farmdoc daily
@farmdocdaily.bsky.social
Farmdoc daily — at the Univeristy of Illinois — provides research, analysis, tools, and data to help Corn Belt farmers make better decisions.
1/ Over the past twenty years, average cash #rents have more than doubled in Illinois while the cash requirements associated with #farmland ownership have more than tripled.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
October 22, 2025 at 1:09 PM
1/ Over the past twenty years, average cash #rents have more than doubled in Illinois while the cash requirements associated with #farmland ownership have more than tripled.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
3/3 By 2024, vulnerable #farms — despite their higher leverage — earned both the highest gross farm #returns per acre and the least negative management returns among all groups.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
3/3 By 2024, vulnerable #farms — despite their higher leverage — earned both the highest gross farm #returns per acre and the least negative management returns among all groups.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
1/ Median management #returns declined sharply across all debt categories from 2022 to 2024, but the pattern of decline varied meaningfully by financial position.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
1/ Median management #returns declined sharply across all debt categories from 2022 to 2024, but the pattern of decline varied meaningfully by financial position.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
1/ The US #soybean industry has responded to the #renewable #diesel boom by increasing production of soybean oil, an important feedstock in bio-based diesel production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
October 14, 2025 at 12:17 PM
1/ The US #soybean industry has responded to the #renewable #diesel boom by increasing production of soybean oil, an important feedstock in bio-based diesel production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
1/ Total #storage #cost for US #corn and #soybeans changed little from 1974 through 2005. Declining interest opportunity cost due to declining interest rates offset small, on-going increases in physical storage cost.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
October 3, 2025 at 11:01 AM
1/ Total #storage #cost for US #corn and #soybeans changed little from 1974 through 2005. Declining interest opportunity cost due to declining interest rates offset small, on-going increases in physical storage cost.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
1/ #Farms in the high #interest expense cohort remain in a cautionary leverage position (debt-to-asset ratio of 30-60%), with rising #debt and surging interest costs posing clear financial stress despite asset growth.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
October 2, 2025 at 12:42 PM
1/ #Farms in the high #interest expense cohort remain in a cautionary leverage position (debt-to-asset ratio of 30-60%), with rising #debt and surging interest costs posing clear financial stress despite asset growth.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
1/ Revised #rent factors for a simple variable #cash #lease are slightly lower than those previously estimated in 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
October 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
1/ Revised #rent factors for a simple variable #cash #lease are slightly lower than those previously estimated in 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
1/ The USDA’s September #Hogs and #Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some #herd expansion, this report’s downward revisions of June 1 inventories by nearly 2% appear to be the alternative explanation.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
September 30, 2025 at 12:35 PM
1/ The USDA’s September #Hogs and #Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some #herd expansion, this report’s downward revisions of June 1 inventories by nearly 2% appear to be the alternative explanation.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
1/ Our analysis of the distribution of the #debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most #grain #farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) over the past two decades.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
September 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
1/ Our analysis of the distribution of the #debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most #grain #farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) over the past two decades.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
1/ Ultimately, federal taxpayer-funded #payments for farmers are no match for the tough reality of lost demand or damaged #markets. For example, in 2024 alone, the U.S. exported almost $176 billion worth of agricultural products.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
September 26, 2025 at 12:27 PM
1/ Ultimately, federal taxpayer-funded #payments for farmers are no match for the tough reality of lost demand or damaged #markets. For example, in 2024 alone, the U.S. exported almost $176 billion worth of agricultural products.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
3/3 If a #trade deal isn’t reached this fall, U.S. #soybean producers reliant on Chinese buyers could suffer significant losses, adding even more financial stress to crop farms.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
September 23, 2025 at 12:34 PM
3/3 If a #trade deal isn’t reached this fall, U.S. #soybean producers reliant on Chinese buyers could suffer significant losses, adding even more financial stress to crop farms.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
1/ U.S. #soybean #harvest began in September without any orders from the world’s largest buyer: #China. American producers are harvesting a crop the USDA estimates at 4.3 billion bushels, and there is no indication of when shipments to China will resume.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
September 23, 2025 at 12:34 PM
1/ U.S. #soybean #harvest began in September without any orders from the world’s largest buyer: #China. American producers are harvesting a crop the USDA estimates at 4.3 billion bushels, and there is no indication of when shipments to China will resume.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
1/ The financial results on all #Illinois #farms show that on average 2024 was a poorer financial year due to lower incomes. Grain farms had their highest #income ever in 2021 and 2022, leading to build ups of cash and other assets.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/illi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/illi...
September 22, 2025 at 12:27 PM
1/ The financial results on all #Illinois #farms show that on average 2024 was a poorer financial year due to lower incomes. Grain farms had their highest #income ever in 2021 and 2022, leading to build ups of cash and other assets.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/illi...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/illi...
1/ The Federal Reserve yesterday lowered the federal funds #rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%. The decision to cut rates reflects a cautious pivot toward supporting employment, even as #inflation remains above target.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/unpa...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/unpa...
September 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM
1/ The Federal Reserve yesterday lowered the federal funds #rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%. The decision to cut rates reflects a cautious pivot toward supporting employment, even as #inflation remains above target.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/unpa...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/unpa...
1/ For the 2026 crop year, a new #crop #insurance endorsement called Margin Coverage Option (MCO) is available. MCO is an area-based product protecting against operating #margin #declines driven by falling output prices, rising input costs, or both.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/a-ne...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/a-ne...
September 17, 2025 at 12:33 PM
1/ For the 2026 crop year, a new #crop #insurance endorsement called Margin Coverage Option (MCO) is available. MCO is an area-based product protecting against operating #margin #declines driven by falling output prices, rising input costs, or both.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/a-ne...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/a-ne...
1/ #Corn and #soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, #prices ended up for the day.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/corn...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/corn...
September 16, 2025 at 12:51 PM
1/ #Corn and #soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, #prices ended up for the day.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/corn...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/corn...
1/ The implication of this set of four articles is that the US #grain and #oilseed sector should focus less on #SouthAmerica and #China. This implication is consistent with the multivariable regression analysis in this article.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
September 15, 2025 at 12:28 PM
1/ The implication of this set of four articles is that the US #grain and #oilseed sector should focus less on #SouthAmerica and #China. This implication is consistent with the multivariable regression analysis in this article.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
1/ The #renewable #diesel boom has coincided with significant shifts in the quantity and composition of #soybean crush output. Since 2020, oil extraction rates have jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/the-...
September 11, 2025 at 12:50 PM
1/ The #renewable #diesel boom has coincided with significant shifts in the quantity and composition of #soybean crush output. Since 2020, oil extraction rates have jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/the-...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/the-...
3/3 Additional declines in cash #rents and other production #costs will be needed to achieve break-even or positive returns to corn and soybean production on rented farmland in #Illinois at current price levels.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
September 10, 2025 at 11:00 AM
3/3 Additional declines in cash #rents and other production #costs will be needed to achieve break-even or positive returns to corn and soybean production on rented farmland in #Illinois at current price levels.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
1/ Average #cash #rents declined in #Illinois from 2024 to 2025, led by reductions in areas with higher soil productivity. Continued low return projections suggest further reductions in cash rents will occur for 2026.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
September 10, 2025 at 11:00 AM
1/ Average #cash #rents declined in #Illinois from 2024 to 2025, led by reductions in areas with higher soil productivity. Continued low return projections suggest further reductions in cash rents will occur for 2026.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/cons...
3/3 Of the four #MAHA Commission priorities, we find the public believes addressing poor #diet and aggregation of environmental #chemicals are most important.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
September 9, 2025 at 12:40 PM
3/3 Of the four #MAHA Commission priorities, we find the public believes addressing poor #diet and aggregation of environmental #chemicals are most important.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
1/ Results from the Gardner Food and Ag Policy Survey find that awareness of Make America Healthy Again (#MAHA) remains high and continues to be popular. Support over the last three months, particularly amongst Democratic respondents, has waned.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
September 9, 2025 at 12:40 PM
1/ Results from the Gardner Food and Ag Policy Survey find that awareness of Make America Healthy Again (#MAHA) remains high and continues to be popular. Support over the last three months, particularly amongst Democratic respondents, has waned.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/trac...
1/ Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (hereafter, ROW) has produced fewer #grains and #oilseeds than it has consumed.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
September 4, 2025 at 10:59 AM
1/ Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (hereafter, ROW) has produced fewer #grains and #oilseeds than it has consumed.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/grai...
1/ #Machinery #cost estimates for 2025 have been released and are available in the Management section on the farmdoc daily website. As is usual, estimated machinery costs have increased, with most increases in the 1% to 14% range.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/mach...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/mach...
September 3, 2025 at 12:38 PM
1/ #Machinery #cost estimates for 2025 have been released and are available in the Management section on the farmdoc daily website. As is usual, estimated machinery costs have increased, with most increases in the 1% to 14% range.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/mach...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/mach...
1/ A recent survey pertaining to #farm goals shows only about 50% of the sample of farms are expected to #grow in the next 5 years. Of the remaining 50%, 40% expect to remain the same size and 10% expect to reduce the size of their farm.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/fact...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/fact...
September 1, 2025 at 12:30 PM
1/ A recent survey pertaining to #farm goals shows only about 50% of the sample of farms are expected to #grow in the next 5 years. Of the remaining 50%, 40% expect to remain the same size and 10% expect to reduce the size of their farm.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/fact...
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/fact...