Slender Slim
@financeslim.bsky.social
I help you invest with timely data and insights. Former Trader/Banker on Wall St. in New York/Hong Kong. Current venture investor.
https://linktr.ee/slenderslim
https://linktr.ee/slenderslim
FOMC:
"Several" see Dec cut as appropriate.
"Many" see pausing as appropriate.
"Most" worry further cuts risk higher inflation / imply lack of policy commitment, but say further cuts "over time" are likely appropriate.
Sounds like pausing, yet markets pricing in an >80% chance of a Dec cut #Bearish
"Several" see Dec cut as appropriate.
"Many" see pausing as appropriate.
"Most" worry further cuts risk higher inflation / imply lack of policy commitment, but say further cuts "over time" are likely appropriate.
Sounds like pausing, yet markets pricing in an >80% chance of a Dec cut #Bearish
November 24, 2025 at 8:28 PM
FOMC:
"Several" see Dec cut as appropriate.
"Many" see pausing as appropriate.
"Most" worry further cuts risk higher inflation / imply lack of policy commitment, but say further cuts "over time" are likely appropriate.
Sounds like pausing, yet markets pricing in an >80% chance of a Dec cut #Bearish
"Several" see Dec cut as appropriate.
"Many" see pausing as appropriate.
"Most" worry further cuts risk higher inflation / imply lack of policy commitment, but say further cuts "over time" are likely appropriate.
Sounds like pausing, yet markets pricing in an >80% chance of a Dec cut #Bearish
Everyone is talking about Gold rising because of USD weakness, but what's not being talked about is a China's relatively weak economy (citizens want somewhere to put their money) and central bank reserve reallocations buying up gold.
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Everyone is talking about Gold rising because of USD weakness, but what's not being talked about is a China's relatively weak economy (citizens want somewhere to put their money) and central bank reserve reallocations buying up gold.
There's lots of alpha to be found in small caps. Market of stocks, not a single stock market.
October 20, 2025 at 12:36 PM
There's lots of alpha to be found in small caps. Market of stocks, not a single stock market.
US government job growth YoY is now higher than the private sector. Largely due to base effects, however.
October 8, 2025 at 12:47 PM
US government job growth YoY is now higher than the private sector. Largely due to base effects, however.
2nd wave of inflation appears to be coming, while GDP running at close to 3%.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
October 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
2nd wave of inflation appears to be coming, while GDP running at close to 3%.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
This graph always skews up, especially the Shiller index, as it is current price over earnings from prior quarters. Price reflects the earnings in the future and when they eventually release the ratio in prior data points are adjusted down.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
September 30, 2025 at 12:56 PM
This graph always skews up, especially the Shiller index, as it is current price over earnings from prior quarters. Price reflects the earnings in the future and when they eventually release the ratio in prior data points are adjusted down.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Market pricing in most dovish scenario. If Powell says anything that communicates hesitancy towards further three cuts or dot plot shows anything different, market will react harshely. Also already at ATHs.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Market pricing in most dovish scenario. If Powell says anything that communicates hesitancy towards further three cuts or dot plot shows anything different, market will react harshely. Also already at ATHs.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
US IG bonds are yielding more than the S&P (even on a forward earnings basis).
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
August 28, 2025 at 2:16 PM
US IG bonds are yielding more than the S&P (even on a forward earnings basis).
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Chinese stocks are rallying HARD.
August 27, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Chinese stocks are rallying HARD.
The 13% vs the 50%.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
August 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The 13% vs the 50%.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
This is a SHOCKING amount of corporate business applications in such a short amount of time.
August 26, 2025 at 2:04 AM
This is a SHOCKING amount of corporate business applications in such a short amount of time.
I used to work on Wall St and write about finance. Ex:
Foreign ownership of US equity markets has been continually increasing over time
Foreign ownership of US equity markets has been continually increasing over time
July 6, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I used to work on Wall St and write about finance. Ex:
Foreign ownership of US equity markets has been continually increasing over time
Foreign ownership of US equity markets has been continually increasing over time
I write about finance, follow if you're interested.
Example:
Fed dot plot went up 25 bps in 2026 and 2027 compared to their prior projection
Example:
Fed dot plot went up 25 bps in 2026 and 2027 compared to their prior projection
July 6, 2025 at 3:46 PM
I write about finance, follow if you're interested.
Example:
Fed dot plot went up 25 bps in 2026 and 2027 compared to their prior projection
Example:
Fed dot plot went up 25 bps in 2026 and 2027 compared to their prior projection
Private equity and private credit have superior annual returns compared the the S&P 500.
S&P is more liquid, so typically returns will be less.
Private equity also uses leverage, which boosts returns.
S&P is more liquid, so typically returns will be less.
Private equity also uses leverage, which boosts returns.
July 6, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Private equity and private credit have superior annual returns compared the the S&P 500.
S&P is more liquid, so typically returns will be less.
Private equity also uses leverage, which boosts returns.
S&P is more liquid, so typically returns will be less.
Private equity also uses leverage, which boosts returns.
General economic indicators in a SINGLE DAY can include (like last Thursday):
July 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
General economic indicators in a SINGLE DAY can include (like last Thursday):
New home sales fell a WHOPPING 13.7% in May‼
July 6, 2025 at 3:05 PM
New home sales fell a WHOPPING 13.7% in May‼
Relocating production or services to the US is basically the last action that firms would plan to take in response to higher tariffs.
June 6, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Relocating production or services to the US is basically the last action that firms would plan to take in response to higher tariffs.
Q1 advance GDP reading is (0.3%), in line with expectations of (0.2%), but better than GS & Nomura expectations of (0.8%) decline
May 30, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Q1 advance GDP reading is (0.3%), in line with expectations of (0.2%), but better than GS & Nomura expectations of (0.8%) decline
The S&P 500 P/E of 21x ranks in the 90th percentile since 1990, according to GS.
multpl.com shows 28x but I believe the earnings data is only updated quarterly.
multpl.com shows 28x but I believe the earnings data is only updated quarterly.
May 15, 2025 at 12:34 PM
The S&P 500 P/E of 21x ranks in the 90th percentile since 1990, according to GS.
multpl.com shows 28x but I believe the earnings data is only updated quarterly.
multpl.com shows 28x but I believe the earnings data is only updated quarterly.
Growth slowing, inflation rising, & rates higher for longer.
Stagflation hurts small businesses most, but a global trade war affects Mag7 more than the avg S&P 500 company as larger share of their rev (50%) comes from abroad, & trade makes up a larger % of GDP of foreign countries compared to USA.
Stagflation hurts small businesses most, but a global trade war affects Mag7 more than the avg S&P 500 company as larger share of their rev (50%) comes from abroad, & trade makes up a larger % of GDP of foreign countries compared to USA.
May 3, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Growth slowing, inflation rising, & rates higher for longer.
Stagflation hurts small businesses most, but a global trade war affects Mag7 more than the avg S&P 500 company as larger share of their rev (50%) comes from abroad, & trade makes up a larger % of GDP of foreign countries compared to USA.
Stagflation hurts small businesses most, but a global trade war affects Mag7 more than the avg S&P 500 company as larger share of their rev (50%) comes from abroad, & trade makes up a larger % of GDP of foreign countries compared to USA.
Nomura now changes their forecast negative
April 29, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Nomura now changes their forecast negative
Charts of the day. Real/Nominal property prices in China.
April 27, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Charts of the day. Real/Nominal property prices in China.