Michael Flynn
@flynnpolsci.bsky.social
Troop deployments. Security cooperation. New Yorker in the Midwest. Semi-competent Bayesian stats enthusiast. Slowly becoming less bad at jiu jitsu. Impatient woodworker.
#polisky #rstats #dataviz
#polisky #rstats #dataviz
Do other people frequently go back and do basic modeling math by hand to make sure they still actually remember what's going on?
December 3, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Do other people frequently go back and do basic modeling math by hand to make sure they still actually remember what's going on?
Recent comments from Trump, Leavitt, and Hegseth all certainly seem like the things you’d say if you are nervous about accountability and are trying to line someone else up to take the hit.
If Admiral Bradley didn’t realize before that these cowards were setting him up to take the fall, he knows it now. Time to hire a good lawyer.
December 2, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Recent comments from Trump, Leavitt, and Hegseth all certainly seem like the things you’d say if you are nervous about accountability and are trying to line someone else up to take the hit.
Reposted by Michael Flynn
New publication! Here's a chapter in the newly released *Handbook of Political Control* by me and @sch-ir.bsky.social exploring how aid agencies, foundations, and individual donors respond to civil society repression
Preprint PDF: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Official version: doi.org/10.1515/9783...
Preprint PDF: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Official version: doi.org/10.1515/9783...
December 2, 2025 at 1:42 AM
New publication! Here's a chapter in the newly released *Handbook of Political Control* by me and @sch-ir.bsky.social exploring how aid agencies, foundations, and individual donors respond to civil society repression
Preprint PDF: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Official version: doi.org/10.1515/9783...
Preprint PDF: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Official version: doi.org/10.1515/9783...
I wish they sold gravy in cartons or jugs like milk and juice.
December 1, 2025 at 5:56 PM
I wish they sold gravy in cartons or jugs like milk and juice.
Cat decided to climb into the Christmas tree.
November 30, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Cat decided to climb into the Christmas tree.
To clarify, I'm working with an sf shape object.
#RStats question: I'm working with a shape file that includes some strange "buffer" geometry around the core polygons of interest. For example, the cloudy dark gray edges that extend beyond the white lines on the left side. Is there a simple way to remove this kind of excess material?
November 26, 2025 at 6:21 PM
To clarify, I'm working with an sf shape object.
#RStats question: I'm working with a shape file that includes some strange "buffer" geometry around the core polygons of interest. For example, the cloudy dark gray edges that extend beyond the white lines on the left side. Is there a simple way to remove this kind of excess material?
November 26, 2025 at 6:18 PM
#RStats question: I'm working with a shape file that includes some strange "buffer" geometry around the core polygons of interest. For example, the cloudy dark gray edges that extend beyond the white lines on the left side. Is there a simple way to remove this kind of excess material?
This perfectly summarizes my refusal to integrate “intelligent” uses of AI in a class like, say, US foreign policy. To use it in even a remotely intelligent way they need the underlying knowledge and understanding to evaluate the AI content. That knowledge is a process thing, not an outcome thing.
November 24, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This perfectly summarizes my refusal to integrate “intelligent” uses of AI in a class like, say, US foreign policy. To use it in even a remotely intelligent way they need the underlying knowledge and understanding to evaluate the AI content. That knowledge is a process thing, not an outcome thing.
Did underpants gnomes write this?
Cracks me up how you could just replace Venezuela and Venezuelans with Iraq and Iraqis and it’d be indistinguishable from something written in 2002
November 23, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Did underpants gnomes write this?
The big readings for the semester are over so now Carlos and I can get in to the really interesting stuff—the political and economic history of sugar.
November 23, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The big readings for the semester are over so now Carlos and I can get in to the really interesting stuff—the political and economic history of sugar.
Our washer broke so we went out to the laundromat up the street. We probably paid $1.50 per load in college and grad school. Keeping up with inflation that would be about $2.63 per load today. We’re paying $4.00 per load—more than 50% above the inflation-adjusted rate.
November 22, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Our washer broke so we went out to the laundromat up the street. We probably paid $1.50 per load in college and grad school. Keeping up with inflation that would be about $2.63 per load today. We’re paying $4.00 per load—more than 50% above the inflation-adjusted rate.
Heard students saying I was the only class that wasn’t cancelled today, the last day before Thanksgiving break, and that feels darn good.
November 21, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Heard students saying I was the only class that wasn’t cancelled today, the last day before Thanksgiving break, and that feels darn good.
Universities absolutely have a social advocacy mission—Especially land grant institutions. If you believe education should be accessible to everyone, and that evidence based research and scientific progress better the human condition and our country/world, then you definitely have a social mission.
No, we didn't "lose our mission" & we didn't focus too much on identity diversity at the expense of viewpoint diversity, & no one knows the right amount of that (bsky.app/profile/mcop...) & no amount of granting the premises warrants the lawless authoritarian assault on American universities.
November 18, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Universities absolutely have a social advocacy mission—Especially land grant institutions. If you believe education should be accessible to everyone, and that evidence based research and scientific progress better the human condition and our country/world, then you definitely have a social mission.
I have a degree in installing rjava
November 17, 2025 at 11:12 PM
I have a degree in installing rjava
Another favorite:
November 17, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Another favorite:
It's time to talk about the allocation of the US sugar import quota in class.
November 17, 2025 at 5:20 PM
It's time to talk about the allocation of the US sugar import quota in class.
Hardly the most important thing here, but I can’t get over how uniformly bad these people are at writing. There’s barely a coherent thought expressed in anything I’ve read so far. These emails are just full of incomplete thoughts and sentence fragments. It’s bordering on wild word salad.
Republican legal icon and Clinton scourge Ken Starr signs off a touching note to Jeffrey Epstein with "hugs." Amazing.
November 13, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Hardly the most important thing here, but I can’t get over how uniformly bad these people are at writing. There’s barely a coherent thought expressed in anything I’ve read so far. These emails are just full of incomplete thoughts and sentence fragments. It’s bordering on wild word salad.
This is the banner story on multiple major domestic and international news outlets, except Fox. That still boggles the mind.
House Democrats on Wednesday released emails in which Jeffrey Epstein wrote that Donald Trump had “spent hours at my house” with one of the convicted sex offender’s victims, among other messages that suggested Epstein believed Trump knew more about his abuse than he has acknowledged. nyti.ms/441Dyxh
November 12, 2025 at 3:37 PM
This is the banner story on multiple major domestic and international news outlets, except Fox. That still boggles the mind.
The new Frankenstein is quite good.
November 11, 2025 at 1:49 AM
The new Frankenstein is quite good.
It’s a testament to how inept Democratic leaders are if, given the embarrassment of riches they have to run on, they simply can’t imagine anything other than healthcare as appealing to voters.
November 10, 2025 at 11:31 PM
It’s a testament to how inept Democratic leaders are if, given the embarrassment of riches they have to run on, they simply can’t imagine anything other than healthcare as appealing to voters.
Watching the various Senate Dems giving their public statements and it’s just amazing how condescending they are to their own voters. There might be good reasons to say they needed to rethink their strategy but good lord do they ever ooze a misplaced sense of self righteousness.
November 10, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Watching the various Senate Dems giving their public statements and it’s just amazing how condescending they are to their own voters. There might be good reasons to say they needed to rethink their strategy but good lord do they ever ooze a misplaced sense of self righteousness.
This is substantively terrible for millions of people who will see healthcare costs skyrocket, and depending on how it works out just makes the Democratic caucus look incompetent. It’s simultaneously possible that Republicans will get all the blame for the shutdown AND the healthcare costs going up.
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This is substantively terrible for millions of people who will see healthcare costs skyrocket, and depending on how it works out just makes the Democratic caucus look incompetent. It’s simultaneously possible that Republicans will get all the blame for the shutdown AND the healthcare costs going up.
If we haven’t already, it’s only a matter of time until we see some sort of “Buy Human” movement akin to “Buy American” where firms are rewarded/shamed for their refusal to use, or embrace of, AI.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/11/...
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/11/...
AI-washing and the massive layoffs hitting the economy
Amazon, Target and UPS are laying off thousands of employees, but the reasons behind the cuts go a lot deeper than AI.
www.cnbc.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:37 PM
If we haven’t already, it’s only a matter of time until we see some sort of “Buy Human” movement akin to “Buy American” where firms are rewarded/shamed for their refusal to use, or embrace of, AI.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/11/...
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/11/...
Bayes’ Rule to the rescue when your cat pops hot for feline leukemia.
November 6, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Bayes’ Rule to the rescue when your cat pops hot for feline leukemia.
Adults shouldn’t talk about politics around kids because kids don’t understand what’s going on, argues adult person who doesn’t understand why the $130 million “donation” isn’t enough to pay the troops.
November 6, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Adults shouldn’t talk about politics around kids because kids don’t understand what’s going on, argues adult person who doesn’t understand why the $130 million “donation” isn’t enough to pay the troops.