Michael Uhrich
@econtime.bsky.social
Founder & Chief Economist at Seventh Point Analytic Consulting. I mostly write stuff about economics for non-economists. Formerly EconBeer and EconSteel on that other site.
Here's construction for March. Looks like people are shifting towards improving existing homes rather than moving.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
May 1, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Here's construction for March. Looks like people are shifting towards improving existing homes rather than moving.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Also, nonresidential construction, such as factory construction, is growing, but not excessively fast. We won't be replacing world manufacturing here this month.
Prices are still up big vs. last year, but shockingly little inflation from February to March. My guess is folks were holding prices down as long as they could. Could get revised downward of course.
April 30, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Prices are still up big vs. last year, but shockingly little inflation from February to March. My guess is folks were holding prices down as long as they could. Could get revised downward of course.
BEA's early estimate for real GDP in Q1 is -0.3%. A few economist friends say they expect downward revisions due to some errors in import stat collection. We'll see.
April 30, 2025 at 11:01 PM
BEA's early estimate for real GDP in Q1 is -0.3%. A few economist friends say they expect downward revisions due to some errors in import stat collection. We'll see.
JOLTS through March is out today from BLS. Openings per job seeker keep falling, and the tariffs haven’t even hit this data yet 😬
April 29, 2025 at 10:09 PM
JOLTS through March is out today from BLS. Openings per job seeker keep falling, and the tariffs haven’t even hit this data yet 😬
More whiplash today as Trump changed his mind again, this’s one on auto tariffs, further increasing uncertainty 🤦♂️
Constitutional power to enact tariffs lies with Congress for a reason - they shouldn’t be executed as one would a bodily function.
Constitutional power to enact tariffs lies with Congress for a reason - they shouldn’t be executed as one would a bodily function.
April 29, 2025 at 9:57 PM
More whiplash today as Trump changed his mind again, this’s one on auto tariffs, further increasing uncertainty 🤦♂️
Constitutional power to enact tariffs lies with Congress for a reason - they shouldn’t be executed as one would a bodily function.
Constitutional power to enact tariffs lies with Congress for a reason - they shouldn’t be executed as one would a bodily function.
ISM Mfg. PMI down for second month in a row, and that ain't the half of it. The decline is NET of inventory builds to get ahead of the tariffs. Orders -3.4%, Employment -2.9%, and again - that's b4 stuff gets real. More on Mfg. tmrw from Census.
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
April 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
ISM Mfg. PMI down for second month in a row, and that ain't the half of it. The decline is NET of inventory builds to get ahead of the tariffs. Orders -3.4%, Employment -2.9%, and again - that's b4 stuff gets real. More on Mfg. tmrw from Census.
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
Full report here: www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
Heads up - tons of critical macroeconomic data coming out this week. Keep it here for key takeaways.
Tue: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Adv. Trade Balance
Wed: ADP Employment, Q1 GDP, PCE Inflation, NAR Pending Home Sales
Thu: Census Construction & ISM Mfg.
Fri: BLS Employment, Census Mfg.
Tue: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Adv. Trade Balance
Wed: ADP Employment, Q1 GDP, PCE Inflation, NAR Pending Home Sales
Thu: Census Construction & ISM Mfg.
Fri: BLS Employment, Census Mfg.
April 28, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Heads up - tons of critical macroeconomic data coming out this week. Keep it here for key takeaways.
Tue: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Adv. Trade Balance
Wed: ADP Employment, Q1 GDP, PCE Inflation, NAR Pending Home Sales
Thu: Census Construction & ISM Mfg.
Fri: BLS Employment, Census Mfg.
Tue: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Adv. Trade Balance
Wed: ADP Employment, Q1 GDP, PCE Inflation, NAR Pending Home Sales
Thu: Census Construction & ISM Mfg.
Fri: BLS Employment, Census Mfg.
April 28, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Is Powell screwing up like POTUS says? Depends on your expectations. Investors see real GDP up ~0.5% and prices up ~2.5% for Q1. If they’re right, the current FFR (4.38) is about perfect*. But the ATL Fed says Q1 GDP could be -2.2%, implying rates should come down a lot.
*Under the std Taylor Rule
*Under the std Taylor Rule
April 23, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Is Powell screwing up like POTUS says? Depends on your expectations. Investors see real GDP up ~0.5% and prices up ~2.5% for Q1. If they’re right, the current FFR (4.38) is about perfect*. But the ATL Fed says Q1 GDP could be -2.2%, implying rates should come down a lot.
*Under the std Taylor Rule
*Under the std Taylor Rule