William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war.
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
How Maduro’s Capture Upends the World at War
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 4, 2026 at 6:23 PM
With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war.
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap.
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
The United States Has Captured Maduro. What Happens Next?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 3, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap.
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.
The real question people want answered is “did William sleep last night”. And the answer is most likely “no“.
Not why I had on my list for, checks notes, day 3 of 2026.
Not why I had on my list for, checks notes, day 3 of 2026.
January 3, 2026 at 12:44 PM
I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.
Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.
Good morning to everyone but especially to @gametheory101.bsky.social
January 3, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.
Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
Foreign nationals held by Iraq during the 1990–1991 Gulf crisis - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_nationals_held_by_Iraq_during_the_1990–1991_Gulf_crisis
January 2, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it?
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
Who Secretly Destroyed Two Russian Nuclear Reactors?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
January 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it?
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
How Zelensky Successfully Deflected the Disastrous U.S.-Russia Peace Proposal
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US
After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war.
The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulat...
kyivindependent.com
December 24, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say
It would be the second such operation this weekend and the third in less than two weeks.
www.reuters.com
December 21, 2025 at 9:14 PM
One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Exclusive: US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say
This would mark the second time in recent weeks that the United States has seized a tanker near Venezuela.
www.reuters.com
December 20, 2025 at 8:51 PM
It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
Did Ukraine Just Effectively Disable a Third of Russia’s Shadow Fleet in One Strike?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight.
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
The Blockade Game: Two Big New Moves in the Global Conflict
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
December 17, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight.
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
This might be the greatest exchange in the history of my channel. (The rain commentary is from today’s video.)
December 15, 2025 at 11:07 PM
This might be the greatest exchange in the history of my channel. (The rain commentary is from today’s video.)
Russia claimed control of Kupiansk for several weeks, "completely and in its entirety." Then Zelensky showed up at the city, capping Ukraine's best offensive move in months.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...
How Ukraine Recaptured a Key Frontline City
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 15, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Russia claimed control of Kupiansk for several weeks, "completely and in its entirety." Then Zelensky showed up at the city, capping Ukraine's best offensive move in months.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...
(Almost) back to back comments.
December 14, 2025 at 8:32 PM
(Almost) back to back comments.
Ukraine and the United States are currently engaged in a pair of separate campaigns that target oil tankers. This is a much bigger story than the amount of attention it is currently receiving. And they will have interesting crossover effects.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...
The World Oil War: Inside Ukraine’s Expanded Campaign and the Huge U.S. Seizure
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Ukraine and the United States are currently engaged in a pair of separate campaigns that target oil tankers. This is a much bigger story than the amount of attention it is currently receiving. And they will have interesting crossover effects.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...
With all of the discussion about a ceasefire (plus Thanksgiving in the U.S.), this was easy to miss. Ukraine has started a new phase of its energy campaign, now specifically targeting production, export terminals, the shadow fleet. Updated timeline below. Full video in the next couple of days.
December 12, 2025 at 8:05 PM
With all of the discussion about a ceasefire (plus Thanksgiving in the U.S.), this was easy to miss. Ukraine has started a new phase of its energy campaign, now specifically targeting production, export terminals, the shadow fleet. Updated timeline below. Full video in the next couple of days.
I recently travelled to Estonia and got deep into the bizarre circumstances that turned into a cybersecurity titan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...
How This Statue Turned a Small State into a Cybersecurity Superpower...
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I recently travelled to Estonia and got deep into the bizarre circumstances that turned into a cybersecurity titan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...
Deep dive into the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, how it lacks a coherent narrative, and all of the self-contradictions therein.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...
Self-Contradictory: Where the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Goes Wrong
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Deep dive into the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, how it lacks a coherent narrative, and all of the self-contradictions therein.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...
The second Kremlin phone call leak should have been a bigger story. Combined with the leaked 28 point peace plan, we now know what Russia thinks is the maximum it can extract fro. Ukraine.
And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands.
youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands.
youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
The Kremlin’s Leaked Peace Plan Proves That Russia Is Weaker Than It Seems
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
December 6, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The second Kremlin phone call leak should have been a bigger story. Combined with the leaked 28 point peace plan, we now know what Russia thinks is the maximum it can extract fro. Ukraine.
And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands.
youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands.
youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
This is significant polling. Europe's Hague pledge has rallied support for NATO among Republicans, and frustration with Trump has kept Democrats support of NATO very high.
December 6, 2025 at 5:07 PM
This is significant polling. Europe's Hague pledge has rallied support for NATO among Republicans, and frustration with Trump has kept Democrats support of NATO very high.
Sure, what Witkoff said according to the leak is bad. But the real story here is that there is a leak at all. Thinking about who did it and why is the interesting part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
Why the Witkoff Leak Is Way Worse Than It Seems
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Sure, what Witkoff said according to the leak is bad. But the real story here is that there is a leak at all. Thinking about who did it and why is the interesting part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
The Ukraine-U.S. Peace Deal: The Good, the Bad, and the White House Power Struggle
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia.
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
Why Europe's New Peace Deal Showcases the Power of Agenda Setting
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:42 PM
9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia.
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
Inside the Leaked Ukraine Deal: The Kremlin's Games, Europe’s Failure, and Trump's Indifference
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 8:04 PM
By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE