“[The Liberals] can win, they are likely to win, and I think unless something fundamentally changes between now and April 28, they will win”

— @davidcoletto.bsky.social joins the Scrimshaw Show to talk polls, election chances, why the NDP are so screwed, what Poilievre can do, and more!

Day 9 #ScrimshawScoreboard: All Those Headlines Just Bore Me Now

LPC: 200 (+40)
CPC: 118 (-1)
BQ: 18 (-14)
NDP: 6 (-19)
Greens: 1 (-1)

Leaders Losing Seats: Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh

Regionals:

Day 5 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Ahead By (Nearly) A Century

LPC: 196 (+36)
CPC: 122 (+3)
BQ: 19 (-13)
NDP: 5 (-20)
Greens: 1 (-1)

Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May

Regionals:

Day 4 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Are You Bored Of (Carney) Winning Yet?

LPC: 192 (+32)
CPC: 125 (+6)
BQ: 19 (-13)
NDP: 6 (-19)
Greens: 1 (-)

Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May

Regionals:

Campaign Day 2 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Carney’s Ever Increasing Lead

LPC: 189 (+29)
CPC: 127 (+8)
BQ: 20 (-12)
NDP: 6 (-19)
Greens: 1 (-1)

Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May

Regionals:

Election Launch Day #ScrimshawScoreboard: Carney Opens Campaign In Majority Territory

LPC: 185 (+25)
CPC: 126 (+7)
BQ: 22 (-10)
NDP: 8 (-17)
Greens: 2 (-)

Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh (3rd Place, Burnaby Central)

Regionals:

There’s been a flurry of polls, so let’s do a new Ontario #ScrimshawScoreboard:

PCPO: 93 (+10)
NDP: 16 (-15)
Liberals: 12 (+4)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Others: 1 (-)

Bonnie Crombie is now projected ahead in her riding

Every Non-PCPO Seat

Updated for Leger (and today’s Mainstreet Ontario number), the new #ScrimshawScoreboard: Hung Parliament Boogaloo

CPC: 170 (+51)
LPC: 123 (-37)
BQ: 33 (+1)
NDP: 16 (-9)
Greens: 1 (-1)

Leaders losing seats: Jagmeet Singh (NDP), Elizabeth May (Greens)

Regionals:

Not that anybody seems to care about this election, but I’ve got a new Ontario #ScrimshawScoreboard:

PCPO: 96 (+13)
NDP: 16 (-15)
Liberals: 9 (+1)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Others: 1 (-)

Leaders Losing Their Seats: Bonnie Crombie (OLP, down 1.2%)

Every Non-PCPO Seat:

New post-Pallas #ScrimshawScoreboard: Liberals Have A Chance Edition

CPC: 181 (+62)
LPC: 114 (-46)
BQ: 32 (-)
NDP: 15 (-10)
Greens: 1 (-1)

(Changes since 2021 Election)

Leaders losing their seats: Elizabeth May (Greens)

Regional outlook:

I lay my cards on the table here as the Live Blog keeps on keeping on —>

This is a genuinely outstanding housing plan from @bonniecrombie.bsky.social and the OLP and a great victory for the power of good ideas to win out

Proud to be a Liberal today

New #ScrimshawScoreboard after Abacus and Mainstreet’s releases:

PCPO: 81 (-2)
ONDP: 28 (-3)
OLP: 12 (+4)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Others: 1 (-)

(Changes since 2022 election)

Seats Changing Hands:

One of the ideas I pitched last week in my Cabinet Shuffle piece was the creation of a Minister for Canada-America relations that works with both Finance and Foreign Affairs and that works as a point person for the US Admin

Would be a great idea to see this week

Alberta #ScrimshawScoreboard
UCP: 47 (-16)
NDP: 40 (+16)
Every Seat, Ordered! (Tipping Point Margin: UCP +4.2%)