Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.social
Ireland's budgetary watchdog
7/9 The Government is budgeting like there’s no tomorrow. There are no budgetary forecasts beyond 2026. The Government is also yet to submit a revised medium term fiscal plan to the European Commission.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
7/9 The Government is budgeting like there’s no tomorrow. There are no budgetary forecasts beyond 2026. The Government is also yet to submit a revised medium term fiscal plan to the European Commission.
6/9 Spending (net of tax measures) is still rising at a fast pace. Budget day forecasts suggest a slowdown in spending growth next year. Given the pattern of spending overruns in recent years, government expenditure may grow faster than Budget 2026 figures suggest.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
6/9 Spending (net of tax measures) is still rising at a fast pace. Budget day forecasts suggest a slowdown in spending growth next year. Given the pattern of spending overruns in recent years, government expenditure may grow faster than Budget 2026 figures suggest.
5/9 Against this backdrop, budgetary policy continues to add money into the economy when it is not needed. The government plans to spend most of its corporation tax receipts. Only 15% of total corporation tax receipts will be saved next year, down from 32% this year.
November 26, 2025 at 9:12 AM
5/9 Against this backdrop, budgetary policy continues to add money into the economy when it is not needed. The government plans to spend most of its corporation tax receipts. Only 15% of total corporation tax receipts will be saved next year, down from 32% this year.
4/9 Ireland is going to face large budgetary challenges in the decades ahead. Costs from an ageing population and climate change are equivalent to €20 billion in today’s money.
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
4/9 Ireland is going to face large budgetary challenges in the decades ahead. Costs from an ageing population and climate change are equivalent to €20 billion in today’s money.
3/9 On a headline level, the public finances are in a good position. However, surpluses are driven by extraordinary corporation tax receipts.
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
3/9 On a headline level, the public finances are in a good position. However, surpluses are driven by extraordinary corporation tax receipts.
2/9 Firstly, the economy continues to perform well. Employment has reached record highs and continues to grow. The Irish economy does not require support from budgetary policy.
November 26, 2025 at 9:10 AM
2/9 Firstly, the economy continues to perform well. Employment has reached record highs and continues to grow. The Irish economy does not require support from budgetary policy.
1/9 The Fiscal Council's latest report looks at the prospects for the Irish economy and public finances. It points to an increased reliance on corporation tax, future budgetary pressures and a lack of long-term planning.
November 26, 2025 at 9:09 AM
1/9 The Fiscal Council's latest report looks at the prospects for the Irish economy and public finances. It points to an increased reliance on corporation tax, future budgetary pressures and a lack of long-term planning.
2/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues could be even higher than they might otherwise have been in the short term. This is because one large pharma group frontloaded some exports to the US ahead of the expected tariffs.
November 12, 2025 at 9:25 AM
2/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues could be even higher than they might otherwise have been in the short term. This is because one large pharma group frontloaded some exports to the US ahead of the expected tariffs.
1/7 The Council has released new research on how Ireland’s corporation tax receipts could be impacted by US tariffs and policy changes. The pharma and tech sectors have avoided US tariffs to date. These sectors are the largest payers of corporation tax in Ireland.
November 12, 2025 at 9:24 AM
1/7 The Council has released new research on how Ireland’s corporation tax receipts could be impacted by US tariffs and policy changes. The pharma and tech sectors have avoided US tariffs to date. These sectors are the largest payers of corporation tax in Ireland.
4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace in 2025. Growth in current spending so far this year is 6%, ahead of the 3.3% assumed in Budget 2026. Most areas of spending are growing quickly, but spending in Education, Children and Justice is growing particularly fast.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace in 2025. Growth in current spending so far this year is 6%, ahead of the 3.3% assumed in Budget 2026. Most areas of spending are growing quickly, but spending in Education, Children and Justice is growing particularly fast.
3/4 Corporation tax continues to be volatile. Monthly receipts for October are up €0.7 billion on last year. For the year-to-date, corporation tax, excluding CJEU receipts, are up €1.1 billion, or 6.3%. Continued strength is expected for corporation tax in the near term.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
3/4 Corporation tax continues to be volatile. Monthly receipts for October are up €0.7 billion on last year. For the year-to-date, corporation tax, excluding CJEU receipts, are up €1.1 billion, or 6.3%. Continued strength is expected for corporation tax in the near term.
2/4 Underlying revenue in 2025 has grown faster than forecast in Budget 2025. This faster growth is seen across the key tax headings, with the exception of VAT, which is below forecast.
November 5, 2025 at 6:03 PM
2/4 Underlying revenue in 2025 has grown faster than forecast in Budget 2025. This faster growth is seen across the key tax headings, with the exception of VAT, which is below forecast.
1/4 Today’s fiscal monitor shows a continuation of recent trends. Spending growth is outpacing the growth in revenue. This is leading to a deterioration in the headline and underlying balance.
November 5, 2025 at 6:02 PM
1/4 Today’s fiscal monitor shows a continuation of recent trends. Spending growth is outpacing the growth in revenue. This is leading to a deterioration in the headline and underlying balance.
3/4 These changes will likely have significant implications for the public finances. An ageing population and climate change will both put upward pressure on spending. Revenue growth is likely to be slower as economic growth moderates and the population ages.
November 5, 2025 at 2:54 PM
3/4 These changes will likely have significant implications for the public finances. An ageing population and climate change will both put upward pressure on spending. Revenue growth is likely to be slower as economic growth moderates and the population ages.
2/4 There are some key positive developments that are likely over the medium term. These include a growing population and increased life expectancy. In contrast, productivity growth is likely to slow down.
November 5, 2025 at 2:54 PM
2/4 There are some key positive developments that are likely over the medium term. These include a growing population and increased life expectancy. In contrast, productivity growth is likely to slow down.
5/7 This alternative method of classifying subsidiaries paints a very different picture. We estimate that the tech and manufacturing sectors accounted for, on average, 87% of the corporation tax paid by large US-owned multinationals in Ireland between 2016 and 2023.
October 15, 2025 at 9:16 AM
5/7 This alternative method of classifying subsidiaries paints a very different picture. We estimate that the tech and manufacturing sectors accounted for, on average, 87% of the corporation tax paid by large US-owned multinationals in Ireland between 2016 and 2023.
4/7 The US publishes data on the corporation tax paid by large US-owned multinationals in Ireland. Importantly, this US data groups each firm based on the main activity of the group parent. US-owned firms make up about three-quarters of Irish corporation tax revenues.
October 15, 2025 at 9:15 AM
4/7 The US publishes data on the corporation tax paid by large US-owned multinationals in Ireland. Importantly, this US data groups each firm based on the main activity of the group parent. US-owned firms make up about three-quarters of Irish corporation tax revenues.
2/7 Since 2012, official data shows that about 70% of Ireland’s corporation tax revenues have come from just three sectors: manufacturing, tech, and financial and insurance. However, this likely understates the amount of corporation tax paid by the manufacturing and tech sectors.
October 15, 2025 at 9:15 AM
2/7 Since 2012, official data shows that about 70% of Ireland’s corporation tax revenues have come from just three sectors: manufacturing, tech, and financial and insurance. However, this likely understates the amount of corporation tax paid by the manufacturing and tech sectors.
15/16 Even after accounting for inflation, spending net of tax changes is growing at a rapid pace, over 9% in 2025 5.3% in 2026. This is much faster than the sustainable growth rate of the Irish economy.
October 7, 2025 at 5:58 PM
15/16 Even after accounting for inflation, spending net of tax changes is growing at a rapid pace, over 9% in 2025 5.3% in 2026. This is much faster than the sustainable growth rate of the Irish economy.
14/16 Our first read is that this means that nominal spending net of tax measures is set to grow by more than 11% in 2025 and 7.3% for 2026.
October 7, 2025 at 5:58 PM
14/16 Our first read is that this means that nominal spending net of tax measures is set to grow by more than 11% in 2025 and 7.3% for 2026.
10/16 Budget 2024 set out a base of €96.6 billion of Gross Voted Expenditure for 2024. As things stand, Gross Voted spending in 2025 is set to be €109 billion. This is an increase in spending in 2025 of €12.5 billion (12.9%) relative to what was originally set out for 2024.
October 7, 2025 at 5:57 PM
10/16 Budget 2024 set out a base of €96.6 billion of Gross Voted Expenditure for 2024. As things stand, Gross Voted spending in 2025 is set to be €109 billion. This is an increase in spending in 2025 of €12.5 billion (12.9%) relative to what was originally set out for 2024.
9/16 While much of the focus today is on the budget day package, there is no guarantee that spending will evolve as outlined today. Spending increases this year are likely to be more than double what was announced in the budget last October.
October 7, 2025 at 5:56 PM
9/16 While much of the focus today is on the budget day package, there is no guarantee that spending will evolve as outlined today. Spending increases this year are likely to be more than double what was announced in the budget last October.
8/16 The package announced by the Government this afternoon amounts to at least €7.4 billion (adjusted for tax measures). This is larger than the package of permanent measures introduced in recent budgets.
October 7, 2025 at 5:56 PM
8/16 The package announced by the Government this afternoon amounts to at least €7.4 billion (adjusted for tax measures). This is larger than the package of permanent measures introduced in recent budgets.
7/16 The Budget outlined €6.1 billion for current spending increases, €2 billion for capital spending increases, and €1.3 billion of tax changes. Unlike recent budgets, all of the measures announced are permanent, and will recur every year.
October 7, 2025 at 5:54 PM
7/16 The Budget outlined €6.1 billion for current spending increases, €2 billion for capital spending increases, and €1.3 billion of tax changes. Unlike recent budgets, all of the measures announced are permanent, and will recur every year.
6/16 While the Government is running a surplus, this is driven by the extraordinary amount of corporation tax that is being collected. Without these revenues, the Government’s own figures show a deficit of almost €14 billion could emerge next year, a deterioration of €6.2 billion.
October 7, 2025 at 5:54 PM
6/16 While the Government is running a surplus, this is driven by the extraordinary amount of corporation tax that is being collected. Without these revenues, the Government’s own figures show a deficit of almost €14 billion could emerge next year, a deterioration of €6.2 billion.