Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
@ethanbdm.bsky.social
Studying accountability, national security, electoral accountability, political economy, tech & society, applied game theory @HarrisPolicy
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Just want to say that @amiethomasson.bsky.social's "Ontology Made Easy" is really wonderful.
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
October 3, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Just want to say that @amiethomasson.bsky.social's "Ontology Made Easy" is really wonderful.
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
Just here to say:
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
September 15, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Just here to say:
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
I mean, a promise is a promise, but I'm starting to feel as thought we'd be justified if we were to forget the way they thrilled the nation, with their T-formation.
September 14, 2025 at 6:32 PM
I mean, a promise is a promise, but I'm starting to feel as thought we'd be justified if we were to forget the way they thrilled the nation, with their T-formation.
Dear Intro Game Theory Instructors,
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
September 13, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Dear Intro Game Theory Instructors,
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
We live in an age of technological wonders.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
August 28, 2025 at 9:30 PM
We live in an age of technological wonders.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
The Straussian reading of this whole thread is interesting.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
I’m unhappy with the wikipedia article on the median voter theorem.
August 21, 2025 at 3:38 PM
The Straussian reading of this whole thread is interesting.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
I see a lot of folks posting about that NYTimes article. So I'm just going to say something I know you all already know, but is important.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
August 10, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I see a lot of folks posting about that NYTimes article. So I'm just going to say something I know you all already know, but is important.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
It is that time of year again.
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
Andalusian Gazpacho Recipe
This gazpacho recipe calls for salting and draining the vegetables and then freezing them, which helps extract flavorful juices from their cellular structure.
www.seriouseats.com
August 9, 2025 at 4:25 PM
It is that time of year again.
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
This was a fun episode of Not Another Politics Podcast with Adam Mastriani.
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Do We Understand Members Of The Other Party?
Podcast Episode · Not Another Politics Podcast · 08/07/2025 · 54m
podcasts.apple.com
August 8, 2025 at 2:53 PM
This was a fun episode of Not Another Politics Podcast with Adam Mastriani.
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Breaking news from the NYTimes opinion page:
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
August 8, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Breaking news from the NYTimes opinion page:
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
I asked AI whether this was safe and it reassured me by pointing out that an important paper by Fearon and Powell (1979) proves that AI-driven nuclear command and control with a human on the loop guarantees lower risk of nuclear war in equilibrium.
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems. www.wired.com/story/nuclea...
Nuclear Experts Say Mixing AI and Nuclear Weapons Is Inevitable
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems.
www.wired.com
August 6, 2025 at 12:29 PM
I asked AI whether this was safe and it reassured me by pointing out that an important paper by Fearon and Powell (1979) proves that AI-driven nuclear command and control with a human on the loop guarantees lower risk of nuclear war in equilibrium.
My son is home from college for the summer.
He truly has been indoctrinated by high ed ideology.
Anyway, after one too many disagreements, I had to lay down the law. I told him that as long as he is living under our roof he will respect our values and be a linguistic prescriptivist.
He truly has been indoctrinated by high ed ideology.
Anyway, after one too many disagreements, I had to lay down the law. I told him that as long as he is living under our roof he will respect our values and be a linguistic prescriptivist.
June 24, 2025 at 2:24 AM
My son is home from college for the summer.
He truly has been indoctrinated by high ed ideology.
Anyway, after one too many disagreements, I had to lay down the law. I told him that as long as he is living under our roof he will respect our values and be a linguistic prescriptivist.
He truly has been indoctrinated by high ed ideology.
Anyway, after one too many disagreements, I had to lay down the law. I told him that as long as he is living under our roof he will respect our values and be a linguistic prescriptivist.
We did a Not Another Politics Podcast on the Trump administration’s approach to universities and how it builds on the Obama administration’s.
With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy".
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy".
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
Is Trump Copying Obama’s Playbook on Universities?
Podcast Episode · Not Another Politics Podcast · 05/28/2025 · 58m
podcasts.apple.com
May 29, 2025 at 12:24 PM
We did a Not Another Politics Podcast on the Trump administration’s approach to universities and how it builds on the Obama administration’s.
With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy".
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy".
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
I've been using ChatGPT (both o3 and 4.0 depending on task) to help copy edit a new paper.
While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs.
But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed.
It contains multitudes.
While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs.
But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed.
It contains multitudes.
May 14, 2025 at 8:20 PM
I've been using ChatGPT (both o3 and 4.0 depending on task) to help copy edit a new paper.
While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs.
But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed.
It contains multitudes.
While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs.
But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed.
It contains multitudes.
Really looking forward to spending a couple of days at LSE, including this evening's talk.
Very excited about @ethanbdm.bsky.social's lecture "AI goes to war" today at LSE at 6pm. Register here: www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-pu...
AI goes to war – a lecture by Professor Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
6.00pm Monday 31 March | Ethan Bueno de Mesquita | Registration Required | Free hybrid public event at LSE
www.lse.ac.uk
March 31, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Really looking forward to spending a couple of days at LSE, including this evening's talk.
If it weren't for the fundamental problem of causal inference, what would people write op-eds about?
March 29, 2025 at 4:03 PM
If it weren't for the fundamental problem of causal inference, what would people write op-eds about?
Confused about why jet lag exists.
There was no email in the evolutionary environment, so how did nature know I needed to wake up at 3:30 AM to get a jump start on my email inbox after vacation?
There was no email in the evolutionary environment, so how did nature know I needed to wake up at 3:30 AM to get a jump start on my email inbox after vacation?
March 21, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Confused about why jet lag exists.
There was no email in the evolutionary environment, so how did nature know I needed to wake up at 3:30 AM to get a jump start on my email inbox after vacation?
There was no email in the evolutionary environment, so how did nature know I needed to wake up at 3:30 AM to get a jump start on my email inbox after vacation?
Leave aside how endowments work, I'd like people to just understand that if the overhead rate is 60%, that means the university is collecting 35% of the research $ for admin costs, not 60%.
Overhead on $1 million grant is $0.6m. So total award is $1.6m and admin percent is .6/1.6 = 35%.
Overhead on $1 million grant is $0.6m. So total award is $1.6m and admin percent is .6/1.6 = 35%.
March 14, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Leave aside how endowments work, I'd like people to just understand that if the overhead rate is 60%, that means the university is collecting 35% of the research $ for admin costs, not 60%.
Overhead on $1 million grant is $0.6m. So total award is $1.6m and admin percent is .6/1.6 = 35%.
Overhead on $1 million grant is $0.6m. So total award is $1.6m and admin percent is .6/1.6 = 35%.
Reposted by Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
Federal judge simply isn't buying Florida's claims about kids and social media www.techdirt.com/2025/03/11/j...
March 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Federal judge simply isn't buying Florida's claims about kids and social media www.techdirt.com/2025/03/11/j...
February 26, 2025 at 1:13 AM
New episode of the Not Another Politics Podcast for your listening pleasure!
effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-t...
effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-t...
Is The "Strong Economy Equals Incumbent Victory" Theory Wrong?
Conventional wisdom says that a strong economy helps incumbents, while a weak economy hurts them. But new research from University of Chicago economist Lubos Pastor titled “Political Cycles and Stock ...
effectivegov.uchicago.edu
January 30, 2025 at 8:24 PM
New episode of the Not Another Politics Podcast for your listening pleasure!
effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-t...
effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-t...
Reposted by Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
Hi new followers!
If you happen to be interested in the separation of powers, Congress, government shutdowns, contempt of Congress, the filibuster, and more, have I got the book for you! www.amazon.com/dp/0300248334/
If you happen to be interested in the separation of powers, Congress, government shutdowns, contempt of Congress, the filibuster, and more, have I got the book for you! www.amazon.com/dp/0300248334/
Congress's Constitution: Legislative Authority and the Separation of Powers: Chafetz, Josh: 9780300248333: Amazon.com: Books
Congress's Constitution: Legislative Authority and the Separation of Powers [Chafetz, Josh] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Congress's Constitution: Legislative Authority and the Separation of Powers
www.amazon.com
November 18, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Hi new followers!
If you happen to be interested in the separation of powers, Congress, government shutdowns, contempt of Congress, the filibuster, and more, have I got the book for you! www.amazon.com/dp/0300248334/
If you happen to be interested in the separation of powers, Congress, government shutdowns, contempt of Congress, the filibuster, and more, have I got the book for you! www.amazon.com/dp/0300248334/
My first episode as co-host of Not Another Politics Podcast discussing work by @danmoskowitz.bsky.social.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
What Are The Forces Shaping Polarization in Congress?
Podcast Episode · Not Another Politics Podcast · 01/16/2025 · 48m
podcasts.apple.com
January 17, 2025 at 2:35 PM
My first episode as co-host of Not Another Politics Podcast discussing work by @danmoskowitz.bsky.social.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
The fires are revealing how good elected officials are at their jobs.
Unbiased information systematically affects electoral fortunes.
This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality.
voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/fil...
Unbiased information systematically affects electoral fortunes.
This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality.
voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/fil...
voices.uchicago.edu
January 12, 2025 at 11:16 PM
The fires are revealing how good elected officials are at their jobs.
Unbiased information systematically affects electoral fortunes.
This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality.
voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/fil...
Unbiased information systematically affects electoral fortunes.
This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality.
voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/fil...