farmdoc daily
@farmdocdaily.bsky.social
Farmdoc daily — at the Univeristy of Illinois — provides research, analysis, tools, and data to help Corn Belt farmers make better decisions.
3/3 More #rented acres are now needed to generate the returns needed to help finance #farmland #purchases. This has created greater risk exposure for farms that are more heavily reliant on rented farmland.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
Cash Requirements of Owned Farmland: 2025 vs. 2005 - farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 22, 2025 at 1:09 PM
3/3 More #rented acres are now needed to generate the returns needed to help finance #farmland #purchases. This has created greater risk exposure for farms that are more heavily reliant on rented farmland.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
2/ In contrast, average returns to #rented #farmland have not trended upward as cost increases for other inputs have offset additional revenues from higher corn and soybean prices and yield increases.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
Cash Requirements of Owned Farmland: 2025 vs. 2005 - farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 22, 2025 at 1:09 PM
2/ In contrast, average returns to #rented #farmland have not trended upward as cost increases for other inputs have offset additional revenues from higher corn and soybean prices and yield increases.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
3/3 By 2024, vulnerable #farms — despite their higher leverage — earned both the highest gross farm #returns per acre and the least negative management returns among all groups.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
3/3 By 2024, vulnerable #farms — despite their higher leverage — earned both the highest gross farm #returns per acre and the least negative management returns among all groups.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
2/ Strong grain #farms (< 30% debt-to-asset ratio) experienced the steepest drop, followed by cautionary farms (30–60%), while vulnerable farms (> 60%) reported the smallest decline.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
Solvency Series: Per Acre Gross Farm and Management Returns of Illinois Grain Farms by their Debt Burden - farmdoc daily
Gerald Mashange and Bradley Zwilling -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
2/ Strong grain #farms (< 30% debt-to-asset ratio) experienced the steepest drop, followed by cautionary farms (30–60%), while vulnerable farms (> 60%) reported the smallest decline.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
3/3 Historical models predicting #soybean #prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush - farmdoc daily
Joe Janzen and Yu-Chi Wang - Since 2020, the renewable diesel boom has disrupted longstanding soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil's share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values ...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 14, 2025 at 12:17 PM
3/3 Historical models predicting #soybean #prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
2/ Since 2020, the #renewable #diesel boom has disrupted longstanding #soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush - farmdoc daily
Joe Janzen and Yu-Chi Wang - Since 2020, the renewable diesel boom has disrupted longstanding soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil's share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values ...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 14, 2025 at 12:17 PM
2/ Since 2020, the #renewable #diesel boom has disrupted longstanding #soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
3/3 Since 2020, physical storage #cost and interest opportunity cost have both increased, resulting in higher total storage cost. This largely holds whether total storage cost is measured per bushel or per acre of production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
Annual Cost of Storing US Corn and Soybeans Since 1973 - farmdoc daily
Carl Zulauf, Nick Paulson, and Joe Janzen -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 3, 2025 at 11:01 AM
3/3 Since 2020, physical storage #cost and interest opportunity cost have both increased, resulting in higher total storage cost. This largely holds whether total storage cost is measured per bushel or per acre of production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
2/ From 2005 through 2020 and especially for #corn, a somewhat larger increase in physical storage #cost was mostly, but not completely, offset by an interest opportunity cost that approached zero.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
Annual Cost of Storing US Corn and Soybeans Since 1973 - farmdoc daily
Carl Zulauf, Nick Paulson, and Joe Janzen -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 3, 2025 at 11:01 AM
2/ From 2005 through 2020 and especially for #corn, a somewhat larger increase in physical storage #cost was mostly, but not completely, offset by an interest opportunity cost that approached zero.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
3/3 Taken together, the evidence suggests that while most #farms are well-positioned to weather higher borrowing #costs, those with the heaviest #debt loads face the highest financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
Solvency Series: Debt Related Characteristics of Grain Farms by Debt Service Costs in 2024 - farmdoc daily
Gerald Mashange and Bradley Zwilling - Farms in the high interest expense cohort remain in a cautionary leverage position (debt-to-asset ratio of 30-60%), with rising debt and surging interest costs p...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 2, 2025 at 12:42 PM
3/3 Taken together, the evidence suggests that while most #farms are well-positioned to weather higher borrowing #costs, those with the heaviest #debt loads face the highest financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
2/ By contrast, #farms in the moderate-high interest #expense cohort have generally strengthened their balance sheets, keeping leverage in the strong range (debt-to-asset ratio <30%) even as interest costs began to rise after 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
Solvency Series: Debt Related Characteristics of Grain Farms by Debt Service Costs in 2024 - farmdoc daily
Gerald Mashange and Bradley Zwilling - Farms in the high interest expense cohort remain in a cautionary leverage position (debt-to-asset ratio of 30-60%), with rising debt and surging interest costs p...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 2, 2025 at 12:42 PM
2/ By contrast, #farms in the moderate-high interest #expense cohort have generally strengthened their balance sheets, keeping leverage in the strong range (debt-to-asset ratio <30%) even as interest costs began to rise after 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
3/3 However, high non-land production #costs continue to suggest negative #farmer #returns even under a variable cash #lease from 2023 through 2026.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
Revised Variable Cash Lease Parameters - farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
3/3 However, high non-land production #costs continue to suggest negative #farmer #returns even under a variable cash #lease from 2023 through 2026.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
2/ The revised variable #lease is shown to provide larger downward adjustment in #rent levels than have or are expected to occur with average cash rents.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
Revised Variable Cash Lease Parameters - farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf -
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
October 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
2/ The revised variable #lease is shown to provide larger downward adjustment in #rent levels than have or are expected to occur with average cash rents.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
3/3 For 2026, #prices are forecast to average $91.63/cwt in the 1st quarter and then rise seasonally to $98.82/cwt and $101.45/cwt in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
Surprisingly Tight Supplies; Higher Prices Ahead! - farmdoc daily
Jason Franken - The USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some herd expansion, as the prior June report implied greater slaughter numbers than obs...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
September 30, 2025 at 12:35 PM
3/3 For 2026, #prices are forecast to average $91.63/cwt in the 1st quarter and then rise seasonally to $98.82/cwt and $101.45/cwt in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
2/ As such, the Sept. 1 inventory of all #hogs and #pigs, at 74.5 million head, is up 1.02% from revised estimates for last quarter but down 1.35% from last year. Prices are forecast to drop to an average of $94.56/cwt for the 4th quarter of 2025.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
Surprisingly Tight Supplies; Higher Prices Ahead! - farmdoc daily
Jason Franken - The USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some herd expansion, as the prior June report implied greater slaughter numbers than obs...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
September 30, 2025 at 12:35 PM
2/ As such, the Sept. 1 inventory of all #hogs and #pigs, at 74.5 million head, is up 1.02% from revised estimates for last quarter but down 1.35% from last year. Prices are forecast to drop to an average of $94.56/cwt for the 4th quarter of 2025.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
3/3 With U.S. #farm sector #debt projected to reach $591.8 billion in 2025 and farm #bankruptcies rising, farmers should prioritize diligent record keeping and monitor debt ratios to ensure sufficient margins for debt payments.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
Solvency Series: Healthy Debt-to-Asset Ratios Amid Rising Debt Servicing Costs - farmdoc daily
Gerald Mashange and Bradley Zwilling - Our analysis of the distribution of the debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most grain farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) ...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
September 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
3/3 With U.S. #farm sector #debt projected to reach $591.8 billion in 2025 and farm #bankruptcies rising, farmers should prioritize diligent record keeping and monitor debt ratios to ensure sufficient margins for debt payments.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
2/ However, the recent sharp rise in interest #expense per tillable acre, especially for the 25% of farms with the highest #debt servicing costs, signals an increase in financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
Solvency Series: Healthy Debt-to-Asset Ratios Amid Rising Debt Servicing Costs - farmdoc daily
Gerald Mashange and Bradley Zwilling - Our analysis of the distribution of the debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most grain farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) ...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
September 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
2/ However, the recent sharp rise in interest #expense per tillable acre, especially for the 25% of farms with the highest #debt servicing costs, signals an increase in financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
3/3 Policy responses, like payments, that keep #costs high while #prices and #incomes drop are paying farmers to drive combines over the proverbial cliff and into crisis. Can we do better this time around?
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
History & Tough Reality: When Payments Do More Harm Than Good, Consider Other Options - farmdoc daily
Jonathan Coppess and Otto Doering - Maybe history can provide handrails in turbulent, difficult times. For many farmers, this harvest season threatens such times. Some of the crops being combined in f...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
September 26, 2025 at 12:27 PM
3/3 Policy responses, like payments, that keep #costs high while #prices and #incomes drop are paying farmers to drive combines over the proverbial cliff and into crisis. Can we do better this time around?
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...