Elias Ferrer
@ferrerbreda.bsky.social
Founder of @orinocoresearch.com. Lead editor at @theguacamayave.bsky.social. Looking at Venezuela's politics and economy. Did Development Studies at SOAS.
Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
September 27, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Nicolás Maduro is now meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. He'll be in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Official sources say there is an agenda for oil & gas, military, and space cooperation.
(And this is soon after Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing and Shanghai)
(And this is soon after Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing and Shanghai)
May 7, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Nicolás Maduro is now meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. He'll be in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Official sources say there is an agenda for oil & gas, military, and space cooperation.
(And this is soon after Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing and Shanghai)
(And this is soon after Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing and Shanghai)
Trump seems to be cancelling the Chevron license for Venezuela. It contrasts with the signals that Presidential Envoy Ric Grenell was sending out just last weekend.
Some say it's a trade to get the "Reconciliation Bill" passed.
Some say it's a trade to get the "Reconciliation Bill" passed.
February 27, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Trump seems to be cancelling the Chevron license for Venezuela. It contrasts with the signals that Presidential Envoy Ric Grenell was sending out just last weekend.
Some say it's a trade to get the "Reconciliation Bill" passed.
Some say it's a trade to get the "Reconciliation Bill" passed.
So basically the whole continent has moved on to buy Chinese except Venezuela?
I wonder how that breaks down. Is it stuff like petroleum used by local oil industry locally, or consumer goods?
I wonder how that breaks down. Is it stuff like petroleum used by local oil industry locally, or consumer goods?
February 19, 2025 at 2:41 AM
So basically the whole continent has moved on to buy Chinese except Venezuela?
I wonder how that breaks down. Is it stuff like petroleum used by local oil industry locally, or consumer goods?
I wonder how that breaks down. Is it stuff like petroleum used by local oil industry locally, or consumer goods?
Ordinary Venezuelans are making small gains and losses by playing around with the gap between the official and black market exchange rates.
Now imagine big guys doing it—buying dollars at the cheap rate and selling them at the expensive rate, often making upwards of 20%.
Now imagine big guys doing it—buying dollars at the cheap rate and selling them at the expensive rate, often making upwards of 20%.
February 18, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Ordinary Venezuelans are making small gains and losses by playing around with the gap between the official and black market exchange rates.
Now imagine big guys doing it—buying dollars at the cheap rate and selling them at the expensive rate, often making upwards of 20%.
Now imagine big guys doing it—buying dollars at the cheap rate and selling them at the expensive rate, often making upwards of 20%.
So USAID definitely did not pay Guaidó's Interim Government. But it did pay for everything they needed.
According to Josh Hodges, who some call a protégé of Mauricio Claver-Carone. He said this before the Senate in September 2020.
According to Josh Hodges, who some call a protégé of Mauricio Claver-Carone. He said this before the Senate in September 2020.
February 14, 2025 at 1:19 AM
So USAID definitely did not pay Guaidó's Interim Government. But it did pay for everything they needed.
According to Josh Hodges, who some call a protégé of Mauricio Claver-Carone. He said this before the Senate in September 2020.
According to Josh Hodges, who some call a protégé of Mauricio Claver-Carone. He said this before the Senate in September 2020.
Three points about PDVSA's January production:
- Final output would have risen to over 1 million barrels per day (direct reporting).
- PDVSA imported more light crudes to cover dwindling local production.
- Sargeant’s Global Oil boosted Venezuelan asphalt deliveries to the US.
- Final output would have risen to over 1 million barrels per day (direct reporting).
- PDVSA imported more light crudes to cover dwindling local production.
- Sargeant’s Global Oil boosted Venezuelan asphalt deliveries to the US.
February 13, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Three points about PDVSA's January production:
- Final output would have risen to over 1 million barrels per day (direct reporting).
- PDVSA imported more light crudes to cover dwindling local production.
- Sargeant’s Global Oil boosted Venezuelan asphalt deliveries to the US.
- Final output would have risen to over 1 million barrels per day (direct reporting).
- PDVSA imported more light crudes to cover dwindling local production.
- Sargeant’s Global Oil boosted Venezuelan asphalt deliveries to the US.
Very important polling numbers. About 18% of the Venezuelan population would still want to emigrate, but the US is no longer their main choice.
Source: Poder y Estrategia.
Source: Poder y Estrategia.
February 12, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Very important polling numbers. About 18% of the Venezuelan population would still want to emigrate, but the US is no longer their main choice.
Source: Poder y Estrategia.
Source: Poder y Estrategia.
Diosdado Cabello went to receive the first flight of Venezuelan deportees from El Paso, Texas.
From the official press pictures, it's like he wants to make it look like Ric Grenell's flight, where he was taking American prisoners in Venezuela home.
From the official press pictures, it's like he wants to make it look like Ric Grenell's flight, where he was taking American prisoners in Venezuela home.
February 11, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Diosdado Cabello went to receive the first flight of Venezuelan deportees from El Paso, Texas.
From the official press pictures, it's like he wants to make it look like Ric Grenell's flight, where he was taking American prisoners in Venezuela home.
From the official press pictures, it's like he wants to make it look like Ric Grenell's flight, where he was taking American prisoners in Venezuela home.
Trump says it’s done: U.S. citizens that were jailed in Venezuela are home, and Maduro will provide transportation to take back “illegal aliens” including Tren de Aragua gang members.
Is this a first step to start normalising relations?
Is this a first step to start normalising relations?
February 1, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Trump says it’s done: U.S. citizens that were jailed in Venezuela are home, and Maduro will provide transportation to take back “illegal aliens” including Tren de Aragua gang members.
Is this a first step to start normalising relations?
Is this a first step to start normalising relations?
Diosdado Cabello is on the Venezuelan side of the Catatumbo, just across from the Colombian region that is seeing the guerrilla conflict intensify.
Venezuela could be receiving thousands of refugees due to the clashes between the ELN and state forces.
Venezuela could be receiving thousands of refugees due to the clashes between the ELN and state forces.
January 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Diosdado Cabello is on the Venezuelan side of the Catatumbo, just across from the Colombian region that is seeing the guerrilla conflict intensify.
Venezuela could be receiving thousands of refugees due to the clashes between the ELN and state forces.
Venezuela could be receiving thousands of refugees due to the clashes between the ELN and state forces.
Often it’s not clear whether the U.S. needs Venezuelan oil or not.
The main fact is that the U.S. is a net importer of *crude* oil, especially heavier ones. Then, it is a net exporter of petroleum products as a whole, in part thanks to its many refineries.
The main fact is that the U.S. is a net importer of *crude* oil, especially heavier ones. Then, it is a net exporter of petroleum products as a whole, in part thanks to its many refineries.
January 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Often it’s not clear whether the U.S. needs Venezuelan oil or not.
The main fact is that the U.S. is a net importer of *crude* oil, especially heavier ones. Then, it is a net exporter of petroleum products as a whole, in part thanks to its many refineries.
The main fact is that the U.S. is a net importer of *crude* oil, especially heavier ones. Then, it is a net exporter of petroleum products as a whole, in part thanks to its many refineries.
Richard Grenell, presidential envoy for special missions, says he’s already started speaking to officials in Venezuela.
January 20, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Richard Grenell, presidential envoy for special missions, says he’s already started speaking to officials in Venezuela.
Now Rafael Ramirez (former oil minister under Chavez) also calls for removing the Chevron license, "from the left."
The Maduro government did not collapse during 4 years of tight sanctions on the oil sector (and 7 of financial sanctions).
The Maduro government did not collapse during 4 years of tight sanctions on the oil sector (and 7 of financial sanctions).
January 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Now Rafael Ramirez (former oil minister under Chavez) also calls for removing the Chevron license, "from the left."
The Maduro government did not collapse during 4 years of tight sanctions on the oil sector (and 7 of financial sanctions).
The Maduro government did not collapse during 4 years of tight sanctions on the oil sector (and 7 of financial sanctions).
Mi foto “periodística” de este 2024. En el centro de votación en la estación de metrocable de La Ceiba.
December 30, 2024 at 9:41 PM
Mi foto “periodística” de este 2024. En el centro de votación en la estación de metrocable de La Ceiba.
Diosdado Cabello says, "Anyone who tries to mess with Venezuela will pay a high price. They can come in if they want, the problem will be leaving this place."
I thought we wouldn't see much on Jan 10, but he's getting ready for something big.
I thought we wouldn't see much on Jan 10, but he's getting ready for something big.
December 30, 2024 at 9:43 AM
Diosdado Cabello says, "Anyone who tries to mess with Venezuela will pay a high price. They can come in if they want, the problem will be leaving this place."
I thought we wouldn't see much on Jan 10, but he's getting ready for something big.
I thought we wouldn't see much on Jan 10, but he's getting ready for something big.
On his podcast, Maduro said that investors have committed $52 billion for Venezuela over the next two years ("inversiones amarradas").
Who is lying to Maduro? How does this help his administration in any way?
Below, FDI flows in Venezuela, selected years. UNCTAD.
Who is lying to Maduro? How does this help his administration in any way?
Below, FDI flows in Venezuela, selected years. UNCTAD.
December 27, 2024 at 11:11 AM
On his podcast, Maduro said that investors have committed $52 billion for Venezuela over the next two years ("inversiones amarradas").
Who is lying to Maduro? How does this help his administration in any way?
Below, FDI flows in Venezuela, selected years. UNCTAD.
Who is lying to Maduro? How does this help his administration in any way?
Below, FDI flows in Venezuela, selected years. UNCTAD.
Time to literally beat the shit out of this piece of wood
December 25, 2024 at 12:06 PM
Time to literally beat the shit out of this piece of wood
Not looking bad for Maduro despite losing 2-1...
December 24, 2024 at 11:56 AM
Not looking bad for Maduro despite losing 2-1...
Brian Fonseca from FIU proposes an "America-first sanctions policy" for Venezuela: opening the way for the US private sector and enforcing "stringent secondary sanctions" on rivals.
gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/research/pol...
gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/research/pol...
December 10, 2024 at 11:46 PM
Brian Fonseca from FIU proposes an "America-first sanctions policy" for Venezuela: opening the way for the US private sector and enforcing "stringent secondary sanctions" on rivals.
gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/research/pol...
gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/research/pol...
I thought this was gonna be awkward but then you remember that at different points in history the US supported Saddam Hussein, Ruhollah Khomeini, and the Taliban. So yeah Al Qaeda were bad yesterday, good today, who cares.
December 8, 2024 at 12:06 PM
I thought this was gonna be awkward but then you remember that at different points in history the US supported Saddam Hussein, Ruhollah Khomeini, and the Taliban. So yeah Al Qaeda were bad yesterday, good today, who cares.
Still trying to push the same scorched earth strategy of "if I can't have this country, you won't have it either."
Where this guy can feel righteous and ordinary people endure even more hardship. While illicit trade flourishes and a handful enjoy being rich in a poor country.
Where this guy can feel righteous and ordinary people endure even more hardship. While illicit trade flourishes and a handful enjoy being rich in a poor country.
November 29, 2024 at 11:03 PM
Still trying to push the same scorched earth strategy of "if I can't have this country, you won't have it either."
Where this guy can feel righteous and ordinary people endure even more hardship. While illicit trade flourishes and a handful enjoy being rich in a poor country.
Where this guy can feel righteous and ordinary people endure even more hardship. While illicit trade flourishes and a handful enjoy being rich in a poor country.