Michael Uhrich
@econtime.bsky.social
Founder & Chief Economist at Seventh Point Analytic Consulting. I mostly write stuff about economics for non-economists. Formerly EconBeer and EconSteel on that other site.
Here's construction for March. Looks like people are shifting towards improving existing homes rather than moving.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
May 1, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Here's construction for March. Looks like people are shifting towards improving existing homes rather than moving.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Prices are still up big vs. last year, but shockingly little inflation from February to March. My guess is folks were holding prices down as long as they could. Could get revised downward of course.
April 30, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Prices are still up big vs. last year, but shockingly little inflation from February to March. My guess is folks were holding prices down as long as they could. Could get revised downward of course.
JOLTS through March is out today from BLS. Openings per job seeker keep falling, and the tariffs haven’t even hit this data yet 😬
April 29, 2025 at 10:09 PM
JOLTS through March is out today from BLS. Openings per job seeker keep falling, and the tariffs haven’t even hit this data yet 😬
ISM Mfg. PMI down for second month in a row, and that ain't the half of it. The decline is NET of inventory builds to get ahead of the tariffs. Orders -3.4%, Employment -2.9%, and again - that's b4 stuff gets real. More on Mfg. tmrw from Census.
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
April 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
ISM Mfg. PMI down for second month in a row, and that ain't the half of it. The decline is NET of inventory builds to get ahead of the tariffs. Orders -3.4%, Employment -2.9%, and again - that's b4 stuff gets real. More on Mfg. tmrw from Census.
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
April 28, 2025 at 4:12 PM
In seeming agreement the risk may be equally high with either a cut or a hike, the markets are in near universal agreement, at least for now, the Fed will not change rates at its next meeting in two weeks.
April 24, 2025 at 2:42 PM
In seeming agreement the risk may be equally high with either a cut or a hike, the markets are in near universal agreement, at least for now, the Fed will not change rates at its next meeting in two weeks.
My gut tells says we're going to see economic growth drift south and inflation drift north. How much? Very hard to say. If the inflation rate increased just one percent to +3.5% and economic growth fell to -2%, then the FFR should actually stay right where it is at 4.3%.
April 23, 2025 at 11:35 PM
My gut tells says we're going to see economic growth drift south and inflation drift north. How much? Very hard to say. If the inflation rate increased just one percent to +3.5% and economic growth fell to -2%, then the FFR should actually stay right where it is at 4.3%.
Is Powell screwing up like POTUS says? Depends on your expectations. Investors see real GDP up ~0.5% and prices up ~2.5% for Q1. If they’re right, the current FFR (4.38) is about perfect*. But the ATL Fed says Q1 GDP could be -2.2%, implying rates should come down a lot.
*Under the std Taylor Rule
*Under the std Taylor Rule
April 23, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Is Powell screwing up like POTUS says? Depends on your expectations. Investors see real GDP up ~0.5% and prices up ~2.5% for Q1. If they’re right, the current FFR (4.38) is about perfect*. But the ATL Fed says Q1 GDP could be -2.2%, implying rates should come down a lot.
*Under the std Taylor Rule
*Under the std Taylor Rule