Michael McDonald
@electproject.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections
Pretty clear relationship between statewide VEP turnout rates and the shift in the Democratic margin of victory compared with 2024. NJ and VA experienced about half the average special election margin shift of 14.4 points.
November 8, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Pretty clear relationship between statewide VEP turnout rates and the shift in the Democratic margin of victory compared with 2024. NJ and VA experienced about half the average special election margin shift of 14.4 points.
For my BlueSky peeps, here are the turnout rates (I cross-post my Substack posts on Xitter, but don't post goodies like this)
November 7, 2025 at 4:25 PM
For my BlueSky peeps, here are the turnout rates (I cross-post my Substack posts on Xitter, but don't post goodies like this)
Thanksgiving as been shrinkflated to Angstgiving
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Thank you for your attention to this matter
November 6, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Thanksgiving as been shrinkflated to Angstgiving
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Not all pollsters...just the crappy high frequency Republican troll polls
November 6, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Not all pollsters...just the crappy high frequency Republican troll polls
This was a good take
November 5, 2025 at 2:59 PM
This was a good take
Pretty clear pattern that 2025 turnout in the Trumpiest Virginia localities lagged the most behind their 2024 turnout
November 5, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Pretty clear pattern that 2025 turnout in the Trumpiest Virginia localities lagged the most behind their 2024 turnout
Related, I won't be surprised if every one of these polls underestimated Jones
November 5, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Related, I won't be surprised if every one of these polls underestimated Jones
Connecticut reported a slight increased gap between registered Democrats and Republicans voting early since I last ran their numbers as of Tuesday of last week (+8.0 points then, +8.2 points now). This increase is almost entirely due to fewer unaffiliated voting early
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Connecticut reported a slight increased gap between registered Democrats and Republicans voting early since I last ran their numbers as of Tuesday of last week (+8.0 points then, +8.2 points now). This increase is almost entirely due to fewer unaffiliated voting early
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
November 3, 2025 at 12:50 PM
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
New Jersey early vote update as of Friday, with a same-day comparison to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
November 2, 2025 at 6:06 PM
New Jersey early vote update as of Friday, with a same-day comparison to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
I'd caution that we might not have enough data yet. Northern Virginia and other large Democratic counties didn't open satellite in-person early voting locations beyond their election office until this week. In 2024, there was a surge in early voting once these polling places were open
October 25, 2025 at 3:17 PM
I'd caution that we might not have enough data yet. Northern Virginia and other large Democratic counties didn't open satellite in-person early voting locations beyond their election office until this week. In 2024, there was a surge in early voting once these polling places were open
In 2025 in Virginia, L2's estimated Republicans have a small in-person early voting advantage. The overall difference is that Democrats are voting by mail by a large margin
October 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
In 2025 in Virginia, L2's estimated Republicans have a small in-person early voting advantage. The overall difference is that Democrats are voting by mail by a large margin
This early voting chart by estimated party by L2 via the Virginia Public Access project shows Democrats outpacing Republicans in total early voting by 80K or 10 percentage points. We don't have a good baseline comparison, but this appears consistent with polling showing Democratic candidates leading
October 25, 2025 at 3:07 PM
This early voting chart by estimated party by L2 via the Virginia Public Access project shows Democrats outpacing Republicans in total early voting by 80K or 10 percentage points. We don't have a good baseline comparison, but this appears consistent with polling showing Democratic candidates leading
NYT updated their headline, but this is still buried in the text
"....thousands of people across the country protested a president they accused of using his power like a king."
So pressure helped some, but still a disgrace of factual reporting
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...
"....thousands of people across the country protested a president they accused of using his power like a king."
So pressure helped some, but still a disgrace of factual reporting
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...
October 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
NYT updated their headline, but this is still buried in the text
"....thousands of people across the country protested a president they accused of using his power like a king."
So pressure helped some, but still a disgrace of factual reporting
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...
"....thousands of people across the country protested a president they accused of using his power like a king."
So pressure helped some, but still a disgrace of factual reporting
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...
Speaker Johnson is like
October 15, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Speaker Johnson is like
At what point will our media ask about Trump’s obvious mental decline? He’s so far gone that he does not remember he was president in January 6, 2021
October 12, 2025 at 1:55 PM
At what point will our media ask about Trump’s obvious mental decline? He’s so far gone that he does not remember he was president in January 6, 2021
JD Vance posted on X this picture of him having dinner with Trump and there is again covered-up bruising on Trump's hand. Trump hasn't been seen in public since Tuesday (this picture doesn't count as being in public)
October 4, 2025 at 2:29 PM
JD Vance posted on X this picture of him having dinner with Trump and there is again covered-up bruising on Trump's hand. Trump hasn't been seen in public since Tuesday (this picture doesn't count as being in public)
A man crashed his car into the barricades around LA city hall. A sign in his car window says "I need UR help D Trump" abc7.com/post/la-city...
October 4, 2025 at 12:05 AM
A man crashed his car into the barricades around LA city hall. A sign in his car window says "I need UR help D Trump" abc7.com/post/la-city...
Pope Leo says pro-life people are hypocrites abc7news.com/post/pope-le...
October 1, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Pope Leo says pro-life people are hypocrites abc7news.com/post/pope-le...
Since Sam turned off replies I am unable to respond to his thread after I called him out, I'll do it here. I'm adding a screenshot since he's liable to delete his posts as he's already done with one where he replied and said "I didn't mean you"
September 29, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Since Sam turned off replies I am unable to respond to his thread after I called him out, I'll do it here. I'm adding a screenshot since he's liable to delete his posts as he's already done with one where he replied and said "I didn't mean you"
Here's how Collaborator News Network is covering Trump's declaration
September 27, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Here's how Collaborator News Network is covering Trump's declaration
Billionaires are like
September 20, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Billionaires are like
US adults disapprove of Disney taking Kimmel off the air 50%-35%, with 42% strongly disapproving. 84% provided an opinion, which is a remarkable amount of attention to the situation (there's rounding lurking in the poll percentages)
September 19, 2025 at 12:40 PM
US adults disapprove of Disney taking Kimmel off the air 50%-35%, with 42% strongly disapproving. 84% provided an opinion, which is a remarkable amount of attention to the situation (there's rounding lurking in the poll percentages)
Voters love Trump so much that he will cancel the 2026 elections
September 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Voters love Trump so much that he will cancel the 2026 elections
butt they want to hang out with you
September 5, 2025 at 1:44 AM
butt they want to hang out with you