Eric Prindle
@ericprindle.bsky.social
Minneapolis dad; liker of all the good things and disliker of all the bullshit; he/him
For the sake of completeness, I did a map for Frey vs. AJ Awed. Keep in mind that this scenario has many more exhausted ballots. (On the other hand, most Awed ballots are exhausted in the other two scenarios.)
OK; I'll stop now.
OK; I'll stop now.
Frey Margin vs. Awed | Created with Datawrapper
Percentage of voters who ranked Jacob Frey over AJ Awed in the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral election
www.datawrapper.de
November 11, 2025 at 3:42 PM
For the sake of completeness, I did a map for Frey vs. AJ Awed. Keep in mind that this scenario has many more exhausted ballots. (On the other hand, most Awed ballots are exhausted in the other two scenarios.)
OK; I'll stop now.
OK; I'll stop now.
8-1 is an interesting case. Awed won that precinct in 2021. Fateh did notably worse there than in any surrounding precinct.
November 11, 2025 at 3:24 PM
8-1 is an interesting case. Awed won that precinct in 2021. Fateh did notably worse there than in any surrounding precinct.
Looking only at 6-3, 86-87 percent of Fateh votes would have been exhausted in "runoffs" involving Davis or Hampton. Others have offered valid reasons why some Fateh voters may have been indifferent as to the other candidates. Voters may also have assumed it was a two-person race.
November 11, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Looking only at 6-3, 86-87 percent of Fateh votes would have been exhausted in "runoffs" involving Davis or Hampton. Others have offered valid reasons why some Fateh voters may have been indifferent as to the other candidates. Voters may also have assumed it was a two-person race.
And here is an alternative Frey vs. Sheila Nezhad map. The differences here are much more subtle than we see in 2025 between Fateh and either Davis or Hampton.
Frey Margin vs. Nezhad | Created with Datawrapper
Percentage of voters who ranked Jacob Frey over Sheila Nezhad in the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral election
www.datawrapper.de
November 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
And here is an alternative Frey vs. Sheila Nezhad map. The differences here are much more subtle than we see in 2025 between Fateh and either Davis or Hampton.
With some additional help from @dbrauer.net, I did 2021 maps for comparison. Here's the final Jacob Frey vs. Kate Knuth map, some version of which many of us have seen before.
Frey Margin vs. Knuth | Created with Datawrapper
Jacob Frey's vote percentage margin over Kate Knuth in the final round of ranked-choice voting in the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral election
www.datawrapper.de
November 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
With some additional help from @dbrauer.net, I did 2021 maps for comparison. Here's the final Jacob Frey vs. Kate Knuth map, some version of which many of us have seen before.
Some of those Forney votes moved on to one of the other three, but I'm not going to try to trace those paths. The vast majority of Forney surpluses went to Frederick and Olsen.
On the other hand, votes that passed through McKelvey are attributed to their final home pre-Forney surplus distribution.
On the other hand, votes that passed through McKelvey are attributed to their final home pre-Forney surplus distribution.
November 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Some of those Forney votes moved on to one of the other three, but I'm not going to try to trace those paths. The vast majority of Forney surpluses went to Frederick and Olsen.
On the other hand, votes that passed through McKelvey are attributed to their final home pre-Forney surplus distribution.
On the other hand, votes that passed through McKelvey are attributed to their final home pre-Forney surplus distribution.
Revisiting this now that we have the Cast Vote Record. First-choice Schneider votes went:
30% to Wilson
21% to Olsen
14% to Frederick
10% to Forney
26% exhausted
First-choice Dowgwillo votes went:
28% to Forney
15% to Frederick
12% to Olsen
10% to Wilson
35% exhausted
30% to Wilson
21% to Olsen
14% to Frederick
10% to Forney
26% exhausted
First-choice Dowgwillo votes went:
28% to Forney
15% to Frederick
12% to Olsen
10% to Wilson
35% exhausted
November 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Revisiting this now that we have the Cast Vote Record. First-choice Schneider votes went:
30% to Wilson
21% to Olsen
14% to Frederick
10% to Forney
26% exhausted
First-choice Dowgwillo votes went:
28% to Forney
15% to Frederick
12% to Olsen
10% to Wilson
35% exhausted
30% to Wilson
21% to Olsen
14% to Frederick
10% to Forney
26% exhausted
First-choice Dowgwillo votes went:
28% to Forney
15% to Frederick
12% to Olsen
10% to Wilson
35% exhausted
I briefly looked by ward, not by precinct, and Fateh-onlies were definitely concentrated in Ward 6. Fateh-Freys were sprinkled throughout the city.
November 11, 2025 at 2:11 PM
I briefly looked by ward, not by precinct, and Fateh-onlies were definitely concentrated in Ward 6. Fateh-Freys were sprinkled throughout the city.
Keep in mind that some of the Fateh voters who didn't rank anyone else may have simply assumed it was a two-person race, which turned out to be accurate. Certainly that seems to have been the case with most Frey supporters.
November 11, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Keep in mind that some of the Fateh voters who didn't rank anyone else may have simply assumed it was a two-person race, which turned out to be accurate. Certainly that seems to have been the case with most Frey supporters.
In both cases, most of the other Fateh votes are exhausted. So Hampton ends up with a loss margin that is only slightly worse than Fateh's (with many more exhausted ballots), while Davis's loss margin is notably worse.
November 11, 2025 at 1:39 PM
In both cases, most of the other Fateh votes are exhausted. So Hampton ends up with a loss margin that is only slightly worse than Fateh's (with many more exhausted ballots), while Davis's loss margin is notably worse.
Yes; Hampton does relatively better than Davis in this scenario because Hampton inherits 77 percent of Davis votes and 61 percent of Fateh votes, whereas Davis inherits only 56 percent of Hampton votes as well as 65 percent of Fateh votes.
November 11, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Yes; Hampton does relatively better than Davis in this scenario because Hampton inherits 77 percent of Davis votes and 61 percent of Fateh votes, whereas Davis inherits only 56 percent of Hampton votes as well as 65 percent of Fateh votes.
Update: With some help from @dbrauer.net and @noraweber.bsky.social, I updated these to remove the non-Minneapolis precincts and fix some slightly misleading color-coding.
November 11, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Update: With some help from @dbrauer.net and @noraweber.bsky.social, I updated these to remove the non-Minneapolis precincts and fix some slightly misleading color-coding.
I did. I'll update it without the grayed-out remainder of CD5 later tonight.
OK; I figured out how to make some maps. Have patience with me; I'm self-taught. (If anyone knows how to get rid of the irrelevant sections of CD5, let me know.) Anyway, here's Frey vs. Fateh, also known as Kenwood vs. Cedar-Riverside.
November 11, 2025 at 12:21 AM
I did. I'll update it without the grayed-out remainder of CD5 later tonight.
Aha; there you go. Google sent me to the SOS, which only has CD maps. I'll update this at some point. Thanks!
November 10, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Aha; there you go. Google sent me to the SOS, which only has CD maps. I'll update this at some point. Thanks!
Edina must establish control over both sides of France immediately. For safety.
November 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Edina must establish control over both sides of France immediately. For safety.
And here's Frey vs. Hampton, which looks a lot like Frey vs. Davis, with some subtle differences.
Frey Margin vs. Hampton | Created with Datawrapper
Percentage of voters who ranked Jacob Frey over Jazz Hampton in the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election
www.datawrapper.de
November 10, 2025 at 9:39 PM
And here's Frey vs. Hampton, which looks a lot like Frey vs. Davis, with some subtle differences.
Here's Frey vs. Davis, also known as Kenwood vs. Powderhorn, with some big shifts in Wards 6 and 12 as noted in another thread.
Frey Margin vs. Davis | Created with Datawrapper
Percentage of voters who ranked Jacob Frey over DeWayne Davis in the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election
www.datawrapper.de
November 10, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Here's Frey vs. Davis, also known as Kenwood vs. Powderhorn, with some big shifts in Wards 6 and 12 as noted in another thread.
If I may offer an amendment to @wedge.live's previous statement: Run like you're trying to win both Ward 6 and Ward 12. And 1 and 5 too while you're at it. We have four years to figure out how to do that.
November 10, 2025 at 8:46 PM
If I may offer an amendment to @wedge.live's previous statement: Run like you're trying to win both Ward 6 and Ward 12. And 1 and 5 too while you're at it. We have four years to figure out how to do that.
It looks like Ward 12 is the one ward that either Davis or Hampton would have flipped. However, in both of those scenarios, Frey would have flipped Ward 6 by a lot more. Though 12 had much higher turnout.
November 10, 2025 at 8:46 PM
It looks like Ward 12 is the one ward that either Davis or Hampton would have flipped. However, in both of those scenarios, Frey would have flipped Ward 6 by a lot more. Though 12 had much higher turnout.
In other words, there is no number of Fateh-Davis-Hampton or Fateh-Hampton-Davis voters who could have rearranged the order of their votes in a manner that would have elected either of the other two candidates.
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
In other words, there is no number of Fateh-Davis-Hampton or Fateh-Hampton-Davis voters who could have rearranged the order of their votes in a manner that would have elected either of the other two candidates.
So, while matchups with Davis or Hampton both would have pulled Frey down below the very narrow majority he achieved against Fateh, neither of them was ranked on enough ballots where they would have defeated him.
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
So, while matchups with Davis or Hampton both would have pulled Frey down below the very narrow majority he achieved against Fateh, neither of them was ranked on enough ballots where they would have defeated him.
We now know that, as between Frey and DeWayne Davis, the breakdown would have been 49% to 40% to 11%, and between Frey and Jazz Hampton, the breakdown would have been 47% to 41% to 12%.
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
We now know that, as between Frey and DeWayne Davis, the breakdown would have been 49% to 40% to 11%, and between Frey and Jazz Hampton, the breakdown would have been 47% to 41% to 12%.
We already knew that, given a choice between Jacob Frey and Omar Fateh, 50% of voters chose Frey, 44% chose Fateh, and 6% stayed neutral by not ranking either of those candidates.
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
We already knew that, given a choice between Jacob Frey and Omar Fateh, 50% of voters chose Frey, 44% chose Fateh, and 6% stayed neutral by not ranking either of those candidates.
What it does tell us is, after an election in which almost 150,000 of our neighbors chose to evaluate the candidates and cast a vote with up to three rankings, what preferences did they actually express between those candidates? So …
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
What it does tell us is, after an election in which almost 150,000 of our neighbors chose to evaluate the candidates and cast a vote with up to three rankings, what preferences did they actually express between those candidates? So …