Slender Slim
@financeslim.bsky.social
I help you invest with timely data and insights. Former Trader/Banker on Wall St. in New York/Hong Kong. Current venture investor.
https://linktr.ee/slenderslim
https://linktr.ee/slenderslim
Q3 GDP tracking 3.7%, per GS.
November 19, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Q3 GDP tracking 3.7%, per GS.
Nomura changes rate forecast to Fed holding steady in December.
November 10, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Nomura changes rate forecast to Fed holding steady in December.
Powell indicated b/s runoff will discontinue (~early next year most likely), which is bullish for markets.
November 3, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Powell indicated b/s runoff will discontinue (~early next year most likely), which is bullish for markets.
There is a divergence in market pricing and street consensus for rates. The street thinks rates will be higher for longer compared to cuts implied by the market.
October 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
There is a divergence in market pricing and street consensus for rates. The street thinks rates will be higher for longer compared to cuts implied by the market.
Everyone is talking about Gold rising because of USD weakness, but what's not being talked about is a China's relatively weak economy (citizens want somewhere to put their money) and central bank reserve reallocations buying up gold.
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Everyone is talking about Gold rising because of USD weakness, but what's not being talked about is a China's relatively weak economy (citizens want somewhere to put their money) and central bank reserve reallocations buying up gold.
There's lots of alpha to be found in small caps. Market of stocks, not a single stock market.
October 20, 2025 at 12:36 PM
There's lots of alpha to be found in small caps. Market of stocks, not a single stock market.
# of investors in USA that see ESG as a fiduciary responsibility has fallen over 30% from 2024 to 2025!
October 14, 2025 at 1:44 PM
# of investors in USA that see ESG as a fiduciary responsibility has fallen over 30% from 2024 to 2025!
People say the US has a chronic housing shortage but the housing vacancy rate is 10%, higher than some other western countries, such as France, Germany, UK ( 5% vacancy!!), & even CANADA! Canada is bigger than the US yet ~the same population as California.
October 9, 2025 at 12:31 PM
People say the US has a chronic housing shortage but the housing vacancy rate is 10%, higher than some other western countries, such as France, Germany, UK ( 5% vacancy!!), & even CANADA! Canada is bigger than the US yet ~the same population as California.
US government job growth YoY is now higher than the private sector. Largely due to base effects, however.
October 8, 2025 at 12:47 PM
US government job growth YoY is now higher than the private sector. Largely due to base effects, however.
2nd wave of inflation appears to be coming, while GDP running at close to 3%.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
October 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
2nd wave of inflation appears to be coming, while GDP running at close to 3%.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
Fed will have to change course and market will tank. Buy some downside insurance or reallocate more to bonds.
Apollo says economists were wrong, Trump was right.
Everyone's been expecting an economic slowdown from tariffs (& fear of), but 2Q real GDP was 3.8% (6% nominal), Atlanta Fed expects Q3 to be 3.9%.
Job losses have been to slowing immigration. These are strong growth numbers.
Everyone's been expecting an economic slowdown from tariffs (& fear of), but 2Q real GDP was 3.8% (6% nominal), Atlanta Fed expects Q3 to be 3.9%.
Job losses have been to slowing immigration. These are strong growth numbers.
October 1, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Apollo says economists were wrong, Trump was right.
Everyone's been expecting an economic slowdown from tariffs (& fear of), but 2Q real GDP was 3.8% (6% nominal), Atlanta Fed expects Q3 to be 3.9%.
Job losses have been to slowing immigration. These are strong growth numbers.
Everyone's been expecting an economic slowdown from tariffs (& fear of), but 2Q real GDP was 3.8% (6% nominal), Atlanta Fed expects Q3 to be 3.9%.
Job losses have been to slowing immigration. These are strong growth numbers.
This graph always skews up, especially the Shiller index, as it is current price over earnings from prior quarters. Price reflects the earnings in the future and when they eventually release the ratio in prior data points are adjusted down.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
September 30, 2025 at 12:56 PM
This graph always skews up, especially the Shiller index, as it is current price over earnings from prior quarters. Price reflects the earnings in the future and when they eventually release the ratio in prior data points are adjusted down.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Ex: Current P/E is off Q1 earnings.
Apollo thinks the USD deprecating this year was overdone and is recommending short EURUSD.
www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/u...
www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/u...
www.apolloacademy.com
September 24, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Apollo thinks the USD deprecating this year was overdone and is recommending short EURUSD.
www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/u...
www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/u...
Powell reiterates views on inflation above target and unemployment rising. Tough spot to be in.
#Stagflation
#Stagflation
September 23, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Powell reiterates views on inflation above target and unemployment rising. Tough spot to be in.
#Stagflation
#Stagflation
US government will likely shut down Oct 1
Shutdown means government data releases like CPI cease.
Less data between now and next FOMC meeting means they are more likely follow dot plot. So can be bullish in a sense.
Shutdown means government data releases like CPI cease.
Less data between now and next FOMC meeting means they are more likely follow dot plot. So can be bullish in a sense.
September 23, 2025 at 12:38 PM
US government will likely shut down Oct 1
Shutdown means government data releases like CPI cease.
Less data between now and next FOMC meeting means they are more likely follow dot plot. So can be bullish in a sense.
Shutdown means government data releases like CPI cease.
Less data between now and next FOMC meeting means they are more likely follow dot plot. So can be bullish in a sense.
Market pricing in most dovish scenario. If Powell says anything that communicates hesitancy towards further three cuts or dot plot shows anything different, market will react harshely. Also already at ATHs.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Market pricing in most dovish scenario. If Powell says anything that communicates hesitancy towards further three cuts or dot plot shows anything different, market will react harshely. Also already at ATHs.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
Buying a put is cheap insurance today.
Current business conditions survey -8.7 against consenus of 4.9. Stocks have been up premarket but may retract some of their gains.
September 15, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Current business conditions survey -8.7 against consenus of 4.9. Stocks have been up premarket but may retract some of their gains.
Over 70% of Wall St think the Indonesian demonstrations are over.
Buy IDRUSD pair.
Buy IDRUSD pair.
September 2, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Over 70% of Wall St think the Indonesian demonstrations are over.
Buy IDRUSD pair.
Buy IDRUSD pair.
Q2 GDP revised up 30bps.
Consumption, capex were revised up (+70bps for real private domestic final sales, +50bps real domestic final sales).
Housing, government spending, & inventories revised down.
Good areas revised up, irrelevant areas revised down. #Bullish
Consumption, capex were revised up (+70bps for real private domestic final sales, +50bps real domestic final sales).
Housing, government spending, & inventories revised down.
Good areas revised up, irrelevant areas revised down. #Bullish
August 28, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Q2 GDP revised up 30bps.
Consumption, capex were revised up (+70bps for real private domestic final sales, +50bps real domestic final sales).
Housing, government spending, & inventories revised down.
Good areas revised up, irrelevant areas revised down. #Bullish
Consumption, capex were revised up (+70bps for real private domestic final sales, +50bps real domestic final sales).
Housing, government spending, & inventories revised down.
Good areas revised up, irrelevant areas revised down. #Bullish
US IG bonds are yielding more than the S&P (even on a forward earnings basis).
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
August 28, 2025 at 2:16 PM
US IG bonds are yielding more than the S&P (even on a forward earnings basis).
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Why take equity risk when you can get a higher yield and be senior on the cap stack? Then also benefit from bond price appreciation when cuts do eventually happen.
Chinese stocks are rallying HARD.
August 27, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Chinese stocks are rallying HARD.
Majority of Wall Street thinks Trump will oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and it will make the DXY (U.S.-dollar index) weaker.
August 27, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Majority of Wall Street thinks Trump will oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and it will make the DXY (U.S.-dollar index) weaker.
The 13% vs the 50%.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
August 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The 13% vs the 50%.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
13% of HY bonds are over 500bps, roughly half are under 200bps, indicating massive divergence within the industry.
The 300bps average doesn't tell the full story.
FOMC internal divergence is associated with negative stock price performance, further reinforcing that now is a good time to invest in some downside insurance:
www.apolloacademy.com/the-impact-o...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-impact-o...
August 26, 2025 at 5:06 PM
FOMC internal divergence is associated with negative stock price performance, further reinforcing that now is a good time to invest in some downside insurance:
www.apolloacademy.com/the-impact-o...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-impact-o...