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eliontheweb.bsky.social
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@eliontheweb.bsky.social
90 followers 170 following 95 posts
forgive me lord for I have posted
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eliontheweb.bsky.social
Another W for Catholicism
November 14, 2025 at 3:12 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
The new party mascot must be a bird
November 5, 2025 at 8:40 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
I guess I’m asking because abstract issue polling seems to have some value in my mind - namely because of its separation from individuals or political parties.
November 5, 2025 at 12:05 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
So would you say issue polling is inaccurate or insufficient because of that gap between a abstract policy proposal and the actual implementation of said policy?

Or maybe also that political propagandists get involved in that gap to push for their preferred outcomes?
November 5, 2025 at 12:02 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
Why do you think issue polling is bad? Genuine question.
November 4, 2025 at 11:41 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
Charitably, their problem with issue polling is its disconnection from party politics - which leads to this method that bakes in partisan framing.

My cynical reading is that this method allows for the creation of the pretty charts that tell dem candidates they don’t actually have to change policy
November 4, 2025 at 9:14 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
I urge you to dig deeper into how WelcomePAC’s polling was conducted. They are expressly against issue polling and create their own style of question that connects each issue with the Democrats or Republican, while adopting republican framing in the “arguments”
Our Approach to Measurin... For this report, we performed a large-scale issue polling experiment using the above approach. What does this approach look like in practice? To illustrate it, we can use the example of increasing the refugee cap from 15,000 a year, to 125,000 a year, a real-world policy enacted by the Biden administration in October of 2021. Respondents were shown the following description: • Policy description: Some Democrats in Congress have proposed a bill that would increase the number of refugees allowed to come to America. Under this bill, the number of refugees allowed to come to America each year would be increased from 15,000 a year to 125,000 a year. Respondents were then randomly selected to be shown one of two Democratic arguments as well as one of two Republican arguments. The Democratic argument options were: • Democratic Argument 1: Democrats support this policy because they say that turning away people fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries is wrong. • Democratic Argument 2: Democrats support this policy because they say refugees are hardworking and admitting more will make our country stronger by creating jobs and growing our economy. While the Republican argument options were: • Republican Argument 1: Republicans oppose this policy because they say we can't properly vet so many refugees and we should focus on helping American citizens first. • Republican Argument 2: Republicans oppose this policy because they say that refugees are more likely to commit crimes than Americans are and this will make our communities more safe. Respondents were then asked "Which party do you agree with more?" Results are aggregated across all argument matchups to create an overall support number. This support number is the "two-way" support for the policy, meaning it strips out undecided voters and looks only at the proportion of support among voters who expressed an opinion. In the case of increasing the refugee cap, the two-way support number was 34%, meaning that 34% of respondents who expressed a view on the issue said they agreed more with the randomly-selected Democratic argument they saw, while 66% of respondents of those who expressed a position said they agreed more with the randomly-selected Republican argument they saw. In the tables that follow in Part 5, we express support as "net support," which is the difference between the two-way support for the position of the party proposing the policy and the two-way support for the position of the party opposing the policy. For this refugee policy, the net support is -32% (34% minus 66% is equal to -32%). For many of the policies we polled, the findings more closely matched ballot initiative results. For example, rather than the 85% support for universal background checks discussed in the previous section, we found that 55% of voters agree more with Democrats about the policy - far closer to the Maine and Nevada results. And in contrast to the polling mentioned previously finding majorities of Americans supporting affirmative action in college admissions, we found restoring colleges' ability to use affirmative action to be supported by 37% of voters - much more consistent with its loss in a California referendum. Overall, our polling found that, for a substantial number of progressive policies, less than half of voters agree with Democrats about the policy - and that relatively few Democratic policies reach heights of 60+% support. Overall, in our sample of 105 Democratic policies we polled, 57 were supported by a majority of voters, while 48 were oppo…
November 4, 2025 at 9:08 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
The left has to be better at sniffing these guys out. Make them get specific on their beliefs beyond being anti establishment and aesthetically working class
November 3, 2025 at 6:48 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
Nyt supporting him is unsurprising. Anyways read @moiradonegan.bsky.social ‘s recent guardian piece on platner instead
October 31, 2025 at 7:10 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
No no you don’t get it - they don’t believe in issue polling

It’s unpopular by they’re new polling methodology which explicitly ties every issue to either the republican or Democratic Party

Because that’s much more realistic
October 28, 2025 at 2:36 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
Good for you. It’s just ragebait filtered through consultant brain.
October 28, 2025 at 2:32 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
This is their polling methodology btw

I wonder why when they explicitly tied the issues to the incredibly unpopular Democratic Party, the democratic issues were unpopular
For this report, we performed a large-scale issue polling experiment using the above approach. What does this approach look like in practice? To illustrate it, we can use the example of increasing the refugee cap from 15,000 a year, to 125,000 a year, a real-world policy enacted by the Biden administration in October of 2021. Respondents were shown the following description: • Policy description: Some Democrats in Congress have proposed a bill that would increase the number of refugees allowed to come to America. Under this bill, the number of refugees allowed to come to America each year would be increased from 15,000 a year to 125,000 a year. Respondents were then randomly selected to be shown one of two Democratic arguments as well as one of two Republican arguments. The Democratic argument options were: • Democratic Argument 1: Democrats support this policy because they say that turning away people fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries is wrong. • Democratic Argument 2: Democrats support this policy because they say refugees are hardworking and admitting more will make our country stronger by creating jobs and growing our economy. While the Republican argument options were: • Republican Argument 1: Republicans oppose this policy because they say we can't properly vet so many refugees and we should focus on helping American citizens first. • Republican Argument 2: Republicans oppose this policy because they say that refugees are more likely to commit crimes than Americans are and this will make our communities less safe. Respondents were then asked "Which party do you amnas rrith mars)" Daculte ana aemnaratad sansco oll * Our Approach to Measurin... Respondents were then asked "Which party do you agree with more?" Results are aggregated across all argument matchups to create an overall support number. This support number is the "two-way" support for the policy, meaning it strips out undecided voters and looks only at the proportion of support among voters who expressed an opinion. In the case of increasing the refugee cap, the two-way support number was 34%, meaning that 34% of respondents who expressed a view on the issue said they agreed more with the randomly-selected Democratic argument they saw, while 66% of respondents of those who expressed a position said they agreed more with the randomly-selected Republican argument they saw. In the tables that follow in Part 5, we express support as "net support," which is the difference between the two-way support for the position of the party proposing the policy and the two-way support for the position of the party opposing the policy. For this refugee policy, the net support is -32% (34% minus 66% is equal to -32%). For many of the policies we polled, the findings more closely matched ballot initiative results. For example, rather than the 85% support for universal background checks discussed in the previous section, we found that 55% of voters agree more with Democrats about the policy - far closer to the Maine and Nevada results. And in contrast to the polling mentioned previously finding majorities of Americans supporting affirmative action in college admissions, we found restoring colleges' ability to use affirmative action to be supported by 37% of voters - much more consistent with its loss in a California referendum. Overall, our polling found that, for a substantial number of progressive policies, less than half of voters agree with Democrats about the policy - and that relatively few Democratic policies reach heights of 60+% support. Overall, in our sample of 105 Democratic policies we polled, 57 were supported by a majority…
October 28, 2025 at 2:26 AM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
The directionality only flows one way:

Voters think this -> let’s run on that

The party doesn’t seem to think it can change what voters think or believe. Which would be:

We believe this -> let’s convince voters

It makes them unprincipled on the formal level.
October 27, 2025 at 10:18 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
The party seems to fundamentally misunderstand how beliefs and opinions are formed. They do not even think to include how their messaging (or lack thereof) on certain issues leads to changes in opinion.

Or most importantly, how right wing propaganda has effected political opinions
October 27, 2025 at 9:05 PM
eliontheweb.bsky.social
Any publication in particular?
October 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM