Mike Famulare
@famulare.bsky.social
epistemologically promiscuous
Professional: systems epidemiologist, see Google Scholar.
Personal: learning to be a man in this life and not the last.
Blog: famulare.github.io
Professional: systems epidemiologist, see Google Scholar.
Personal: learning to be a man in this life and not the last.
Blog: famulare.github.io
What's a poster you had in your room growing up?
June 25, 2025 at 5:06 PM
What's a poster you had in your room growing up?
After 20 hours in France
May 7, 2025 at 9:20 AM
After 20 hours in France
Glad to hear you’re still going strong
March 26, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Glad to hear you’re still going strong
March 14, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Food $200
Data $150
Rent $800
COVID tests $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
Data $150
Rent $800
COVID tests $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
March 7, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Food $200
Data $150
Rent $800
COVID tests $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
Data $150
Rent $800
COVID tests $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
But, on day 12, my nose/throat sample is hot a hell again! Dammit, how infectious am I???
I wore a clean mask for 4.25 hours, through work, talking, singning Moo Baa Fa La La to my daughter, etc. Tested the mask. It was barely positive--at the limit of detection but it's there.
I wore a clean mask for 4.25 hours, through work, talking, singning Moo Baa Fa La La to my daughter, etc. Tested the mask. It was barely positive--at the limit of detection but it's there.
March 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
But, on day 12, my nose/throat sample is hot a hell again! Dammit, how infectious am I???
I wore a clean mask for 4.25 hours, through work, talking, singning Moo Baa Fa La La to my daughter, etc. Tested the mask. It was barely positive--at the limit of detection but it's there.
I wore a clean mask for 4.25 hours, through work, talking, singning Moo Baa Fa La La to my daughter, etc. Tested the mask. It was barely positive--at the limit of detection but it's there.
Overnight from day 2 to day 3, I was able to pull virus off a mask put inside my bedside hepa filter, showing that SARS-CoV-2 was travelling on fine aerosols. You see that quantified here, as the day 3 hepa measurement. bsky.app/profile/fam...
March 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Overnight from day 2 to day 3, I was able to pull virus off a mask put inside my bedside hepa filter, showing that SARS-CoV-2 was travelling on fine aerosols. You see that quantified here, as the day 3 hepa measurement. bsky.app/profile/fam...
So anyway, stool sampling with rapid tests has been a letdown, but mask, hepa, nose, and throat sampling have been interesting! Here's a panel of days I tested samples from sites other than combined nose-throat. Y-axis is est. viral load relative to nose-throat day 2 (peak).
March 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
So anyway, stool sampling with rapid tests has been a letdown, but mask, hepa, nose, and throat sampling have been interesting! Here's a panel of days I tested samples from sites other than combined nose-throat. Y-axis is est. viral load relative to nose-throat day 2 (peak).
Here's the same with log10-y. So yeah, we've both rebounded. I took paxlovid days 3-7 (and have been on metformin since day 2). My load crashed by day 7 and went negative days 9 and 10. Marisa hasn't had any treatments, and never went negative, but 10-fold rebound regardless.
March 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Here's the same with log10-y. So yeah, we've both rebounded. I took paxlovid days 3-7 (and have been on metformin since day 2). My load crashed by day 7 and went negative days 9 and 10. Marisa hasn't had any treatments, and never went negative, but 10-fold rebound regardless.
The Famulare family COVID saga continues. Up today: rebound 🤬
bsky.app/profile/fam...
With my wife Marisa's consent, here is our estimated nose/throat viral load history relative to peak since I first tested positive on day 2 of my symptoms. We're both experiencing rebound!
bsky.app/profile/fam...
With my wife Marisa's consent, here is our estimated nose/throat viral load history relative to peak since I first tested positive on day 2 of my symptoms. We're both experiencing rebound!
March 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
The Famulare family COVID saga continues. Up today: rebound 🤬
bsky.app/profile/fam...
With my wife Marisa's consent, here is our estimated nose/throat viral load history relative to peak since I first tested positive on day 2 of my symptoms. We're both experiencing rebound!
bsky.app/profile/fam...
With my wife Marisa's consent, here is our estimated nose/throat viral load history relative to peak since I first tested positive on day 2 of my symptoms. We're both experiencing rebound!
So, just for fun, the figures below shows the precise estimate for the relative viral load for the nose and mask on day 8 vs day 2, and the upper bound for the mask
February 28, 2025 at 11:28 PM
So, just for fun, the figures below shows the precise estimate for the relative viral load for the nose and mask on day 8 vs day 2, and the upper bound for the mask
The day 8 mask, even after 11 hours, was NEGATIVE negative. No signal from background at all.
February 28, 2025 at 11:28 PM
The day 8 mask, even after 11 hours, was NEGATIVE negative. No signal from background at all.
The day 2 mask after an hour was positive, solidly at the mouth and juuuust barely at the top by the nose, out of the jet zone. (The side sample looks negative by eye, but the brightness dips very slightly, from background ~140/255 to test ~137/255, as seen with a color picker.)
February 28, 2025 at 11:27 PM
The day 2 mask after an hour was positive, solidly at the mouth and juuuust barely at the top by the nose, out of the jet zone. (The side sample looks negative by eye, but the brightness dips very slightly, from background ~140/255 to test ~137/255, as seen with a color picker.)
For the very curious, the dog has tested negative via stool sample.
February 27, 2025 at 7:03 PM
For the very curious, the dog has tested negative via stool sample.
So anwyay, with that in mind, I can stich together estimates of the pcr-equvialent ct value I would've likely had, and the relative genome copies from peak. Here ya go!
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
So anwyay, with that in mind, I can stich together estimates of the pcr-equvialent ct value I would've likely had, and the relative genome copies from peak. Here ya go!
And since the y-axis units don't have an absolute scale anymore, let's also just plot it as adjusted darkness relative to peak. What we see by eye at the top is now clear: after a small decline in antigen detected over the first 5 days, day 7 was ~12x less intense.
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
And since the y-axis units don't have an absolute scale anymore, let's also just plot it as adjusted darkness relative to peak. What we see by eye at the top is now clear: after a small decline in antigen detected over the first 5 days, day 7 was ~12x less intense.
So, we go one step further to normalize the test line darkness relative to the control. And now we have a nice time trend of antigen detected.
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
So, we go one step further to normalize the test line darkness relative to the control. And now we have a nice time trend of antigen detected.
Second, normalize the test and control data by the background to get the excess darkness relative to the lighting and materials (and put it on a log scale). The control line is less variable now, although there is still a difference between flowflex (day 2,7) and iHealth.
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Second, normalize the test and control data by the background to get the excess darkness relative to the lighting and materials (and put it on a log scale). The control line is less variable now, although there is still a difference between flowflex (day 2,7) and iHealth.
First, convert to grayscale and use a color picker to grab approximate absolute brightness data for the test line, the control line, and the test strip background. Put that in a spreadsheet and plot.
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
First, convert to grayscale and use a color picker to grab approximate absolute brightness data for the test line, the control line, and the test strip background. Put that in a spreadsheet and plot.
As you can see, I went from screaming hot viral load on symptomatic days 2 thru 5, to very low but still detectable on day 7. Along the way, on day 5, I lost much of my sense of taste and smell, but it started coming back yesterday and is not bad today.
x.com/famulare_mi...
x.com/famulare_mi...
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
As you can see, I went from screaming hot viral load on symptomatic days 2 thru 5, to very low but still detectable on day 7. Along the way, on day 5, I lost much of my sense of taste and smell, but it started coming back yesterday and is not bad today.
x.com/famulare_mi...
x.com/famulare_mi...
New COVID personal science thread: observations on viral load.🧵
Fun inside!
Viral load plummeted after 4 days of Paxlovid. I did some math* to estimate changes in viral load.
*somewhere between back-of-the-envelope and semi-quantitative modeling
x.com/famulare_mi...
Fun inside!
Viral load plummeted after 4 days of Paxlovid. I did some math* to estimate changes in viral load.
*somewhere between back-of-the-envelope and semi-quantitative modeling
x.com/famulare_mi...
February 26, 2025 at 11:57 PM
New COVID personal science thread: observations on viral load.🧵
Fun inside!
Viral load plummeted after 4 days of Paxlovid. I did some math* to estimate changes in viral load.
*somewhere between back-of-the-envelope and semi-quantitative modeling
x.com/famulare_mi...
Fun inside!
Viral load plummeted after 4 days of Paxlovid. I did some math* to estimate changes in viral load.
*somewhere between back-of-the-envelope and semi-quantitative modeling
x.com/famulare_mi...
Brief interlude. Viral load still frustratingly high despite two days of paxlovid and metformin. Not a surprise given the data, but still. 😡
So how do we help keep the bathroom clear, since we don’t have hepas and windows like everywhere else? Far UV-C from
@nukit.bsky.social
So how do we help keep the bathroom clear, since we don’t have hepas and windows like everywhere else? Far UV-C from
@nukit.bsky.social
February 24, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Brief interlude. Viral load still frustratingly high despite two days of paxlovid and metformin. Not a surprise given the data, but still. 😡
So how do we help keep the bathroom clear, since we don’t have hepas and windows like everywhere else? Far UV-C from
@nukit.bsky.social
So how do we help keep the bathroom clear, since we don’t have hepas and windows like everywhere else? Far UV-C from
@nukit.bsky.social
Result after testing a square centimeter of mask filter? Positive! (Nose/throat this morning on left, overnight HEPA on right).
February 22, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Result after testing a square centimeter of mask filter? Positive! (Nose/throat this morning on left, overnight HEPA on right).