Michael Flynn
@flynnpolsci.bsky.social
Troop deployments. Security cooperation. New Yorker in the Midwest. Semi-competent Bayesian stats enthusiast. Slowly becoming less bad at jiu jitsu. Impatient woodworker.
#polisky #rstats #dataviz
#polisky #rstats #dataviz
All of the emphasis on the second strike, but I don’t think we’ve seen any public disclosures as to what intelligence has been used as the basis for *any* of these strikes, or why extrajudicial killings of civilians are an acceptable measure even if the allegations of drug smuggling are true.
December 4, 2025 at 8:40 PM
All of the emphasis on the second strike, but I don’t think we’ve seen any public disclosures as to what intelligence has been used as the basis for *any* of these strikes, or why extrajudicial killings of civilians are an acceptable measure even if the allegations of drug smuggling are true.
Cat decided to climb into the Christmas tree.
November 30, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Cat decided to climb into the Christmas tree.
#RStats question: I'm working with a shape file that includes some strange "buffer" geometry around the core polygons of interest. For example, the cloudy dark gray edges that extend beyond the white lines on the left side. Is there a simple way to remove this kind of excess material?
November 26, 2025 at 6:18 PM
#RStats question: I'm working with a shape file that includes some strange "buffer" geometry around the core polygons of interest. For example, the cloudy dark gray edges that extend beyond the white lines on the left side. Is there a simple way to remove this kind of excess material?
This perfectly summarizes my refusal to integrate “intelligent” uses of AI in a class like, say, US foreign policy. To use it in even a remotely intelligent way they need the underlying knowledge and understanding to evaluate the AI content. That knowledge is a process thing, not an outcome thing.
November 24, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This perfectly summarizes my refusal to integrate “intelligent” uses of AI in a class like, say, US foreign policy. To use it in even a remotely intelligent way they need the underlying knowledge and understanding to evaluate the AI content. That knowledge is a process thing, not an outcome thing.
The big readings for the semester are over so now Carlos and I can get in to the really interesting stuff—the political and economic history of sugar.
November 23, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The big readings for the semester are over so now Carlos and I can get in to the really interesting stuff—the political and economic history of sugar.
Another favorite:
November 17, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Another favorite:
It's time to talk about the allocation of the US sugar import quota in class.
November 17, 2025 at 5:20 PM
It's time to talk about the allocation of the US sugar import quota in class.
The golden age of research.
October 30, 2025 at 4:59 PM
The golden age of research.
It's finance "journalism" so par for the course, but this is absolutely terrible advice and it's amazing how common it is. Part of the point of index funds that target nominally broad indices like the S&P is to shield you from the misfortunes that might hit a particular company or sector.
October 29, 2025 at 4:17 PM
It's finance "journalism" so par for the course, but this is absolutely terrible advice and it's amazing how common it is. Part of the point of index funds that target nominally broad indices like the S&P is to shield you from the misfortunes that might hit a particular company or sector.
Woof. Coffee futures are up there.
October 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Woof. Coffee futures are up there.
Seems like this was indeed the case.
October 11, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Seems like this was indeed the case.
I often think about the institutional incentives that brought us this.
September 30, 2025 at 2:41 PM
I often think about the institutional incentives that brought us this.
This seems fine. Nothing could go wrong.
September 28, 2025 at 9:16 PM
This seems fine. Nothing could go wrong.
Professional musician belatedly mad at self for being dumb and not actually reading other professional musician’s iconic lyrics but decides to blame other musician anyway. More at 11.
August 24, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Professional musician belatedly mad at self for being dumb and not actually reading other professional musician’s iconic lyrics but decides to blame other musician anyway. More at 11.
I finally updated my figures to include more recent US Army campaign durations since 1995.
August 22, 2025 at 6:56 PM
I finally updated my figures to include more recent US Army campaign durations since 1995.
Nothing says appreciation and relaxing like my employer trying to get me to pay them slightly less money than I might otherwise have to spend to go bowling.
July 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Nothing says appreciation and relaxing like my employer trying to get me to pay them slightly less money than I might otherwise have to spend to go bowling.
It’s funny this is a shock. I expect part of it is an issue with the age of the typical democratic elected official/leadership, but I struggle to think of many visible Democrats who offer a positive defense of their own policy positions and values. But Rogan is also 57 now! So it’s not all on age.
July 28, 2025 at 11:34 AM
It’s funny this is a shock. I expect part of it is an issue with the age of the typical democratic elected official/leadership, but I struggle to think of many visible Democrats who offer a positive defense of their own policy positions and values. But Rogan is also 57 now! So it’s not all on age.
Home town supercrimes.
July 27, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Home town supercrimes.
I finally finished a French drain I’ve been working on for several weeks (there was a vacation in the middle). Probably saved several thousand dollars. That feels good even if my body does not.
July 20, 2025 at 5:01 PM
I finally finished a French drain I’ve been working on for several weeks (there was a vacation in the middle). Probably saved several thousand dollars. That feels good even if my body does not.
OMB and the Department of Education have decided to not release funds that support before and after school programs like Boys and Girls Club, leading these organizations to make drastic cuts in their enrollment for this year. We, and many many other families in our area, rely on these organizations.
July 7, 2025 at 8:25 PM
OMB and the Department of Education have decided to not release funds that support before and after school programs like Boys and Girls Club, leading these organizations to make drastic cuts in their enrollment for this year. We, and many many other families in our area, rely on these organizations.
CRS has a really good overview of US uses of force and the authorities presidents have cited from 2001 through 2017. They all tend to lean on a mixture, but it’s not unusual to cite inherent constitutional powers alone or alongside the AUMFs.
June 22, 2025 at 4:54 AM
CRS has a really good overview of US uses of force and the authorities presidents have cited from 2001 through 2017. They all tend to lean on a mixture, but it’s not unusual to cite inherent constitutional powers alone or alongside the AUMFs.
The 2003 Iraq war was preceded by a months-long effort to build legitimacy against a backdrop of already declining support and what bump in public opinion it did bring diminished quickly and continued to decline further. Trump is starting from significantly worse position re public opinion. 1/
June 22, 2025 at 2:08 AM
The 2003 Iraq war was preceded by a months-long effort to build legitimacy against a backdrop of already declining support and what bump in public opinion it did bring diminished quickly and continued to decline further. Trump is starting from significantly worse position re public opinion. 1/
I think about this figure a lot.
June 22, 2025 at 12:56 AM
I think about this figure a lot.