Starting the first lead author meeting of the @Ipcc #AR7 report in Paris! For the first time, WG1, WG2 and WG3 meet together in a lead author meeting. Great to see so much expertise and enthusiasm to kick off the next report.

Schon 34.5°C um 13:40 in Basel! Ohne Gewitter dürfte es ein sehr warmes Eröffnungsspiel der Schweiz an der #WEURO2025 werden.

Very good points! We had argued in several papers that dry springs can be considered a necessary but not sufficient condition for extreme summer heatwaves, particularly in central and eastern Europe.
The papers below further supported this asymmetric predictability with observational evidence.

Our children will face unprecedented exposure to weather extremes.

Our paper led by Luke Grant and @wimthiery.bsky.social published in @nature.com shows that the generation of our children and grandchildren will be exposed to a lot more weather extremes than ours.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

@wimthiery.bsky.social presenting our new paper "Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime
exposure to climate extremes" at #EGU25. Stay tuned for the paper led by Luke Grant, @innevanderkelen.bsky.social, @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social, @lukasgudmundsson.bsky.social published on 8 May.

The paper discusses ways forward in disentangling the reasons for potential mismatches between observed and simulated trends.
It provides a long catalogue of examples of success, discrepancies and unclear situations that require further attention.

It's tricky. Climate models and observations may disagree (1) by chance, due to unforced internal variability, (2) due to error in the model response, (3) due to inaccurate prescribed external forcings, (4) due to incomplete or uncertain observations or (5) due to inappropriate comparison methods.

Can climate models reproduce observed trends?

The answer can be challenging. Our new review paper in Science Advances led by Isla Simpson and Tiffany Shaw @drshaw.bsky.social discusses challenges and ways forward in confronting climate models and observations.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

#EGU25 Call for Abstracts

High-impact climate extremes: from physical understanding and storylines to impacts and solutions

With @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social, @erichfischer.bsky.social, @edhawkins.org, Henrique Goulart, Antonio Sanchez Benitez.

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

Sometimes Net-Zero CO2 seems centuries away, e.g. when on your AGU morning run on Capitol Hill you see tens of these lamps powered by an individual diesel generator each…

If you are at #AGU24 consider attending Monday morning’s heatwave sessions to see some of our recent work I will be presenting @agu.org

I realized this when preparing a lecture. I often use these papers as examples of how quickly return periods decrease for long events like the summer of 2003 change with warming.
According to their projection-based figure in Christidis et al., it will soon be a 1-in-2-year event.

I just realized that next week it will be 20 years since @stottpeter.bsky.social et al. published their first event attribution paper.
10 years later, they wrote that events that occurred twice a century at the time of publication were expected to occur twice a decade. Any update for 20 years later?

It was a bitterly cold morning, like today, starting with a frozen bike lock, that motivated our paper: We showed that today, and on every single day in the last 12 years, climate change is detectable from a global weather map, i.e. basically more red than blue. Free access paper at: rdcu.be/bZOLS

#EGU24 High-impact climate events
After a year of countless record-breaking extremes, we organize (again) an #EGU24 session on understanding and quantifying such high-impact climate events and developing storylines for them!

Submit your abstract here:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio...

Extreme thunderstorm wind gusts intensify with climate change

Fascinating new paper rdcu.be/dqahX by Andreas Prein showing how thunderstorm straight line winds intensify with climate change. Wonder whether this also played a role in the 2023 La-Chaux de Fonds event in Switzerland?

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat in Western Europe has intensified with 3.4°C per degree global warming. A rate much larger than nearly anywhere else. Very few models capture the observed trend. None of them the contribution from trends in atmospheric circulation.