Erdal Yalcin
@erdalyalcin.bsky.social
Professor of International Economics
TradePolicy, EU, MNEs, WTO, Sanctions, FTA
https://sites.google.com/view/erdalyalcin/home
TradePolicy, EU, MNEs, WTO, Sanctions, FTA
https://sites.google.com/view/erdalyalcin/home
Interview mit derspiegel zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in der #Türkei.
Die Türkei ist zuletzt aus dem Fokus geraten - zu Unrecht. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen bleiben brisant.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...
Die Türkei ist zuletzt aus dem Fokus geraten - zu Unrecht. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen bleiben brisant.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...
(S+) Türkei: »60 Prozent der Bevölkerung leiden unter den drastischen Preissteigerungen«
In der Türkei drohen nicht nur politische Spannungen zu eskalieren. Auch wirtschaftlich erlebt das Land schwierige Zeiten. Ökonom Erdal Yalçin erklärt, warum das zum Problem werden kann, für die Mensc...
www.spiegel.de
April 11, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Interview mit derspiegel zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in der #Türkei.
Die Türkei ist zuletzt aus dem Fokus geraten - zu Unrecht. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen bleiben brisant.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...
Die Türkei ist zuletzt aus dem Fokus geraten - zu Unrecht. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen bleiben brisant.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...
What’s next for #Türkiye?
Uncertainty is back, driving investors away. The currency weakens further, #inflation resurges. With global interest rates rising, Türkiye finds itself back in #crisis mode.
Uncertainty is back, driving investors away. The currency weakens further, #inflation resurges. With global interest rates rising, Türkiye finds itself back in #crisis mode.
March 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
What’s next for #Türkiye?
Uncertainty is back, driving investors away. The currency weakens further, #inflation resurges. With global interest rates rising, Türkiye finds itself back in #crisis mode.
Uncertainty is back, driving investors away. The currency weakens further, #inflation resurges. With global interest rates rising, Türkiye finds itself back in #crisis mode.
#Budapest #Memorandum (1994) gave #Ukraine security assurances in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. Russia violated it by annexing Crimea (2014) & invading (2022). No enforcement mechanism, as it is a political "promise". A lesson in the limits of "assurances."
March 3, 2025 at 5:35 AM
#Budapest #Memorandum (1994) gave #Ukraine security assurances in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. Russia violated it by annexing Crimea (2014) & invading (2022). No enforcement mechanism, as it is a political "promise". A lesson in the limits of "assurances."
When politicians base international relations on deals, academics call it #transactional #policy. The problem is that this approach fails in deeply interconnected and complex policy areas.
Purely deal-based international relations do not work in the long run.
Purely deal-based international relations do not work in the long run.
March 1, 2025 at 8:46 PM
When politicians base international relations on deals, academics call it #transactional #policy. The problem is that this approach fails in deeply interconnected and complex policy areas.
Purely deal-based international relations do not work in the long run.
Purely deal-based international relations do not work in the long run.
Global #tariffs are on the rise. Politicians often downplay their impact, citing small #GDP effects. But a 0.3 pp drop, e.g., is still significant. More crucially, tariffs can massively reshape industry #structures - far beyond what GDP numbers reveal.
Extreme case: chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Extreme case: chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
February 27, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Global #tariffs are on the rise. Politicians often downplay their impact, citing small #GDP effects. But a 0.3 pp drop, e.g., is still significant. More crucially, tariffs can massively reshape industry #structures - far beyond what GDP numbers reveal.
Extreme case: chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Extreme case: chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Why will #reciprocal #US #tariffs increase prices in the US?
A thread:
1/ Tariffs may sound like a way to protect domestic industries, but they also increase costs for businesses and consumers. Here's why.
👇
A thread:
1/ Tariffs may sound like a way to protect domestic industries, but they also increase costs for businesses and consumers. Here's why.
👇
February 23, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Why will #reciprocal #US #tariffs increase prices in the US?
A thread:
1/ Tariffs may sound like a way to protect domestic industries, but they also increase costs for businesses and consumers. Here's why.
👇
A thread:
1/ Tariffs may sound like a way to protect domestic industries, but they also increase costs for businesses and consumers. Here's why.
👇
Sollen wir in #Deutschland nuklear aufrüsten?
#Grundvoraussetzung wäre, dass wir #Nuklearanlagen haben, die entsprechende Ressourcen produzieren.
Erst Frage A lösen, dann Frage B.
Frage A: Sollen wir #Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland bauen?
Debatte ist bisher auf Strom reduziert.
#Grundvoraussetzung wäre, dass wir #Nuklearanlagen haben, die entsprechende Ressourcen produzieren.
Erst Frage A lösen, dann Frage B.
Frage A: Sollen wir #Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland bauen?
Debatte ist bisher auf Strom reduziert.
February 22, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Sollen wir in #Deutschland nuklear aufrüsten?
#Grundvoraussetzung wäre, dass wir #Nuklearanlagen haben, die entsprechende Ressourcen produzieren.
Erst Frage A lösen, dann Frage B.
Frage A: Sollen wir #Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland bauen?
Debatte ist bisher auf Strom reduziert.
#Grundvoraussetzung wäre, dass wir #Nuklearanlagen haben, die entsprechende Ressourcen produzieren.
Erst Frage A lösen, dann Frage B.
Frage A: Sollen wir #Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland bauen?
Debatte ist bisher auf Strom reduziert.
If someone can dismiss public officials at their own #discretion based on a presidential decision, you are not in a #democracy. In democracies, this is for #emergencies like #war. In totalitarian regimes, it is the norm.
February 19, 2025 at 7:27 AM
If someone can dismiss public officials at their own #discretion based on a presidential decision, you are not in a #democracy. In democracies, this is for #emergencies like #war. In totalitarian regimes, it is the norm.
Changing a running system is hard, especially in public institutions.
#Argentina and now the #US are undergoing a historical #experiment - dismantling public structures due to excessive #bureaucracy and #inefficiency.
Long-term effects? #Uncertain.
#Argentina and now the #US are undergoing a historical #experiment - dismantling public structures due to excessive #bureaucracy and #inefficiency.
Long-term effects? #Uncertain.
February 18, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Changing a running system is hard, especially in public institutions.
#Argentina and now the #US are undergoing a historical #experiment - dismantling public structures due to excessive #bureaucracy and #inefficiency.
Long-term effects? #Uncertain.
#Argentina and now the #US are undergoing a historical #experiment - dismantling public structures due to excessive #bureaucracy and #inefficiency.
Long-term effects? #Uncertain.
A major problem in #economics: the lack of research on the #duration of economic #adjustments. Policies are compared by outcomes, but how long adjustments take remains unclear - yet it is is critical for execution. #Time matters!
February 18, 2025 at 7:57 AM
A major problem in #economics: the lack of research on the #duration of economic #adjustments. Policies are compared by outcomes, but how long adjustments take remains unclear - yet it is is critical for execution. #Time matters!
How can the #EU gain leverage in international business amid a #protectionist #US policy? Prioritizing large markets like #SouthAmerica & securing deep trade #agreements, including #Canada, is essential. A huge opportunity for the EU!
February 18, 2025 at 7:49 AM
How can the #EU gain leverage in international business amid a #protectionist #US policy? Prioritizing large markets like #SouthAmerica & securing deep trade #agreements, including #Canada, is essential. A huge opportunity for the EU!
Heute hat mich eine #Schülerin angeschrieben, und mich um meine Meinung zur #Schuldenbremse gebeten.
Ich habe meine Antwort hier zusammengefasst:
www.linkedin.com/posts/erdal-...
Ich habe meine Antwort hier zusammengefasst:
www.linkedin.com/posts/erdal-...
Erdal Yalçin on LinkedIn: #schuldenbremse #schuldenbremse #deutschland
#Schuldenbremse: Beibehalten oder anpassen?
Heute hat mich eine Schülerin angeschrieben, mit der Bitte, Fragen zur #Schuldenbremse in #Deutschland zu…
www.linkedin.com
February 17, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Heute hat mich eine #Schülerin angeschrieben, und mich um meine Meinung zur #Schuldenbremse gebeten.
Ich habe meine Antwort hier zusammengefasst:
www.linkedin.com/posts/erdal-...
Ich habe meine Antwort hier zusammengefasst:
www.linkedin.com/posts/erdal-...
We have estimated the impact of #comprehensive #sanctions based on the last 70 years. Result: Trade can drop by 80% if sanctions are imposed on all goods.
The #equivalent #tariff that would lead to a similar drop?
➡️30% on all goods.
Just to give you an idea of the numbers we are talking about.
The #equivalent #tariff that would lead to a similar drop?
➡️30% on all goods.
Just to give you an idea of the numbers we are talking about.
February 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
We have estimated the impact of #comprehensive #sanctions based on the last 70 years. Result: Trade can drop by 80% if sanctions are imposed on all goods.
The #equivalent #tariff that would lead to a similar drop?
➡️30% on all goods.
Just to give you an idea of the numbers we are talking about.
The #equivalent #tariff that would lead to a similar drop?
➡️30% on all goods.
Just to give you an idea of the numbers we are talking about.
Whom do you trust in an increasingly #uncertain world?
Uncertainty means having no #clue about what comes next. One answer: those who have proven they possess sharp and fast #intuition. Look around - sense the right people.🌬
Uncertainty means having no #clue about what comes next. One answer: those who have proven they possess sharp and fast #intuition. Look around - sense the right people.🌬
February 10, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Whom do you trust in an increasingly #uncertain world?
Uncertainty means having no #clue about what comes next. One answer: those who have proven they possess sharp and fast #intuition. Look around - sense the right people.🌬
Uncertainty means having no #clue about what comes next. One answer: those who have proven they possess sharp and fast #intuition. Look around - sense the right people.🌬
Where will #inflation be at the end of 2025? Signs point to a rising global price index. Check inflation #expectations across countries.
History will show: one reason for this rebound in inflation is partly inexperienced #economists failing to account for political uncertainty.
History will show: one reason for this rebound in inflation is partly inexperienced #economists failing to account for political uncertainty.
February 10, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Where will #inflation be at the end of 2025? Signs point to a rising global price index. Check inflation #expectations across countries.
History will show: one reason for this rebound in inflation is partly inexperienced #economists failing to account for political uncertainty.
History will show: one reason for this rebound in inflation is partly inexperienced #economists failing to account for political uncertainty.
#Industrial #policy is complex, but #Germany’s #AI ambitions boil down to one thing: energy prices. At current levels, Germany is out. Any other story is political prosa.
Check the #electricity needs of AI.
Check the #electricity needs of AI.
February 10, 2025 at 7:22 AM
#Industrial #policy is complex, but #Germany’s #AI ambitions boil down to one thing: energy prices. At current levels, Germany is out. Any other story is political prosa.
Check the #electricity needs of AI.
Check the #electricity needs of AI.
A strong #economy needs strong public institutions. People like @elonmusk think a state can be run like a private company-huge misconception. The result? Rising inequality, social unrest, and eventually, a political correction. The long-term effects will be painful.
February 8, 2025 at 11:12 AM
A strong #economy needs strong public institutions. People like @elonmusk think a state can be run like a private company-huge misconception. The result? Rising inequality, social unrest, and eventually, a political correction. The long-term effects will be painful.
Reposted by Erdal Yalcin
Welthandel unter Druck: Was tun gegen Protektionismus und Handelskriege? mit Beiträgen von Martin T. Braml, @gfelbermayr.bsky.social, Harold James, @erdalyalcin.bsky.social 👉 www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
Welthandel unter Druck: Was tun gegen Protektionismus und Handelskriege?
Der Wirtschaftsdienst publiziert jeden Monat Beiträge von namhaften Autoren aus Wissenschaft, Politik und Praxis zu aktuellen Themen der Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik in Deutschland und der EU.
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu
February 7, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Welthandel unter Druck: Was tun gegen Protektionismus und Handelskriege? mit Beiträgen von Martin T. Braml, @gfelbermayr.bsky.social, Harold James, @erdalyalcin.bsky.social 👉 www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...