Aaron Songer
@fulphl.bsky.social
Follow Fulham, Philadelphia Union and have interest in politics and the law.
Mildly interested in data and unusual expectations.
Mildly interested in data and unusual expectations.
Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/u...
The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition.
Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.
The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition.
Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.
Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades
www.nytimes.com
July 3, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/u...
The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition.
Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.
The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition.
Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.
Even if most students visas aren't revoked, would a parent send their child to the US knowing that the rules could change at any time. You send your kid to get a degree in four years. If there is a risk that the rules change two years in, why would they come?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/u...
U.S. Will ‘Aggressively’ Revoke Visas of Chinese Students, Rubio Says
www.nytimes.com
May 30, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Even if most students visas aren't revoked, would a parent send their child to the US knowing that the rules could change at any time. You send your kid to get a degree in four years. If there is a risk that the rules change two years in, why would they come?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/u...
I do not know how this is anything but good news for the Democrats. It's a large flying billboard that travels with the president. Every job loss...every person uninsured...will be contrasted with the opulence of this plane and costs to retrofit.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u...
U.S. Formally Accepts Luxury Jet From Qatar for Trump
www.nytimes.com
May 21, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I do not know how this is anything but good news for the Democrats. It's a large flying billboard that travels with the president. Every job loss...every person uninsured...will be contrasted with the opulence of this plane and costs to retrofit.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u...
WSJ analysis is pretty good, but I often find their best points are buried in a few sentences in the middle of the analysis like here.
The fact is that China does not have elections and the US does. China’s currently in the waiting game, not in the negotiating game.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
The fact is that China does not have elections and the US does. China’s currently in the waiting game, not in the negotiating game.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
April 24, 2025 at 5:57 PM
WSJ analysis is pretty good, but I often find their best points are buried in a few sentences in the middle of the analysis like here.
The fact is that China does not have elections and the US does. China’s currently in the waiting game, not in the negotiating game.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
The fact is that China does not have elections and the US does. China’s currently in the waiting game, not in the negotiating game.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
The thing is Powell is just one member of a 12 member committee (Federal Open Market Committee) that sets interest rates. For Trump to control interest rates he’d need to fire seven members and find seven replacements.
I suspect that’s the main dynamic saving Powell.
I suspect that’s the main dynamic saving Powell.
April 21, 2025 at 7:03 PM
The thing is Powell is just one member of a 12 member committee (Federal Open Market Committee) that sets interest rates. For Trump to control interest rates he’d need to fire seven members and find seven replacements.
I suspect that’s the main dynamic saving Powell.
I suspect that’s the main dynamic saving Powell.
From WSJ. I’m not sure how this doesn’t impact recruitment to the military.
No one wants to enter an organization that is in chaos. Particularly so when one’s life is literally on the line.
No one wants to enter an organization that is in chaos. Particularly so when one’s life is literally on the line.
April 21, 2025 at 11:32 AM
From WSJ. I’m not sure how this doesn’t impact recruitment to the military.
No one wants to enter an organization that is in chaos. Particularly so when one’s life is literally on the line.
No one wants to enter an organization that is in chaos. Particularly so when one’s life is literally on the line.
Trumps 4D chess seems more like a new player that learns that the queen is the most powerful piece and releases them up the board trying to attack everything.
They soon realize they are exposed and try to retreat and bring other pieces up. Turns into a shambles.
Ultimately it’s checkmate.
They soon realize they are exposed and try to retreat and bring other pieces up. Turns into a shambles.
Ultimately it’s checkmate.
April 16, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Trumps 4D chess seems more like a new player that learns that the queen is the most powerful piece and releases them up the board trying to attack everything.
They soon realize they are exposed and try to retreat and bring other pieces up. Turns into a shambles.
Ultimately it’s checkmate.
They soon realize they are exposed and try to retreat and bring other pieces up. Turns into a shambles.
Ultimately it’s checkmate.
Not getting a lot of attention, but the government also required that Harvard implement a mask ban. Interesting because we can see ICE agents are consistently using masks. Per the government, this should lead to penalties of not less than suspension.
April 16, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Not getting a lot of attention, but the government also required that Harvard implement a mask ban. Interesting because we can see ICE agents are consistently using masks. Per the government, this should lead to penalties of not less than suspension.
Small beer, but I paid my federal taxes yesterday and did not receive an email confirmation. Typically, when I pay taxes, I get an email confirmation. I received my state email confirmation and looked at my bank statement and cash was taken out of my account.
Just wondering about basic IRS systems.
Just wondering about basic IRS systems.
April 16, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Small beer, but I paid my federal taxes yesterday and did not receive an email confirmation. Typically, when I pay taxes, I get an email confirmation. I received my state email confirmation and looked at my bank statement and cash was taken out of my account.
Just wondering about basic IRS systems.
Just wondering about basic IRS systems.
Here’s the thing about a trade war with China and negotiating leverage.
While the next US election (national) isn’t until 2026, that is still well before China’s next election.
While the next US election (national) isn’t until 2026, that is still well before China’s next election.
April 13, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Here’s the thing about a trade war with China and negotiating leverage.
While the next US election (national) isn’t until 2026, that is still well before China’s next election.
While the next US election (national) isn’t until 2026, that is still well before China’s next election.
PREDICTION: Powell gets fired for not lowering rates fast enough. Open secret is that he wants to get fired to avoid the blame of the coming recession.
Other fed governors resign or retire early causing more turmoil.
Other fed governors resign or retire early causing more turmoil.
April 12, 2025 at 2:53 AM
PREDICTION: Powell gets fired for not lowering rates fast enough. Open secret is that he wants to get fired to avoid the blame of the coming recession.
Other fed governors resign or retire early causing more turmoil.
Other fed governors resign or retire early causing more turmoil.
This guy is fighting (effectively) for the rule of law while large law firms cave to the whims of the administration.
We will read about Mr Sandoval-Moshenberg in history books while the partners of large law firm lawyers will only show up in their country club membership records.
We will read about Mr Sandoval-Moshenberg in history books while the partners of large law firm lawyers will only show up in their country club membership records.
April 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
This guy is fighting (effectively) for the rule of law while large law firms cave to the whims of the administration.
We will read about Mr Sandoval-Moshenberg in history books while the partners of large law firm lawyers will only show up in their country club membership records.
We will read about Mr Sandoval-Moshenberg in history books while the partners of large law firm lawyers will only show up in their country club membership records.
Leaving Chinese tariffs on and pausing other tariffs should significantly support Samsung vs Apple. Samsung manufacture in Korea and Vietnam now both at 10% tariff.
Apple mostly manufactures in China with 100%+ tariff and some in India.
Apple mostly manufactures in China with 100%+ tariff and some in India.
April 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Leaving Chinese tariffs on and pausing other tariffs should significantly support Samsung vs Apple. Samsung manufacture in Korea and Vietnam now both at 10% tariff.
Apple mostly manufactures in China with 100%+ tariff and some in India.
Apple mostly manufactures in China with 100%+ tariff and some in India.
PREDICTION: foreign governments will drag out trade negotiations.
The USMCA, which was basically a slightly updated NAFTA, took over 2 years to sign.
As US started this trade war, it will be under political pressure earlier than other countries. This flips negotiating power.
The USMCA, which was basically a slightly updated NAFTA, took over 2 years to sign.
As US started this trade war, it will be under political pressure earlier than other countries. This flips negotiating power.
April 9, 2025 at 3:27 AM
PREDICTION: foreign governments will drag out trade negotiations.
The USMCA, which was basically a slightly updated NAFTA, took over 2 years to sign.
As US started this trade war, it will be under political pressure earlier than other countries. This flips negotiating power.
The USMCA, which was basically a slightly updated NAFTA, took over 2 years to sign.
As US started this trade war, it will be under political pressure earlier than other countries. This flips negotiating power.
Looking forward to news articles on Americans traveling to Mexico to purchase iPhones. This will be the new smuggling operation in 2025.
April 9, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Looking forward to news articles on Americans traveling to Mexico to purchase iPhones. This will be the new smuggling operation in 2025.
I’m surprised by the lack of comment on the contradictory goals of tariffs to raise money and bring jobs to US.
If manufacturing moves to US then there will be no imports and therefore no tariff revenue.
Can’t have both.
If manufacturing moves to US then there will be no imports and therefore no tariff revenue.
Can’t have both.
April 5, 2025 at 8:28 PM
I’m surprised by the lack of comment on the contradictory goals of tariffs to raise money and bring jobs to US.
If manufacturing moves to US then there will be no imports and therefore no tariff revenue.
Can’t have both.
If manufacturing moves to US then there will be no imports and therefore no tariff revenue.
Can’t have both.
$6 trillion is $23,000 for every adult in the US.
April 5, 2025 at 12:54 AM
$6 trillion is $23,000 for every adult in the US.
Until there are 500 clients signing a brief, I’m afraid this is not enough. I’d take 10 clients.
April 5, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Until there are 500 clients signing a brief, I’m afraid this is not enough. I’d take 10 clients.
The lede is retaliatory tariffs, but then goes on to note restrictions on exports of rare earth elements.
Big difference between paying more for something and not being able to obtain it at all.
Countries will find choke points and stop the export of those intermediate goods.
tinyurl.com/37caeevm
Big difference between paying more for something and not being able to obtain it at all.
Countries will find choke points and stop the export of those intermediate goods.
tinyurl.com/37caeevm
April 4, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The lede is retaliatory tariffs, but then goes on to note restrictions on exports of rare earth elements.
Big difference between paying more for something and not being able to obtain it at all.
Countries will find choke points and stop the export of those intermediate goods.
tinyurl.com/37caeevm
Big difference between paying more for something and not being able to obtain it at all.
Countries will find choke points and stop the export of those intermediate goods.
tinyurl.com/37caeevm
Many people are focused on reciprocal tariffs. In trump tariff response 2.0 countries will take a different tact.
For example, typical car has 30,000 parts. Even if US made car, some of those parts are going to come from overseas.
For example, typical car has 30,000 parts. Even if US made car, some of those parts are going to come from overseas.
April 4, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Many people are focused on reciprocal tariffs. In trump tariff response 2.0 countries will take a different tact.
For example, typical car has 30,000 parts. Even if US made car, some of those parts are going to come from overseas.
For example, typical car has 30,000 parts. Even if US made car, some of those parts are going to come from overseas.
From WSJ, it took a global pandemic to lose this much US market value in a day.
April 4, 2025 at 1:36 AM
From WSJ, it took a global pandemic to lose this much US market value in a day.
images.app.goo.gl/o1EvgYFvMm1M...
PREDICTION: I expect we will have news stories in a few weeks that describe snarls in importing goods because of the inability of customs to clear. Goods will be sitting on docks because system/people required to apply so many different tariff rates are burdened.
PREDICTION: I expect we will have news stories in a few weeks that describe snarls in importing goods because of the inability of customs to clear. Goods will be sitting on docks because system/people required to apply so many different tariff rates are burdened.
Google Image Result for https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/788490bc-5f95-4280-974b-2fbbaa1f6741/chart-ap-jt-250402_1743626800207_hpMain.jpg
images.app.goo.gl
April 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
images.app.goo.gl/o1EvgYFvMm1M...
PREDICTION: I expect we will have news stories in a few weeks that describe snarls in importing goods because of the inability of customs to clear. Goods will be sitting on docks because system/people required to apply so many different tariff rates are burdened.
PREDICTION: I expect we will have news stories in a few weeks that describe snarls in importing goods because of the inability of customs to clear. Goods will be sitting on docks because system/people required to apply so many different tariff rates are burdened.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
PREDICTION: Countries will implement a digital sales or an excise tax based on app usage. It could target US social media companies by having a revenue floor.
Countries point to a combination of tariffs, harm done by companies and monopoly profits as reason for tax.
PREDICTION: Countries will implement a digital sales or an excise tax based on app usage. It could target US social media companies by having a revenue floor.
Countries point to a combination of tariffs, harm done by companies and monopoly profits as reason for tax.
Exclusive | Zuckerberg Lobbies Trump to Avoid Meta Antitrust Trial
Meta Platforms CEO has visited the White House three times since the start of Trump’s second term
www.wsj.com
April 3, 2025 at 1:00 PM
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
PREDICTION: Countries will implement a digital sales or an excise tax based on app usage. It could target US social media companies by having a revenue floor.
Countries point to a combination of tariffs, harm done by companies and monopoly profits as reason for tax.
PREDICTION: Countries will implement a digital sales or an excise tax based on app usage. It could target US social media companies by having a revenue floor.
Countries point to a combination of tariffs, harm done by companies and monopoly profits as reason for tax.
Brutal but fair analysis. How can someone trust their lawyer to defend them if they won’t defend themselves.
I was working for White House Counsel Fred Fielding on March 30, 1981, the day John Hinckley attempted to assassinate President Ronald Reagan.
April 3, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Brutal but fair analysis. How can someone trust their lawyer to defend them if they won’t defend themselves.