Elias Ferrer
@ferrerbreda.bsky.social
Founder of @orinocoresearch.com. Lead editor at @theguacamayave.bsky.social. Looking at Venezuela's politics and economy. Did Development Studies at SOAS.
With my comments for The Guardian:
"One concern was the potential for a “Libya scenario”, recalling how the North African country slipped into civil war in the years after the 2011 killing of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
"One concern was the potential for a “Libya scenario”, recalling how the North African country slipped into civil war in the years after the 2011 killing of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Stakes rise as Trump deploys world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean
Expert says military action may be ‘imminent’ in Venezuela, while others suspect deployment is a negotiating tactic
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:10 PM
With my comments for The Guardian:
"One concern was the potential for a “Libya scenario”, recalling how the North African country slipped into civil war in the years after the 2011 killing of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
"One concern was the potential for a “Libya scenario”, recalling how the North African country slipped into civil war in the years after the 2011 killing of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Elias Ferrer
🇻🇪 At Guacamaya, we are sending out a weekly intelligence briefing, analyzing Venezuela's politics and economy.
🏢 Dozens of businesses, institutions, and individuals already trust us.
🦜 Get the Venezuela Business Briefing 👇
guacamayave.com/subscribe
🏢 Dozens of businesses, institutions, and individuals already trust us.
🦜 Get the Venezuela Business Briefing 👇
guacamayave.com/subscribe
Venezuela Business Briefing - Guacamaya
A strategic intelligence briefing with the week’s most important business, economic, and political developments. Brought to you by Guacamaya, every Monday morning. This weekly newsletter has a simple ...
guacamayave.com
November 8, 2025 at 12:41 PM
🇻🇪 At Guacamaya, we are sending out a weekly intelligence briefing, analyzing Venezuela's politics and economy.
🏢 Dozens of businesses, institutions, and individuals already trust us.
🦜 Get the Venezuela Business Briefing 👇
guacamayave.com/subscribe
🏢 Dozens of businesses, institutions, and individuals already trust us.
🦜 Get the Venezuela Business Briefing 👇
guacamayave.com/subscribe
🇻🇪 Venezuela is in the global spotlight again, with military escalations, sanctions changes, an opaque oil sector, and complex political and geopolitical considerations at play. What's really going on? What are the scenarios for the future?
Reach out at orinocoresearch.com/contact
Reach out at orinocoresearch.com/contact
Contact — Orinoco Research
orinocoresearch.com
October 10, 2025 at 4:34 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela is in the global spotlight again, with military escalations, sanctions changes, an opaque oil sector, and complex political and geopolitical considerations at play. What's really going on? What are the scenarios for the future?
Reach out at orinocoresearch.com/contact
Reach out at orinocoresearch.com/contact
Here, CBC explains that the US Navy deployment is really not about drug trafficking. And that instead, it might be about:
- Regime change to control Venezuela's resources.
- To combat China's influence (but backfiring).
- Consolidating Trump's power.
youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug
- Regime change to control Venezuela's resources.
- To combat China's influence (but backfiring).
- Consolidating Trump's power.
youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug
Why Trump is at war with Venezuela | About That
YouTube video by CBC News
youtu.be
October 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Here, CBC explains that the US Navy deployment is really not about drug trafficking. And that instead, it might be about:
- Regime change to control Venezuela's resources.
- To combat China's influence (but backfiring).
- Consolidating Trump's power.
youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug
- Regime change to control Venezuela's resources.
- To combat China's influence (but backfiring).
- Consolidating Trump's power.
youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug
With my comments for @oglobo.globo.com on how the Trump administration sees Venezuela, what a military operation could entail, and how Maduro is reacting.
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
Caminho incerto: Dividido entre ala dura e diplomática, Trump está indeciso sobre Venezuela
Analistas políticos venezuelanos avaliam que presidente americano ainda não decidiu o que fazer sobre o regime Maduro em Caracas
oglobo.globo.com
September 29, 2025 at 1:31 PM
With my comments for @oglobo.globo.com on how the Trump administration sees Venezuela, what a military operation could entail, and how Maduro is reacting.
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
September 27, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...
Should we expect war or negotiations between the United States and Venezuela? What will it mean for energy markets?
Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
Crude oil prices & gas price charts. Oil price charts for Brent Crude, WTI & oil futures. Energy news covering oil, petroleum, natural gas and investment advice
OilPrice.com
September 27, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Should we expect war or negotiations between the United States and Venezuela? What will it mean for energy markets?
Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear
My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...
My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...
www.intellinews.com
September 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear
My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...
My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...
With my comments for O Globo:
"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
Pressão máxima: Trump envia forças ao Caribe e manda afundar barcos para acuar Maduro, dizem analistas
Casa Branca enviou a Porto Rico caças multifuncionais de quinta geração que têm, entre outras capacidades, interferir e neutralizar sistemas de comunicação, carregar mísseis com alcance de até 200km e...
oglobo.globo.com
September 17, 2025 at 2:14 PM
With my comments for O Globo:
"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."
oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...
We were able to show that the Cartel de los Soles is a political narrative used to justify military intervention.
In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.
guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...
In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.
guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...
The myth of a Venezuelan narco-state: A geopolitical risk for the United States - Guacamaya
Creating and spreading a false narrative is not harmless. In this third article, we are laying out the damning consequences of branding Venezuela a narco-state.
guacamayave.com
September 15, 2025 at 3:17 PM
We were able to show that the Cartel de los Soles is a political narrative used to justify military intervention.
In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.
guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...
In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.
guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...
Reposted by Elias Ferrer
Another solid investigative article by @ferrerbreda.bsky.social regarding claims of a "Cartel de los Soles" directed by Nicolás Maduro
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya
Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.
guacamayave.com
September 8, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Another solid investigative article by @ferrerbreda.bsky.social regarding claims of a "Cartel de los Soles" directed by Nicolás Maduro
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
We aren't done. We just published a second investigation, where we show how the "Cartel de los Soles" political narrative was created with one goal: to push for regime change.
Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya
Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.
guacamayave.com
September 9, 2025 at 1:04 PM
We aren't done. We just published a second investigation, where we show how the "Cartel de los Soles" political narrative was created with one goal: to push for regime change.
Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
We just did an investigative report on what the Cartel of the Suns really is: a political narrative.
In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya
On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”
guacamayave.com
September 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
We just did an investigative report on what the Cartel of the Suns really is: a political narrative.
In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
Reposted by Elias Ferrer
This is the best deep-dive regarding the mythical "Cartel de los Soles" published by a Venezuelan investigative journlaist.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya
On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”
guacamayave.com
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
This is the best deep-dive regarding the mythical "Cartel de los Soles" published by a Venezuelan investigative journlaist.
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...
Sometimes we forget that sanctions are, to many effects, an act of war. Blockades aren't new, just the way we do them.
Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.
cepr.net/publications...
Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.
cepr.net/publications...
Effects of International Sanctions on Age-Specific Mortality: A Cross-National Panel Data Analysis
New study finds unilateral economic sanctions significantly increase mortality, causing over 560,000 deaths annually—comparable to war.
cepr.net
July 24, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Sometimes we forget that sanctions are, to many effects, an act of war. Blockades aren't new, just the way we do them.
Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.
cepr.net/publications...
Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.
cepr.net/publications...
The point is that Chinese companies don't have to invest billions in Venezuela. They already control its export markets for oil and most minerals, thanks to U.S. sanctions. You don't buy something that you already own.
My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com
While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...
oilprice.com
June 16, 2025 at 1:29 PM
The point is that Chinese companies don't have to invest billions in Venezuela. They already control its export markets for oil and most minerals, thanks to U.S. sanctions. You don't buy something that you already own.
My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Venezuela is not taking Chevron’s oil fields and giving them to Chinese firms. But here is how the country is becoming fully dependent on Beijing.
First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com
While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...
oilprice.com
June 15, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Venezuela is not taking Chevron’s oil fields and giving them to Chinese firms. But here is how the country is becoming fully dependent on Beijing.
First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
So far we have:
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.
guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.
guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...
Chinese Communist Party delegation visits Venezuela - Guacamaya
A Chinese Communist Party (CCP) delegation arrived in Caracas, Venezuela on Tuesday, where it is meeting with President Nicolás Maduro.
guacamayave.com
June 11, 2025 at 4:32 PM
So far we have:
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.
guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.
guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...
En VPITV esta mañana, sobre el efecto económico de la salida de Chevron, y lo que dijo ayer Delcy Rodríguez de que todos los campos petroleros siguen en plena producción.
youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...
youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...
Se acabó la Válvula de Escape - Elías Ferrer
YouTube video by VPItv
youtu.be
May 30, 2025 at 5:39 PM
En VPITV esta mañana, sobre el efecto económico de la salida de Chevron, y lo que dijo ayer Delcy Rodríguez de que todos los campos petroleros siguen en plena producción.
youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...
youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...
Con mis comentarios sobre los “contratos de participación productiva” y como nuevas empresas chinas estarían entrando en la producción de crudo venezolano.
bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...
bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...
Así enfrentaría Venezuela ese de operaciones de petroleras
Maduro ha estado preparándose para el cese de operaciones de las petroleras: una de las piezas que ha movido es usar la figura de los CPP
bitacoraeconomica.com
May 27, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Con mis comentarios sobre los “contratos de participación productiva” y como nuevas empresas chinas estarían entrando en la producción de crudo venezolano.
bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...
bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...
El jueves estuve en un seminario web de FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy, con Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn y Brian Fonseca.
Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:
hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...
Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:
hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...
Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Revocatoria de las licencias ya se siente en Venezuela: empeora la economía y crece presencia de China, Rusia e Irán - HispanoPost
Ya está en marcha en Venezuela lo que expertos han llamado la segunda parte de la película “Máxima presión”, en referencia a la política de sanciones -que incluye la revocatoria de las licencias petro...
hispanopost.com
May 24, 2025 at 10:31 PM
El jueves estuve en un seminario web de FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy, con Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn y Brian Fonseca.
Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:
hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...
Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:
hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...
Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Just realized that Brazilian media picked up my best quote (from the FIU webinar) and just threw it in there with no context:
www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...
www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...
Sanções de Trump na Venezuela, incerteza e recessão à vista
A Venezuela ainda não se recuperou de seu colapso econômico e a possibilidade de uma nova recessão está nas mãos do presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, se ele revogar ou prorrogar as permissõ...
www.opovo.com.br
May 24, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Just realized that Brazilian media picked up my best quote (from the FIU webinar) and just threw it in there with no context:
www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...
www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...
"Three House Republicans from southern Florida nearly derailed passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package this week in protest of an apparent presidential reversal of sanctions on Venezuela," from @washingtonpost.com.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Rubio and Grenell, Trump’s dueling diplomats, clash over Venezuela
A policy clash between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy for special missions, nearly scuttled the House tax and spending bill.
www.washingtonpost.com
May 24, 2025 at 3:26 PM
"Three House Republicans from southern Florida nearly derailed passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package this week in protest of an apparent presidential reversal of sanctions on Venezuela," from @washingtonpost.com.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Yesterday, I spoke at the FIU Gordon Institute webinar with Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn and Brian Fonseca.
"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"
You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"
You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States
YouTube video by FIU Gordon Institute
www.youtube.com
May 23, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Yesterday, I spoke at the FIU Gordon Institute webinar with Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn and Brian Fonseca.
"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"
You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"
You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...
Un amigo acaba de experimentar el paseo millonario, así como tuve la oportunidad yo mismo en enero.
Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.
Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.
May 20, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Un amigo acaba de experimentar el paseo millonario, así como tuve la oportunidad yo mismo en enero.
Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.
Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.