As someone who generally agrees that moderation is good, it's really disappointing how dishonest some of election Twitter is when it comes to Mamdani. There is *NOTHING* to take away about partisan baselines in a race vs a former Dem governor who was part of an NYC political dynasty.

Does Nate Silver of all people really not understand one of the fundamental laws of OLS? You can't regress a modeled estimate on something correlated with the things used to calculate that estimate. It's one of the cardinal sins of statistics.

his thesis is literally "moderation has never been tried", it's incredible

Oh, and why have others who tried this trick failed you ask, and why might they fail in the future? Well, the answer happens to also align with my thesis!

This is a great addition to the "everyone is 12" theory. Apparently the last 12 years of politics could have been fixed with this 22 year old's one simple trick that no one has ever tried!

At the Final Fantasy Orchestra World Tour in Boston!