Just got this from my mom. My work here is done.

With all this new data from remote sensing, new space data analysis companies are also starting.

And new companies are also seizing the opportunities presented by new sensing modalities:

It also helps that camera tech is improving for these remote sensing providers (thanks to government R&D!)

It’s not just launch that’s different: take a look at how many remote sensing companies have popped up since 2010. Helps that these guys have cheaper launch options:

These companies are making faster and faster progress towards stable launch capabilities:

The good news is that there has been a raft of new launch companies founded since the 2000s.

Today, the players have changed dramatically. SpaceX can be credited for revolutionizing launch and the commercial space industry, but SpaceX’s dominance raises questions about resiliency too.

Also, the space launch industry in Reagan’s time was dominated by the defense industrial base:

Zooming out to include modern times, we’ve come a long way…

Launch (thanks largely to commercial launches) is dramatically different. Reagan announced SDI in 1983, three years later the Challenger exploded before the eyes of Americans and put a chill on launches for years following.

AI could both harm and help in balancing efficiency with thorough analysis. While AI often drives efficiency, it could also be configured to force consideration of alternative explanations, enhancing the effectiveness of intelligence analysis. This balance is fundamentally a human choice.

*Warning* *Warning*

Data management issues in AI systems could mirror those in traditional intelligence, including challenges like ensuring the relevancy and accuracy of data, adequate sensor deployment, and appropriate metadata and ontologies for decision-making.

There is evidence that AI can change a person’s mind, but if there's a prevailing belief that certain scenarios are unlikely, AI might not be able to overcome that bias. arxiv.org/pdf/2403.14380

While AI doesn't directly address the decline in traditional surveillance methods like HUMINT, it could potentially lower the costs and increase the efficiency of OSINT and automated analysis of communications.

AI could potentially enhance the critical nature of the intelligence work process, especially if implemented as a red team to identify and challenge assumptions (as seen in IARPA’s project REASON) www.iarpa.gov/research-pro...

AI could exacerbate the perception that the enemy is transparent when it really is not. Especially problematic when relying on large datasets that require context and understanding.