William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
Ever feel like you walked into lines on maps halfway through and never fully understood what was going on? Well, here is 105 minutes of Crisis Bargaining Theory 101.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...
What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
www.youtube.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:07 PM
Ever feel like you walked into lines on maps halfway through and never fully understood what was going on? Well, here is 105 minutes of Crisis Bargaining Theory 101.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...
Nuclear war has started---and ended. Your government has just been destroyed. But you still control 16 nuclear-tipped missiles. What's your next step?
How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...
How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...
World War III Just Ended. You Lost. You Have 16 Nuclear-Tipped Missiles. What Do You Do?
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
www.youtube.com
January 28, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Nuclear war has started---and ended. Your government has just been destroyed. But you still control 16 nuclear-tipped missiles. What's your next step?
How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...
How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...
I have completely revamped my IRL introduction to international relations class. Today, I published the first lecture out of the batch! I will publish a new one every Saturday for the next three months. They will be exclusive to my secondary channel.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...
How to Think Like a Geopolitics Analyst
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
www.youtube.com
January 24, 2026 at 4:04 PM
I have completely revamped my IRL introduction to international relations class. Today, I published the first lecture out of the batch! I will publish a new one every Saturday for the next three months. They will be exclusive to my secondary channel.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...
If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...
The Hidden Reason the West Needs to Send Ukraine More Drones *Now*
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:05 PM
If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...
Ten days after the Fracas in Caracas, we take a look at what happened, and how Venezuela's military relationship with Russia left some major gaps in the former's defenses.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...
Why Russia Failed to Help Venezuela: Ukraine, Hardware, and Attrition
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 13, 2026 at 8:48 PM
Ten days after the Fracas in Caracas, we take a look at what happened, and how Venezuela's military relationship with Russia left some major gaps in the former's defenses.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...
Warning: contains dramatic reenactment of the 2018 NATO Summit, which gives some insight on the origin of Donald Trump's apparent animosity toward Denmark.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...
“Weapons Grade Stupid”? The U.S. Plan for Greenland
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 9:58 PM
Warning: contains dramatic reenactment of the 2018 NATO Summit, which gives some insight on the origin of Donald Trump's apparent animosity toward Denmark.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...
Best headline of the year so far. It reads like clickbait but is 100% true to the story.
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
France delays G7 to avoid clash with White House cage fighting on Trump’s birthday
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said the new schedule is “the result of our consultations with G7 partners.”
www.politico.eu
January 12, 2026 at 12:02 AM
Best headline of the year so far. It reads like clickbait but is 100% true to the story.
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
Last month, I attended a NATO cyber security exercise in Estonia. They showed me basically nothing. But that was by design, and highlights a broader point about why states run military exercises.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...
I Went to a NATO Exercise. They Showed Me Nothing. That Was the Point.
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 10, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Last month, I attended a NATO cyber security exercise in Estonia. They showed me basically nothing. But that was by design, and highlights a broader point about why states run military exercises.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...
Fallout from the capture of two tankers today, plus some analysis on what is happening with the oil blockade in Venezuela.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...
The U.S. Just Seized a Russian Flagged Tanker—Because It Can, and Moscow Can’t Stop It
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 7, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Fallout from the capture of two tankers today, plus some analysis on what is happening with the oil blockade in Venezuela.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...
Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.
January 7, 2026 at 11:05 AM
Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.
Strategies like what the Trump Administration is doing in Venezuela rarely work. Why do countries keep trying despite that? The answer may have to do with a line or two. And perhaps a map as well. (Or a generic bar of goodies.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...
Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Works. Why Do Countries Keep Trying?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 6, 2026 at 9:20 PM
Strategies like what the Trump Administration is doing in Venezuela rarely work. Why do countries keep trying despite that? The answer may have to do with a line or two. And perhaps a map as well. (Or a generic bar of goodies.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...
The Trump Administration has not articulated a clear plan, but the lack of a plan is the plan. And what can the new Venezuelan president do to counter it?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...
What Is Trump’s Strategy, and How Will the New Venezuelan President Counter It?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2026 at 10:05 PM
The Trump Administration has not articulated a clear plan, but the lack of a plan is the plan. And what can the new Venezuelan president do to counter it?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...
First images of Delcy Rodriguez being sworn in. Working on a video right now about what her strategy is going forward.
January 5, 2026 at 8:05 PM
First images of Delcy Rodriguez being sworn in. Working on a video right now about what her strategy is going forward.
With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war.
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
How Maduro’s Capture Upends the World at War
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 4, 2026 at 6:23 PM
With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war.
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap.
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
The United States Has Captured Maduro. What Happens Next?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 3, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap.
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.
The real question people want answered is “did William sleep last night”. And the answer is most likely “no“.
Not why I had on my list for, checks notes, day 3 of 2026.
Not why I had on my list for, checks notes, day 3 of 2026.
January 3, 2026 at 12:44 PM
I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.
Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.
Good morning to everyone but especially to @gametheory101.bsky.social
January 3, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.
Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
Foreign nationals held by Iraq during the 1990–1991 Gulf crisis - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_nationals_held_by_Iraq_during_the_1990–1991_Gulf_crisis
January 2, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it?
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
Who Secretly Destroyed Two Russian Nuclear Reactors?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it?
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
How Zelensky Successfully Deflected the Disastrous U.S.-Russia Peace Proposal
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US
After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war.
The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulat...
kyivindependent.com
December 24, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say
It would be the second such operation this weekend and the third in less than two weeks.
www.reuters.com
December 21, 2025 at 9:14 PM
One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Exclusive: US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say
This would mark the second time in recent weeks that the United States has seized a tanker near Venezuela.
www.reuters.com
December 20, 2025 at 8:51 PM
It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
Did Ukraine Just Effectively Disable a Third of Russia’s Shadow Fleet in One Strike?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight.
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
The Blockade Game: Two Big New Moves in the Global Conflict
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
December 17, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight.
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A