William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
Russia Just Did Something Utterly Bizarre in Venezuela
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 7, 2025 at 6:35 PM
If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
November 4, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 AM
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
How Ukraine Intercepts Russian Drones and Glide Bombs (And What NATO Is Doing about the Problem)
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
October 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
October 9, 2025 at 7:52 PM
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
October 6, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
October 5, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are.
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
October 4, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are.
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
Game Changer: How the U.S. Is Helping Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 3, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
Inside the Plan to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM
A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
September 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
Three Russian Fighters Just Entered Estonian Air Space. What's Putin's Plan?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 19, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
September 19, 2025 at 4:11 PM
With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
There is a bunch of discussion of using Turkey’s zero-tolerance policy from 2015 as a template for handling Russia today. But the comparison is much more complicated.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
September 17, 2025 at 4:14 PM
There is a bunch of discussion of using Turkey’s zero-tolerance policy from 2015 as a template for handling Russia today. But the comparison is much more complicated.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.
September 15, 2025 at 6:15 PM
I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.
New air alerts in Poland and Romania, just a couple of hours after I posted this video. It is the first test of the "Eastern Sentry" counterstrategy. With this kind of frequency, though, we are inching closer to a more kinetic Western response.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...
Time for Action: NATO’s Newly-Announced Plan to Counter Russia’s Drones
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 13, 2025 at 5:18 PM
New air alerts in Poland and Romania, just a couple of hours after I posted this video. It is the first test of the "Eastern Sentry" counterstrategy. With this kind of frequency, though, we are inching closer to a more kinetic Western response.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...
What's will Europe do in the aftermath of last night's drone incursions? Here are my initial thoughts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...
Poland Just Shot Down Russian Drones. Here's NATO's Next Move.
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 10, 2025 at 6:53 PM
What's will Europe do in the aftermath of last night's drone incursions? Here are my initial thoughts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...
As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.
September 10, 2025 at 2:10 PM
As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.
Today's video is a detailed look at Ukraine's strategy strategy over the last month plus of refinery attacks. It is actually *two* separate campaigns, and they have interesting interactions with the broader strategies Ukraine and Western partners are pursuing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
Ukraine's New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Today's video is a detailed look at Ukraine's strategy strategy over the last month plus of refinery attacks. It is actually *two* separate campaigns, and they have interesting interactions with the broader strategies Ukraine and Western partners are pursuing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
I want to put some context behind the Politico report that the next U.S. National Defense Strategy will prioritize the homeland, not China and Russia. I think this is likely being misinterpreted in light of an earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. 🧵
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJ...
Russia's Axis of Influence: Inside the 2025 U.S. Threat Assessment
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
www.youtube.com
September 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
I want to put some context behind the Politico report that the next U.S. National Defense Strategy will prioritize the homeland, not China and Russia. I think this is likely being misinterpreted in light of an earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. 🧵
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJ...
My best efforts to track all of Ukraine's successful attacks on energy infrastructure over the current campaign. Only production and transport included, not fuel storage.
September 5, 2025 at 3:40 PM
My best efforts to track all of Ukraine's successful attacks on energy infrastructure over the current campaign. Only production and transport included, not fuel storage.
I was halfway through writing about the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Venezuela when the strike happened yesterday. Had to make some significant revisions, but at least it is timely!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0Oi...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0Oi...
Why the United States Might Invade Venezuela
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 3, 2025 at 2:30 PM
I was halfway through writing about the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Venezuela when the strike happened yesterday. Had to make some significant revisions, but at least it is timely!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0Oi...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0Oi...
This whole Pentagon pizza thing from last night is an embarrassment:
1) It is first “reported” by an outlet known for sensationalism
2) The headline does not match the article’s content
3) The Internet reads headline and has conversation that pretends like it is true
1) It is first “reported” by an outlet known for sensationalism
2) The headline does not match the article’s content
3) The Internet reads headline and has conversation that pretends like it is true
August 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
This whole Pentagon pizza thing from last night is an embarrassment:
1) It is first “reported” by an outlet known for sensationalism
2) The headline does not match the article’s content
3) The Internet reads headline and has conversation that pretends like it is true
1) It is first “reported” by an outlet known for sensationalism
2) The headline does not match the article’s content
3) The Internet reads headline and has conversation that pretends like it is true
It’s a favorite pastime among Kremlin watchers.
Frankly I’m surprised more comparativists aren’t saying, “Aw that’s so cute. America’s having its first little premature rumor and speculation frenzy about the autocrat’s death after his public absence for a brief period” (common in authoritarian regimes)
August 30, 2025 at 1:08 PM
It’s a favorite pastime among Kremlin watchers.