Electoral Renewal Canada
@electoralrenewalca.bsky.social
📊 Discussing elections in Canada
🗳️ Advocating for Proportional Representation
📷 @ElectoralRenewalCA on Instagram
🗳️ Advocating for Proportional Representation
📷 @ElectoralRenewalCA on Instagram
When it comes to government stability, a lot of that has more to with individual countries than any given election system.
However, while the UK and Canada are plagued with frequent early elections, many countries that use PR system have the most consistent schedules, on average. (2/2)
However, while the UK and Canada are plagued with frequent early elections, many countries that use PR system have the most consistent schedules, on average. (2/2)
May 10, 2025 at 2:53 AM
When it comes to government stability, a lot of that has more to with individual countries than any given election system.
However, while the UK and Canada are plagued with frequent early elections, many countries that use PR system have the most consistent schedules, on average. (2/2)
However, while the UK and Canada are plagued with frequent early elections, many countries that use PR system have the most consistent schedules, on average. (2/2)
Here are the crosstabs from yesterday's poll from Research Co.
But don't just take one poll for granted, over the last two decades, there have been many polls conducted on proportional representation in Canada. Most show overwhelming support for its implementation.
See here: www.fairvote.ca/polls/
But don't just take one poll for granted, over the last two decades, there have been many polls conducted on proportional representation in Canada. Most show overwhelming support for its implementation.
See here: www.fairvote.ca/polls/
May 9, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Here are the crosstabs from yesterday's poll from Research Co.
But don't just take one poll for granted, over the last two decades, there have been many polls conducted on proportional representation in Canada. Most show overwhelming support for its implementation.
See here: www.fairvote.ca/polls/
But don't just take one poll for granted, over the last two decades, there have been many polls conducted on proportional representation in Canada. Most show overwhelming support for its implementation.
See here: www.fairvote.ca/polls/
I didn't find super strong evidence that one system always led to more stable outcomes.
However, countries that used winner-take-all systems struggled more.
A lot seems to be down to a country's specific circumstances, but I think Canada's federal system lends better to proportional elections.
However, countries that used winner-take-all systems struggled more.
A lot seems to be down to a country's specific circumstances, but I think Canada's federal system lends better to proportional elections.
May 6, 2025 at 2:37 AM
I didn't find super strong evidence that one system always led to more stable outcomes.
However, countries that used winner-take-all systems struggled more.
A lot seems to be down to a country's specific circumstances, but I think Canada's federal system lends better to proportional elections.
However, countries that used winner-take-all systems struggled more.
A lot seems to be down to a country's specific circumstances, but I think Canada's federal system lends better to proportional elections.
One of the election night narratives was that expected Liberal gains in Alberta did not materialize.
While the Liberals stayed at 2 MPs, their vote share massively increased.
In 2021, Liberals received 300k votes in Alberta (15%).
This time, they got 630k (28%). They doubled it.
While the Liberals stayed at 2 MPs, their vote share massively increased.
In 2021, Liberals received 300k votes in Alberta (15%).
This time, they got 630k (28%). They doubled it.
May 1, 2025 at 12:00 AM
One of the election night narratives was that expected Liberal gains in Alberta did not materialize.
While the Liberals stayed at 2 MPs, their vote share massively increased.
In 2021, Liberals received 300k votes in Alberta (15%).
This time, they got 630k (28%). They doubled it.
While the Liberals stayed at 2 MPs, their vote share massively increased.
In 2021, Liberals received 300k votes in Alberta (15%).
This time, they got 630k (28%). They doubled it.
Even in a riding like Courtenay—Alberni, the only Vancouver Island riding to be held by the NDP, we see the same. The NDP and Greens decreased, while the Liberals and Conservatives rose.
People either believed they were "strategically" voting for the Liberals, or they were not strategically voting.
People either believed they were "strategically" voting for the Liberals, or they were not strategically voting.
April 29, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Even in a riding like Courtenay—Alberni, the only Vancouver Island riding to be held by the NDP, we see the same. The NDP and Greens decreased, while the Liberals and Conservatives rose.
People either believed they were "strategically" voting for the Liberals, or they were not strategically voting.
People either believed they were "strategically" voting for the Liberals, or they were not strategically voting.
Lots of previous NDP and Green voters chose to support the Liberals to avoid Poilievre, but it seems to me that very few considered which riding in which they resided.
It seems like, even in ridings which were held by the Greens and New Democrats, more people chose to vote for the Liberals.
It seems like, even in ridings which were held by the Greens and New Democrats, more people chose to vote for the Liberals.
April 29, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Lots of previous NDP and Green voters chose to support the Liberals to avoid Poilievre, but it seems to me that very few considered which riding in which they resided.
It seems like, even in ridings which were held by the Greens and New Democrats, more people chose to vote for the Liberals.
It seems like, even in ridings which were held by the Greens and New Democrats, more people chose to vote for the Liberals.
Nobody needs to defend Trudeau's handling of electoral reform- he's not running for office.
The report was unambiguous:
- The government should design a proportional election system.
- The overwhelming share of pro-reform testimony favoured proportional representation.
The report was unambiguous:
- The government should design a proportional election system.
- The overwhelming share of pro-reform testimony favoured proportional representation.
April 23, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Nobody needs to defend Trudeau's handling of electoral reform- he's not running for office.
The report was unambiguous:
- The government should design a proportional election system.
- The overwhelming share of pro-reform testimony favoured proportional representation.
The report was unambiguous:
- The government should design a proportional election system.
- The overwhelming share of pro-reform testimony favoured proportional representation.
Take Australia. Labor was carried to their majority largely on run-off votes from Green voters.
Run-off avoided a vote split, but I'd contend that a lot of those Green voters would have rather elected Green MPs, who would then support a Labor gov.
Australia has a really bad two-party system.
Run-off avoided a vote split, but I'd contend that a lot of those Green voters would have rather elected Green MPs, who would then support a Labor gov.
Australia has a really bad two-party system.
April 19, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Take Australia. Labor was carried to their majority largely on run-off votes from Green voters.
Run-off avoided a vote split, but I'd contend that a lot of those Green voters would have rather elected Green MPs, who would then support a Labor gov.
Australia has a really bad two-party system.
Run-off avoided a vote split, but I'd contend that a lot of those Green voters would have rather elected Green MPs, who would then support a Labor gov.
Australia has a really bad two-party system.
Strategic voting moves us towards American-style two-party politics.
Mathematically, voting strategically will broadly benefit larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. This is called "Duverger's Law."
Over many election cycles, it can cause third parties to become completely inviable.
Mathematically, voting strategically will broadly benefit larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. This is called "Duverger's Law."
Over many election cycles, it can cause third parties to become completely inviable.
April 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Strategic voting moves us towards American-style two-party politics.
Mathematically, voting strategically will broadly benefit larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. This is called "Duverger's Law."
Over many election cycles, it can cause third parties to become completely inviable.
Mathematically, voting strategically will broadly benefit larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. This is called "Duverger's Law."
Over many election cycles, it can cause third parties to become completely inviable.
Over the last couple years, we have seen the emergence of "Strategic Voting" tools, such as @smartvoting.ca and VoteWell.
These are tools to guide voters to the best "strategic" vote to defeat a conservative in their district.
Let's talk about what this means for our democracy.
These are tools to guide voters to the best "strategic" vote to defeat a conservative in their district.
Let's talk about what this means for our democracy.
April 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Over the last couple years, we have seen the emergence of "Strategic Voting" tools, such as @smartvoting.ca and VoteWell.
These are tools to guide voters to the best "strategic" vote to defeat a conservative in their district.
Let's talk about what this means for our democracy.
These are tools to guide voters to the best "strategic" vote to defeat a conservative in their district.
Let's talk about what this means for our democracy.
And yes, before people say it, we DO spend a lot of time engaging with the issue directly. @fairvote.ca does fantastic work.
Unfortunately, it's one of these situations. Media doesn't want boring, good policy. They want a spectacle.
Unfortunately, it's one of these situations. Media doesn't want boring, good policy. They want a spectacle.
April 18, 2025 at 6:12 PM
And yes, before people say it, we DO spend a lot of time engaging with the issue directly. @fairvote.ca does fantastic work.
Unfortunately, it's one of these situations. Media doesn't want boring, good policy. They want a spectacle.
Unfortunately, it's one of these situations. Media doesn't want boring, good policy. They want a spectacle.
Instant-Run off Voting is a winner-take-all system that is similar to First-Past-the-Post.
You can see in Australia that, just like FPTP, Instant Run-Off creates one-party majority governments at the expense of third party voters.
Proportional Single Transferable Vote is a better alternative.
You can see in Australia that, just like FPTP, Instant Run-Off creates one-party majority governments at the expense of third party voters.
Proportional Single Transferable Vote is a better alternative.
April 11, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Instant-Run off Voting is a winner-take-all system that is similar to First-Past-the-Post.
You can see in Australia that, just like FPTP, Instant Run-Off creates one-party majority governments at the expense of third party voters.
Proportional Single Transferable Vote is a better alternative.
You can see in Australia that, just like FPTP, Instant Run-Off creates one-party majority governments at the expense of third party voters.
Proportional Single Transferable Vote is a better alternative.
Finally, the NDP caucus is heavily skewed towards the West.
Just 20% of NDP voters live in British Columbia, but they elected 13 NDP MPs (more than half of the caucus)
Compare that to the 40% of NDP voters that live in Ontario, only electing 5 MPs.
Over 200,000 Atlantic NDP voters elected 0 MPs.
Just 20% of NDP voters live in British Columbia, but they elected 13 NDP MPs (more than half of the caucus)
Compare that to the 40% of NDP voters that live in Ontario, only electing 5 MPs.
Over 200,000 Atlantic NDP voters elected 0 MPs.
April 7, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Finally, the NDP caucus is heavily skewed towards the West.
Just 20% of NDP voters live in British Columbia, but they elected 13 NDP MPs (more than half of the caucus)
Compare that to the 40% of NDP voters that live in Ontario, only electing 5 MPs.
Over 200,000 Atlantic NDP voters elected 0 MPs.
Just 20% of NDP voters live in British Columbia, but they elected 13 NDP MPs (more than half of the caucus)
Compare that to the 40% of NDP voters that live in Ontario, only electing 5 MPs.
Over 200,000 Atlantic NDP voters elected 0 MPs.
A large majority (56%) of Conservative MPs are from Western Canada, but that is not reflected by the votes.
Roughly the same number of CPC voters live in Ontario as in Western Canada, but the West has many more CPC MPs.
This gives a misleading impression of how Canadians vote.
Roughly the same number of CPC voters live in Ontario as in Western Canada, but the West has many more CPC MPs.
This gives a misleading impression of how Canadians vote.
April 7, 2025 at 4:44 PM
A large majority (56%) of Conservative MPs are from Western Canada, but that is not reflected by the votes.
Roughly the same number of CPC voters live in Ontario as in Western Canada, but the West has many more CPC MPs.
This gives a misleading impression of how Canadians vote.
Roughly the same number of CPC voters live in Ontario as in Western Canada, but the West has many more CPC MPs.
This gives a misleading impression of how Canadians vote.
In 2021, about 12% of Liberal MPs were from Western Canada, and 16% were from Atlantic Canada.
However, 20% of LPC *voters* are from Western Canada, and just about 10% are from Atlantic Canada.
FPTP exaggerated LPC support in Eastern Canada, and minimized it in Western Canada.
However, 20% of LPC *voters* are from Western Canada, and just about 10% are from Atlantic Canada.
FPTP exaggerated LPC support in Eastern Canada, and minimized it in Western Canada.
April 7, 2025 at 4:44 PM
In 2021, about 12% of Liberal MPs were from Western Canada, and 16% were from Atlantic Canada.
However, 20% of LPC *voters* are from Western Canada, and just about 10% are from Atlantic Canada.
FPTP exaggerated LPC support in Eastern Canada, and minimized it in Western Canada.
However, 20% of LPC *voters* are from Western Canada, and just about 10% are from Atlantic Canada.
FPTP exaggerated LPC support in Eastern Canada, and minimized it in Western Canada.
The Longest Ballot Committee (@longestballot.bsky.social) is a political organization in Canada that has been contesting Canadian elections since the 2021.
They protest Canada’s elections by flooding individual districts with dozens of independent candidates. But why do they take this approach?
They protest Canada’s elections by flooding individual districts with dozens of independent candidates. But why do they take this approach?
April 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
The Longest Ballot Committee (@longestballot.bsky.social) is a political organization in Canada that has been contesting Canadian elections since the 2021.
They protest Canada’s elections by flooding individual districts with dozens of independent candidates. But why do they take this approach?
They protest Canada’s elections by flooding individual districts with dozens of independent candidates. But why do they take this approach?
With the election coming up, I'd like to emphasize that you can also find my analysis and advocacy on Instagram.
I would appreciate your support on any platform that you are on!
www.instagram.com/electoralren...
I would appreciate your support on any platform that you are on!
www.instagram.com/electoralren...
March 23, 2025 at 6:30 PM
With the election coming up, I'd like to emphasize that you can also find my analysis and advocacy on Instagram.
I would appreciate your support on any platform that you are on!
www.instagram.com/electoralren...
I would appreciate your support on any platform that you are on!
www.instagram.com/electoralren...
The PCs were carried to victory by their seat margins in Quebec and Alberta. With just 50% of the vote, they elected 87% of the MPs.
That's how a party can win a majority government with just 43% of the popular vote in Canada.
That's how a party can win a majority government with just 43% of the popular vote in Canada.
March 17, 2025 at 11:40 PM
The PCs were carried to victory by their seat margins in Quebec and Alberta. With just 50% of the vote, they elected 87% of the MPs.
That's how a party can win a majority government with just 43% of the popular vote in Canada.
That's how a party can win a majority government with just 43% of the popular vote in Canada.
With all the talk of US-Canada trade, did you know the first Canada-US Free Trade agreement hinged on our election system?
Turner's Liberals and Broadbent's NDP opposed the agreement, while Mulroney's PCs supported it.
The election was called after the Senate refused to pass the agreement.
Turner's Liberals and Broadbent's NDP opposed the agreement, while Mulroney's PCs supported it.
The election was called after the Senate refused to pass the agreement.
March 17, 2025 at 11:40 PM
With all the talk of US-Canada trade, did you know the first Canada-US Free Trade agreement hinged on our election system?
Turner's Liberals and Broadbent's NDP opposed the agreement, while Mulroney's PCs supported it.
The election was called after the Senate refused to pass the agreement.
Turner's Liberals and Broadbent's NDP opposed the agreement, while Mulroney's PCs supported it.
The election was called after the Senate refused to pass the agreement.
Ultimately, our election maps are a reflection of our voting system.
Under the First-Past-the-Post system, not every vote counts.
We need to adopt an election system based on Proportional Representation that honestly reflects what our electoral believes. (6/6)
Under the First-Past-the-Post system, not every vote counts.
We need to adopt an election system based on Proportional Representation that honestly reflects what our electoral believes. (6/6)
March 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Ultimately, our election maps are a reflection of our voting system.
Under the First-Past-the-Post system, not every vote counts.
We need to adopt an election system based on Proportional Representation that honestly reflects what our electoral believes. (6/6)
Under the First-Past-the-Post system, not every vote counts.
We need to adopt an election system based on Proportional Representation that honestly reflects what our electoral believes. (6/6)
The most complete way to display election results is to incorporate other kinds of visualization, like pie charts and cartograms.
They are slightly less intuitive, but still do a much better job telling you how everyone voted, not just who won. (5/6)
They are slightly less intuitive, but still do a much better job telling you how everyone voted, not just who won. (5/6)
March 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
The most complete way to display election results is to incorporate other kinds of visualization, like pie charts and cartograms.
They are slightly less intuitive, but still do a much better job telling you how everyone voted, not just who won. (5/6)
They are slightly less intuitive, but still do a much better job telling you how everyone voted, not just who won. (5/6)
There are better ways to map election results. Maps are easy to understand, and are still useful for sharing information.
You can divide results into polling stations, and areas can be shaded based on how popular each party is.
However, this is still limited to showing the leading candidate. (4/6)
You can divide results into polling stations, and areas can be shaded based on how popular each party is.
However, this is still limited to showing the leading candidate. (4/6)
March 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
There are better ways to map election results. Maps are easy to understand, and are still useful for sharing information.
You can divide results into polling stations, and areas can be shaded based on how popular each party is.
However, this is still limited to showing the leading candidate. (4/6)
You can divide results into polling stations, and areas can be shaded based on how popular each party is.
However, this is still limited to showing the leading candidate. (4/6)
Here are two maps of election results in West Montreal, from 2018 and 2022.
The maps look similar, but people voted very differently. The Liberals lost more than one-third of their popular support, the PQ fell to 5th, and the CAQ are now the 2nd largest party.
None of that is seen on the map (2/6)
The maps look similar, but people voted very differently. The Liberals lost more than one-third of their popular support, the PQ fell to 5th, and the CAQ are now the 2nd largest party.
None of that is seen on the map (2/6)
March 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Here are two maps of election results in West Montreal, from 2018 and 2022.
The maps look similar, but people voted very differently. The Liberals lost more than one-third of their popular support, the PQ fell to 5th, and the CAQ are now the 2nd largest party.
None of that is seen on the map (2/6)
The maps look similar, but people voted very differently. The Liberals lost more than one-third of their popular support, the PQ fell to 5th, and the CAQ are now the 2nd largest party.
None of that is seen on the map (2/6)
Elections maps, like the one below, are misleading.
They aren't incorrect. They provide about the same information as a list of elected officials and where they are from. But they don't actually show how people voted.
But this kind of distortion can have implications. (1/6)
They aren't incorrect. They provide about the same information as a list of elected officials and where they are from. But they don't actually show how people voted.
But this kind of distortion can have implications. (1/6)
March 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Elections maps, like the one below, are misleading.
They aren't incorrect. They provide about the same information as a list of elected officials and where they are from. But they don't actually show how people voted.
But this kind of distortion can have implications. (1/6)
They aren't incorrect. They provide about the same information as a list of elected officials and where they are from. But they don't actually show how people voted.
But this kind of distortion can have implications. (1/6)
In the recent Liberal Leadership Election, Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney won with an overwhelming 86.8% of the popular vote.
More than Trudeau in 2013 and Poilievre in 2022.
More than Trudeau in 2013 and Poilievre in 2022.
March 12, 2025 at 1:00 AM
In the recent Liberal Leadership Election, Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney won with an overwhelming 86.8% of the popular vote.
More than Trudeau in 2013 and Poilievre in 2022.
More than Trudeau in 2013 and Poilievre in 2022.