And the magnitude of those errors can vary substantially across states - with significant consequences.

Crucially, polling errors tend to be greater at state level - which is crucial for the outcome in the Electoral College.

That doesn’t mean the polls can’t tell us anything. Every day we learn a little bit more about the likely result.

Given the history of polling accuracy in recent US presidential elections it really is far too close to make confident predictions. We are a normal polling miss away from a decisive victory for either candidate.

In April 2023 the @WHYY public radio show Fresh Air With Terry Gross did an episode on How Private Equity Firms Widen The Income Gap www.npr.org/2023/04/26/1...