FPLFutbolmetrix
@fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social
FPL and SerieAFantasy account. Two top 2k finishes, once in distant FPL prehistory, once in 2023-2024. #AnalyticsFC, FPLReview Elite 1000
But what if we look instead of average ownership of just the *10* most popular players? Now E64 and Content Creators league are *much* more concentrated than AE64 👀
June 3, 2025 at 10:57 AM
But what if we look instead of average ownership of just the *10* most popular players? Now E64 and Content Creators league are *much* more concentrated than AE64 👀
Same table, but sorted
June 3, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Same table, but sorted
I was talking about ownership of players. This is the updated table including E64: average ownership rate of the 30 most popular players is almost identical between AE64 and E64 (44.27% versus 44.37%)
June 3, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I was talking about ownership of players. This is the updated table including E64: average ownership rate of the 30 most popular players is almost identical between AE64 and E64 (44.27% versus 44.37%)
Average ownership of top 30 most owned players (by top 50 ranked managers) in GW38 for selected leagues, from @fplgameweek.com. Turns out that analytics leagues (AE64, AEQ64, BW, FPLOptimized) had slightly more concentrated ownership than others
June 2, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Average ownership of top 30 most owned players (by top 50 ranked managers) in GW38 for selected leagues, from @fplgameweek.com. Turns out that analytics leagues (AE64, AEQ64, BW, FPLOptimized) had slightly more concentrated ownership than others
#SerieAFantasy GW23: 61 all out, OR 109-->115. Passing on Retegui+Zaccagni in previous GW proving to be very costly
February 6, 2025 at 3:16 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW23: 61 all out, OR 109-->115. Passing on Retegui+Zaccagni in previous GW proving to be very costly
Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs
January 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs
#SerieAFantasy GW22: 59 all out, OR 86 --> 100. 12 week green streak over, we go again in 23
January 27, 2025 at 1:31 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW22: 59 all out, OR 86 --> 100. 12 week green streak over, we go again in 23
GW23: 54 all out, 1.6M -->1.8M. When is it gonna end, Robbie?
January 26, 2025 at 10:19 PM
GW23: 54 all out, 1.6M -->1.8M. When is it gonna end, Robbie?
#SerieAFantasy GW21: 78 all out, OR 93-->86. Still slowly climbing.
January 21, 2025 at 10:38 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW21: 78 all out, OR 93-->86. Still slowly climbing.
GW22: 48 all out, OR, 1.64M --> 1.58M. New season objective: top 400K, roughly the average of my last 5 casual seasons before becoming an engaged manager 😔
January 20, 2025 at 11:12 PM
GW22: 48 all out, OR, 1.64M --> 1.58M. New season objective: top 400K, roughly the average of my last 5 casual seasons before becoming an engaged manager 😔
GW21: 61 all out, 1.5M --> 1.6M. This season is humbling.
January 17, 2025 at 12:38 AM
GW21: 61 all out, 1.5M --> 1.6M. This season is humbling.
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
January 16, 2025 at 5:54 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
January 16, 2025 at 5:22 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
GW20: 64(-4)=60 all out. OR 1.4M -->1.5M. Still meandering aimlessly in the mid 1M ranks. Would be nice to get some players that actually do points. We go again in 21.
January 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM
GW20: 64(-4)=60 all out. OR 1.4M -->1.5M. Still meandering aimlessly in the mid 1M ranks. Would be nice to get some players that actually do points. We go again in 21.
#SerieAFantasy GW19: 65(-5)=60, OR 173-->132. Not the best of weeks, but enough people were not paying attention to the schedule to get a decent green. We move
January 6, 2025 at 2:46 PM
#SerieAFantasy GW19: 65(-5)=60, OR 173-->132. Not the best of weeks, but enough people were not paying attention to the schedule to get a decent green. We move
Key reason is that there aren't that many appealing matchups in GW26. These are the best two.
(5/.
(5/.
January 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Key reason is that there aren't that many appealing matchups in GW26. These are the best two.
(5/.
(5/.
GW19: 87 all out, OR 1.7M --> 1.4M. Small steps, I guess. We move.
January 1, 2025 at 8:04 PM
GW19: 87 all out, OR 1.7M --> 1.4M. Small steps, I guess. We move.
#SerieAFantasy GW18: 69 all out, OR 185-->173. Kean benching hurts, but a green is a green. We move.
December 31, 2024 at 9:00 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW18: 69 all out, OR 185-->173. Kean benching hurts, but a green is a green. We move.
GW18: 54 all out, 1.5M-->1.7M. Digging ever deeper, contemplating a big hit to get rid of some of the garbage polluting my team
December 27, 2024 at 10:39 PM
GW18: 54 all out, 1.5M-->1.7M. Digging ever deeper, contemplating a big hit to get rid of some of the garbage polluting my team
Orange: expected points conditional on bonus >8, probability of bonus between 0.3 and 0.7
December 24, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Orange: expected points conditional on bonus >8, probability of bonus between 0.3 and 0.7
Light green: expected points conditional on bonus > 8, and probability of bonus >0.7 (Example: Crystal Palace v AVL in GW27)
December 24, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Light green: expected points conditional on bonus > 8, and probability of bonus >0.7 (Example: Crystal Palace v AVL in GW27)
Now with three color codes for targetable matches: dark green = strong favorites at home with Expected points conditional on no bonus > 8 (Example: Chelsea va SOU in GW27)
December 24, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Now with three color codes for targetable matches: dark green = strong favorites at home with Expected points conditional on no bonus > 8 (Example: Chelsea va SOU in GW27)
#SerieAFantasy GW17: 74 all out, OR 217-->185. Was hoping for more after the Rrahmani early goal, but still a green, and first time in top 200. We move.
December 24, 2024 at 6:08 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW17: 74 all out, OR 217-->185. Was hoping for more after the Rrahmani early goal, but still a green, and first time in top 200. We move.
GW17: 72 all out, 1.47M --> 1.54M. Salah and Solanke transform what would have been an anti-FPL Hall-of-Fame-worthy gameweek into just a regular boring red arrow. We go again in 18.
December 23, 2024 at 10:24 PM
GW17: 72 all out, 1.47M --> 1.54M. Salah and Solanke transform what would have been an anti-FPL Hall-of-Fame-worthy gameweek into just a regular boring red arrow. We go again in 18.
#SerieAFantasy GW16: 76 all out, OR 341-->217. A strong week, despite captain fail. We move.
December 17, 2024 at 1:05 AM
#SerieAFantasy GW16: 76 all out, OR 341-->217. A strong week, despite captain fail. We move.