Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
Bloomberg Distinguished Professor (SAIS & Carey Business School), Johns Hopkins University. Political economy, Brazil, and a little bit of futebol.
Waiting for an economic disaster to bring comeuppance is magical thinking of the worst kind, bc the absence of a "disaster" will be seen as evidence that the critics were wrong.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Waiting for an economic disaster to bring comeuppance is magical thinking of the worst kind, bc the absence of a "disaster" will be seen as evidence that the critics were wrong.
I think about that a lot in the context of Trump: the tariffs, the corruption, the capriciousness -- all of that is much more like Brexit than like a financial crisis.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I think about that a lot in the context of Trump: the tariffs, the corruption, the capriciousness -- all of that is much more like Brexit than like a financial crisis.
1000%. We are terrible at dealing with counterfactuals, that's at the heart of the problem. Not to mention that we are great at getting used to stuff, especially when it happens relatively slowly.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
1000%. We are terrible at dealing with counterfactuals, that's at the heart of the problem. Not to mention that we are great at getting used to stuff, especially when it happens relatively slowly.
We could call that "Argentina", for shorthand...
November 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
We could call that "Argentina", for shorthand...
I don't know about that re: voters. We've seen with the GOP that a cult of personality is one possible outcome, but I think right now it's very uncertain as to what kind of outsider would emerge and succeed.
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I don't know about that re: voters. We've seen with the GOP that a cult of personality is one possible outcome, but I think right now it's very uncertain as to what kind of outsider would emerge and succeed.
Indeed. The bottom line is that the current state of the Democratic Party doesn't seem like a stable equilibrium.
November 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Indeed. The bottom line is that the current state of the Democratic Party doesn't seem like a stable equilibrium.
To be clear: I have no idea if this would be good or bad. Just an observation...
November 10, 2025 at 5:02 PM
To be clear: I have no idea if this would be good or bad. Just an observation...
The comprehensiveness of the disaster remains most impressive...
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The comprehensiveness of the disaster remains most impressive...
I mean, if you had asked those of us from Latin America, we could have told you that populist disasters most certainly do not imply that the populists get punished by voters...
November 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I mean, if you had asked those of us from Latin America, we could have told you that populist disasters most certainly do not imply that the populists get punished by voters...
As an individual judge, I am not sure he could accomplish more, especially given his age. If many judges start doing that, then we have a problem…
November 9, 2025 at 3:40 PM
As an individual judge, I am not sure he could accomplish more, especially given his age. If many judges start doing that, then we have a problem…
You need to mobilize resources to create the machines — why would you invest in creating robot plumbers when human plumbers are cheaply available?
November 7, 2025 at 11:21 PM
You need to mobilize resources to create the machines — why would you invest in creating robot plumbers when human plumbers are cheaply available?
I agree, so it’s all predicated on scarcity disappearing, but that seems like an unproven and kind of fantastical possibility, especially when it comes to the physical world.
November 7, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I agree, so it’s all predicated on scarcity disappearing, but that seems like an unproven and kind of fantastical possibility, especially when it comes to the physical world.
You could do PR with an open list, as in Brazil. Brazilian legislators do *a lot* of constituent services/pork, though huge accountability problems remain...
November 7, 2025 at 3:48 AM
You could do PR with an open list, as in Brazil. Brazilian legislators do *a lot* of constituent services/pork, though huge accountability problems remain...
on.ft.com/4qJXVc4 AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here
AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here
Tech leaders say systems now rival human intelligence in key tasks, further fuelling the superintelligence debate
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:16 PM
on.ft.com/4qJXVc4 AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here
In other words: the tech folks keep saying that machines will have an absolute advantage over humans in everything, but we know it’s comparative advantage that matters. And you literally can’t have a comparative advantage in everything!
November 6, 2025 at 10:15 PM
In other words: the tech folks keep saying that machines will have an absolute advantage over humans in everything, but we know it’s comparative advantage that matters. And you literally can’t have a comparative advantage in everything!
I really don't want to get too excited... www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Donald Trump enters his lame duck era
Republicans are starting to contend with the fact that the president will soon be gone, and they'll be fending for themselves.
www.politico.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:35 PM
I really don't want to get too excited... www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Exactly. I started reading that piece and immediately thought: this is an object lesson on the terribleness of autocracy.
November 6, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Exactly. I started reading that piece and immediately thought: this is an object lesson on the terribleness of autocracy.