Simon Fung
@fungowski.bsky.social
Professional ponderer of the universe
While on a walk, I randomly (mis)remembered the title of this book, and thought it was a banger. The title, it turns out, is from Psalm 137 (“by Babylon …”). Turns out also the author is from Ottawa, and that she stirred up quite a bit of drama with her affair that inspired this book.
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August 31, 2025 at 9:52 PM
While on a walk, I randomly (mis)remembered the title of this book, and thought it was a banger. The title, it turns out, is from Psalm 137 (“by Babylon …”). Turns out also the author is from Ottawa, and that she stirred up quite a bit of drama with her affair that inspired this book.
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I first came across Clayton Christensen years ago on YouTube, and found him insightful. His book How will you measure your life? is his last, and contains his observations on life, which he relates to his observations on business. I’ll just share a couple of thoughts I have on it.
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August 23, 2025 at 7:50 PM
I first came across Clayton Christensen years ago on YouTube, and found him insightful. His book How will you measure your life? is his last, and contains his observations on life, which he relates to his observations on business. I’ll just share a couple of thoughts I have on it.
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The thesis of this book is that low interest rates are bad: they encourage people to borrow recklessly, inflating bubbles that cause misery when popped. Unsurprisingly, the author is a big fan of Hayek and a critic of Keynes.
But high rates have a cost too, in reduced economic activity.
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But high rates have a cost too, in reduced economic activity.
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August 17, 2025 at 9:54 PM
The thesis of this book is that low interest rates are bad: they encourage people to borrow recklessly, inflating bubbles that cause misery when popped. Unsurprisingly, the author is a big fan of Hayek and a critic of Keynes.
But high rates have a cost too, in reduced economic activity.
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But high rates have a cost too, in reduced economic activity.
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The BoP identity is often stated like this:
Current accounts + Capital accounts = 0
Current accounts involve incomes and expenses, while capital accounts involves changes in assets. A deficit in one means an equal surplus in the other.
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Current accounts + Capital accounts = 0
Current accounts involve incomes and expenses, while capital accounts involves changes in assets. A deficit in one means an equal surplus in the other.
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August 6, 2025 at 7:49 PM
The BoP identity is often stated like this:
Current accounts + Capital accounts = 0
Current accounts involve incomes and expenses, while capital accounts involves changes in assets. A deficit in one means an equal surplus in the other.
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Current accounts + Capital accounts = 0
Current accounts involve incomes and expenses, while capital accounts involves changes in assets. A deficit in one means an equal surplus in the other.
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My deepest takeaway from this book is the idea that people can also be “domesticated,” or adapted to sedentary life in a complex society. It’s basically equivalent to being “civilized,” but without the pro-civilization bias.
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July 24, 2025 at 8:46 PM
My deepest takeaway from this book is the idea that people can also be “domesticated,” or adapted to sedentary life in a complex society. It’s basically equivalent to being “civilized,” but without the pro-civilization bias.
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It’s acceptances from Harvard that’s scarce and hence valuable. You can learn the same things that Harvard grads learn, but without a Harvard degree you aren’t trusted to nearly the same extent. You’d have to earn recognition some other way.
May 13, 2025 at 6:23 PM
It’s acceptances from Harvard that’s scarce and hence valuable. You can learn the same things that Harvard grads learn, but without a Harvard degree you aren’t trusted to nearly the same extent. You’d have to earn recognition some other way.
Sometimes your vote can make a huge difference.
May 11, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Sometimes your vote can make a huge difference.
Just gonna leave this here
(from Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen)
(from Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen)
![The U.S. president—as odd as this may seem—has sole authority to launch America's nuclear weapons.
The president asks permission of no one.
Not the secretary of defense, not the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, not Congress. In 2021, the Congressional Research Service published a review to confirm that the decision to launch nuclear weapons is the president's and the president's alone. "The authority is inherent in his role as commander in chief," the research found. The president "does not need the concurrence of either his [or her] military advisors or the U.S. Congress to order the launch of nuclear weapons.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:46jtx7sydmw2vyzoqadc7oll/bafkreigi5hfjrfxfqs55q56ru4tmea3dhp2vidwfutdwaicg5sxlerkpey@jpeg)
April 28, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Just gonna leave this here
(from Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen)
(from Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen)
Taleb calls these highly improbable yet highly consequential events “black swans.”
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April 25, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Taleb calls these highly improbable yet highly consequential events “black swans.”
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The kind of forecasting described in Superforecasting is based mostly on the frequencies of similar past occurrences. But as Taleb points out, some events are so rare that we don’t even think of asking if they will happen, yet they can be very consequential.
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April 25, 2025 at 9:44 PM
The kind of forecasting described in Superforecasting is based mostly on the frequencies of similar past occurrences. But as Taleb points out, some events are so rare that we don’t even think of asking if they will happen, yet they can be very consequential.
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Another book I read recently. Grim, gruesome, informative, and a NY Times bestseller!
It goes minute-by-minute through an imaginary scenario where N. Korea launches ICBMs at the continental US. I don’t want to spoil the ending, but let’s just say at the end there isn’t a lot left.
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It goes minute-by-minute through an imaginary scenario where N. Korea launches ICBMs at the continental US. I don’t want to spoil the ending, but let’s just say at the end there isn’t a lot left.
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April 13, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Another book I read recently. Grim, gruesome, informative, and a NY Times bestseller!
It goes minute-by-minute through an imaginary scenario where N. Korea launches ICBMs at the continental US. I don’t want to spoil the ending, but let’s just say at the end there isn’t a lot left.
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It goes minute-by-minute through an imaginary scenario where N. Korea launches ICBMs at the continental US. I don’t want to spoil the ending, but let’s just say at the end there isn’t a lot left.
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Just read this last week, so here’s a summary and a few thoughts.
Forecasting is about estimating the probability of events, especially world events. There is no shortage of pundits, but their predictions tend to be vague. To increase accuracy, both questions and answers need to be precise.
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Forecasting is about estimating the probability of events, especially world events. There is no shortage of pundits, but their predictions tend to be vague. To increase accuracy, both questions and answers need to be precise.
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April 13, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Just read this last week, so here’s a summary and a few thoughts.
Forecasting is about estimating the probability of events, especially world events. There is no shortage of pundits, but their predictions tend to be vague. To increase accuracy, both questions and answers need to be precise.
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Forecasting is about estimating the probability of events, especially world events. There is no shortage of pundits, but their predictions tend to be vague. To increase accuracy, both questions and answers need to be precise.
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This is a great point: even dictators need to be popular to get their way.
Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote, splitting Americans very evenly in their opinions towards him.
Fights between evenly-matched sides are the most intense. I expect an intense fight ahead.
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Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote, splitting Americans very evenly in their opinions towards him.
Fights between evenly-matched sides are the most intense. I expect an intense fight ahead.
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February 14, 2025 at 5:53 AM
This is a great point: even dictators need to be popular to get their way.
Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote, splitting Americans very evenly in their opinions towards him.
Fights between evenly-matched sides are the most intense. I expect an intense fight ahead.
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Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote, splitting Americans very evenly in their opinions towards him.
Fights between evenly-matched sides are the most intense. I expect an intense fight ahead.
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When the US president and the courts come into conflict, which side will the US armed forces and law enforcement follow? We’re about to see.
February 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
When the US president and the courts come into conflict, which side will the US armed forces and law enforcement follow? We’re about to see.
The pattern was last broken by Yogesh Raut in the episode that aired Jan 13, 2023. That was when Yogesh also won an extra 3rd game, when he was supposed to only win 2.
And Yogesh went on to win the Tournament of Champions.
Perhaps great things await Rishabh as well!
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And Yogesh went on to win the Tournament of Champions.
Perhaps great things await Rishabh as well!
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October 19, 2024 at 4:00 AM
The pattern was last broken by Yogesh Raut in the episode that aired Jan 13, 2023. That was when Yogesh also won an extra 3rd game, when he was supposed to only win 2.
And Yogesh went on to win the Tournament of Champions.
Perhaps great things await Rishabh as well!
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And Yogesh went on to win the Tournament of Champions.
Perhaps great things await Rishabh as well!
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The pattern: when a champion has a win streak shorter than the preceding champion, the streaks are supposed to fall or at least not rise until they go back to being 1 game long.
So Wuppalapati won one more game than he was supposed to.
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So Wuppalapati won one more game than he was supposed to.
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October 19, 2024 at 3:59 AM
The pattern: when a champion has a win streak shorter than the preceding champion, the streaks are supposed to fall or at least not rise until they go back to being 1 game long.
So Wuppalapati won one more game than he was supposed to.
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So Wuppalapati won one more game than he was supposed to.
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There’s a common belief that southern Chinese dialects are more conservative than northern. In some ways, yes, and you could argue that they are overall. But in other ways, northern dialects are actually more conservative.
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September 1, 2024 at 11:38 PM
There’s a common belief that southern Chinese dialects are more conservative than northern. In some ways, yes, and you could argue that they are overall. But in other ways, northern dialects are actually more conservative.
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Though ralph can also mean “to vomit,” but it might have come from the name.
July 29, 2024 at 4:43 PM
Though ralph can also mean “to vomit,” but it might have come from the name.
The one exception to The Pattern was Yogesh Raut, who later went on to win the 2024 Jeopardy Tournament of Champions, beating even James Holzhauer. And Yogesh’s streak was only one game longer than predicted.
That’s how hard it is to break The Pattern.
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That’s how hard it is to break The Pattern.
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July 25, 2024 at 4:13 AM
The one exception to The Pattern was Yogesh Raut, who later went on to win the 2024 Jeopardy Tournament of Champions, beating even James Holzhauer. And Yogesh’s streak was only one game longer than predicted.
That’s how hard it is to break The Pattern.
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That’s how hard it is to break The Pattern.
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The Pattern: win streaks rise from 1 to some peak without falling (but can repeat), then fall back to 1 without rising (but can repeat).
For example, here are the streaks from the last year.
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For example, here are the streaks from the last year.
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July 25, 2024 at 4:12 AM
The Pattern: win streaks rise from 1 to some peak without falling (but can repeat), then fall back to 1 without rising (but can repeat).
For example, here are the streaks from the last year.
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For example, here are the streaks from the last year.
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Biden had to quit because Democrats who called on him to give up on re-election pretty much ruined his campaign by doing so.
(I should have posted this earlier, to make me look prescient. Luckily I wrote it down in Notes, so I have a timestamp.)
(I should have posted this earlier, to make me look prescient. Luckily I wrote it down in Notes, so I have a timestamp.)
July 21, 2024 at 7:13 PM
Biden had to quit because Democrats who called on him to give up on re-election pretty much ruined his campaign by doing so.
(I should have posted this earlier, to make me look prescient. Luckily I wrote it down in Notes, so I have a timestamp.)
(I should have posted this earlier, to make me look prescient. Luckily I wrote it down in Notes, so I have a timestamp.)
A proportional representation system does make it easier for parties formed by more minor schisms to gain influence. But as long as the minor schisms are greatly overshadowed by the biggest schism, the influence of the smaller parties will still be limited.
Example: Malta
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Example: Malta
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July 17, 2024 at 4:57 AM
A proportional representation system does make it easier for parties formed by more minor schisms to gain influence. But as long as the minor schisms are greatly overshadowed by the biggest schism, the influence of the smaller parties will still be limited.
Example: Malta
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Example: Malta
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Who owns that new house once it’s built, and all the other new houses in the future?
The problem is that people don’t just compete for existing resources, but also for claims on future resources.
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The problem is that people don’t just compete for existing resources, but also for claims on future resources.
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June 26, 2024 at 9:59 PM
Who owns that new house once it’s built, and all the other new houses in the future?
The problem is that people don’t just compete for existing resources, but also for claims on future resources.
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The problem is that people don’t just compete for existing resources, but also for claims on future resources.
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Voiceless stops after /*s/, however, escaped Grimm’s Law, which would have turned them into fricatives. So Germanic stops after /*s/ are still the same in other non-Germanic Indo-European languages (eg Latin stāre, English stand).
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June 8, 2024 at 3:16 AM
Voiceless stops after /*s/, however, escaped Grimm’s Law, which would have turned them into fricatives. So Germanic stops after /*s/ are still the same in other non-Germanic Indo-European languages (eg Latin stāre, English stand).
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Russia pivoted away from Armenia towards Azerbaijian at least partly because a more democratically-oriented leader came to power in Armenia.
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www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p...
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www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p...
June 5, 2024 at 4:16 AM
Russia pivoted away from Armenia towards Azerbaijian at least partly because a more democratically-oriented leader came to power in Armenia.
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www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p...
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www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p...