smallholder farmers take on more productive risks, but its impacts remain modest, uncertain, and highly context dependent.
voxdev.org
September 29, 2025 at 8:17 AM
gazeaud.bsky.social
Interested in agricultural insurance, meta-analysis, and external validity? Read my VoxDev blog with Pauline Castaing, based on an article published earlier this year in the JDE. voxdev.org/topic/agricu...
Does index insurance work? Insights from eight experiments in agriculture
Index insurance can help smallholder farmers take on more productive risks, but its impacts remain modest, uncertain, and highly context dependent.
voxdev.org
September 29, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
eckles.bsky.social
I am teaching a PhD seminar this fall which attempts to put a decision-theoretic lens (or lenses) on research design.

So e.g., statistical decision theory, eliciting beliefs & preferences, and rational benchmarks.

Here's a draft syllabus docs.google.com/document/d/1...

What's missing?
August 28, 2025 at 4:22 PM
gazeaud.bsky.social
How to get honest answers to sensitive survey questions? Our WP introduces the ballot-bag, a new method that is both precise and unbiased, improving on existing approaches such as list experiments. Joint work with Bruno Crépon and Ahmed Elsayed. #econsky www.iza.org/publications...
August 26, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
michaelbarenboim.bsky.social
Israel has normalised killing journalists, like it normalised killing medical workers, like it normalised destroying hospitals and schools, like it normalised killing the equivalent of a classroom of children per day.

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
Anas al-Sharif, prominent Al Jazeera correspondent, among five journalists killed in Israeli airstrike on Gaza
Israel admits deliberate attack on the journalist, known for frontline coverage, in a strike on a tent outside al-Shifa hospital
www.theguardian.com
August 11, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
argohdes.bsky.social
I have studied the targeting of journalists for many years, but the scale and public display of these killings is truly shocking: “Israel admits deliberate attack on the journalist, known for frontline coverage, in a strike on a tent outside al-Shifa hospital“

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
Anas al-Sharif, prominent Al Jazeera correspondent, among five journalists killed in Israeli airstrike on Gaza
Israel admits deliberate attack on the journalist, known for frontline coverage, in a strike on a tent outside al-Shifa hospital
www.theguardian.com
August 11, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
christinebinzel.bsky.social
Israeli political scientist Lihi Ben Shitrit:

"The more I learn about genocide, the more shocked and embarrassed I am by my own ignorance. Once I actively tried to be better informed about genocide, the picture in Gaza became terrifyingly clear."

forward.com/opinion/7598...
As an Israeli political scientist, I resisted thinking this war was a genocide. Here's what changed my mind
The incitement for genocide in the Israeli public sphere is undeniable. So why are so many of us liberal Jews so reluctant?
forward.com
August 3, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
dmckenzie.bsky.social
My practical tips for designing, implementing, and analyzing powerful experiments. In today's blog I summarize a new paper I've written for a special issue on power calculations. A key message is that it does not make sense to talk of “the” power of an experiment. blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
My practical tips for designing and analyzing powerful experiments
blogs.worldbank.org
July 28, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
bengolub.bsky.social
I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on.

Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.

1/
July 24, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
marisakabas.bsky.social
A horrifying statement published today by the Editorial Committee of the Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency.

"Without immediate intervention, the last reporters in Gaza will die"

Translation from French to English by @cnorristrent.bsky.social:
Without immediate intervention, the last reporters in Gaza will die July 21, 2025 AFP has been working with 1 writer, 3 photographers and 6 videographers, all freelance, in the Gaza Strip since its staff journalists left in 2024. Along with a few others, they are now the only ones left to report what is happening in the Gaza Strip. The international press has been banned from entering the territory for nearly two years. We refuse to watch them die. One of them, Bashar, has been working with AFP since 2010, first as a fixer, then freelance photographer, and since 2024, as lead photographer. On July 19th he managed to post a message on Facebook: “I no longer have the strength to work for the media. My body is thin and I can’t work anymore.” Bashar, 30, works & lives in the same conditions as all Gazans, moving from one refugee camp to another under Israeli bombings. For > a year he’s lived in utter destitution, working at extreme risk to his life. Hygiene is a major issue for him, with recurring bouts of severe intestinal illness. Since Feb, Bashar’s been living in the ruins of his home in Gaza City with his mother, 4 brothers & sisters and the family of one of his brothers. Their house is devoid of any furnishings, except a few cushions. On Sunday morning, he reported that one of his brothers had “fallen, due to hunger.” Even though these journalists receive a monthly salary from AFP, it’s no longer enough to buy food, or they have to pay completely exorbitant prices. The banking system has collapsed, and those who exchange money via online bank accounts charge a commission of up to 40%. AFP no longer has the ability to provide them with a vehicle and there is not enough fuel to allow these journalists to travel for their reporting. Driving a car means becoming a target for Israeli airstrikes. AFP reporters therefore travel on foot or by donkey cart. (alt txt continued in next post)
July 21, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
obumbratta.com
Since you folks seem to like lengthy threads, let's look at visualizing distributions. I'll visualize one data set 16 ways and give some other examples of each chart type. #dataViz
DISTRIBUTIONS: 16 ways to visualize them
July 16, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
draliceevans.bsky.social
Call me basic, but my theory of fertility can be condensed to 6 bullet points:

t.co/uxM6qq4lwx
July 3, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
olihanney.bsky.social
Additionality: What it means & why it matters @voxdev.bsky.social

Before taking credit for offsetting carbon/reducing emissions, organisations need to ask: Would this have happened anyway?

Non-additional projects are common, but economists have offered solutions ⤵️ voxdev.org/topic/energy...
Additionality: What it means & why it’s crucial in the fight against climate change
Before taking credit for offsetting carbon or reducing emissions, organisations need to ask: Would this have happened anyway?
voxdev.org
June 30, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
rmkubinec.bsky.social
🚨 New draft 🚨

Measuring the Emperor's Clothes: Estimating Latent Opposition to Authoritarian Regimes with Randomized Response Qs

Want to know how much support a dictator really has? You might have heard of a list experiment... but we've got something *so* much better.

Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
our abstract: While many studies of public opinion in authoritarian regimes rely on list experi- ments to overcome sensitivity bias, we show in this paper that a different technique, the crosswise variant of the randomized response design, has superior performance at measuring latent opposition to authoritarian regimes with fewer assumptions. To show the power of this design, we randomly assigned a panel of 924 Tunisian survey respondents to receive either a direct question about support for Tunisian President Kais Saied or a randomized response question. Our results reveal that between 10% to 30% of Tunisians oppose the president but would not report this opposition on a direct question. We further employed a Bayesian parameterization of the randomized response design to decompose the sensitivity bias and model latent opposition and bias as a function of survey covariates. We find that ideolog- ical and policy disagreement with the president strongly predicts latent opposition, but that these same measures are negatively related to sensitivity bias. As a result, we show that respondents who are ideologically closer to the president–that is, the moderate opposition–tend to be more afraid of reporting their resistance to the regime than the more radical opposition. estimated latent support for kais saied from randomized response model -- about 50%
June 20, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
olihanney.bsky.social
Unintended consequences: When policy backfires in unforeseen ways

I have written on @voxdev.bsky.social about what we can learn from when policies go wrong, from the war on drugs, biodiversity, digitisation, prisons, and more: voxdev.org/topic/uninte...
Unintended consequences: When policy backfires in unforeseen ways
Evidence on VoxDev has shed light on many examples of unintended consequences in economics. What have we learned from when things go wrong?
voxdev.org
May 22, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
undercoverhist.bsky.social
A splendid 4 episodes series on PhD supervision from the "Ceteris Never Paribus" podcast

Produced by @mariabach.bsky.social, based on 2 years of interviews w/ supervisors & students, w/ fun, emotional & deep reflections about intellectual challenges and personal struggles

ceterisneverparibus.net
May 16, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
antoinezalc.bsky.social
May 5, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Reposted by Jules Gazeaud
deanyang.bsky.social
As cardinals gather to elect a new pope, I found Philip Shenon's new book, "Jesus Wept," to be fascinating reading! A biography of popes and history of Catholic Church from WW2 (Pius XII) to Pope Francis. Highly recommended!
@philipshenon.bsky.social
#EconSky #Religion
April 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM