Economics of War
@economicsofwar.bsky.social
Working in some of the more entertaining economies around the World. I focus upon the economic aspects of current conflicts including: #Myanmar #Sahel #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea #Syria #Yemen #Sudan #Libya #Moldova #Belarus
An aspect of the MOEX that is often missed is that it is not adjusted for inflation. Since the invasion, official cumulative inflation in #Russia is around 30% (in reality likely far higher), which means the real value of stocks plummeted, possibly at their lowest point since Feb 22.
October 14, 2025 at 10:53 PM
An aspect of the MOEX that is often missed is that it is not adjusted for inflation. Since the invasion, official cumulative inflation in #Russia is around 30% (in reality likely far higher), which means the real value of stocks plummeted, possibly at their lowest point since Feb 22.
The economy of #Moldova grew 1.1% year on year, which is less than it needs if it is indeed to make a lasting swing towards Europe. It's in the EU's interest to support investment into the country and ensure the pro-European stance of its people are rewarded.
October 6, 2025 at 12:52 AM
The economy of #Moldova grew 1.1% year on year, which is less than it needs if it is indeed to make a lasting swing towards Europe. It's in the EU's interest to support investment into the country and ensure the pro-European stance of its people are rewarded.
The long civil war in #Syria left a legacy of unskilled labour, one that is not easily remedied with work alone. With wages so low (largely due to excess unskilled labour supply), families are pressured to put children into the labour force, restricting their education which extends the problem.
August 9, 2025 at 12:48 AM
The long civil war in #Syria left a legacy of unskilled labour, one that is not easily remedied with work alone. With wages so low (largely due to excess unskilled labour supply), families are pressured to put children into the labour force, restricting their education which extends the problem.
The collapse of the Yemeni Rial is a direct consequence of #Houthi attacks on oil infrastructure which collapsed the fiscal position of the Government of #Yemen. Aden and Saana need to come to an agreement on oil revenue usage as much of the civilian population relies upon food imports.
July 2, 2025 at 10:11 PM
The Ukrainian drone attack on strategic airbases highlights the economic fragility of #Russia. The issue is less one of the damage of the strikes than that of the capacity of the Russian economy to replace aircraft. This is particularly important with the A-50 early warning & control aircraft.
June 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM
The Ukrainian drone attack on strategic airbases highlights the economic fragility of #Russia. The issue is less one of the damage of the strikes than that of the capacity of the Russian economy to replace aircraft. This is particularly important with the A-50 early warning & control aircraft.
Australia can help meet some of the demand. Problem is additional investment is needed to increase production, which will take time the USA does not have. Even still, Australia is under US sanctions and it costs more to produce in Australia.
April 14, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Australia can help meet some of the demand. Problem is additional investment is needed to increase production, which will take time the USA does not have. Even still, Australia is under US sanctions and it costs more to produce in Australia.
The #Sahel juntas in Niger, Mali & Burkina-Faso are struggling with insurgencies. New tariffs (albeit very low) on states they formerly had free trade is an attempt to find funds to help resource this fight. This is unlikely to bring in much additional revenue, though will raise costs and tensions
April 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The #Sahel juntas in Niger, Mali & Burkina-Faso are struggling with insurgencies. New tariffs (albeit very low) on states they formerly had free trade is an attempt to find funds to help resource this fight. This is unlikely to bring in much additional revenue, though will raise costs and tensions
The fall in oil futures is bad news for #Russia who are unable to adequately service their existing fiscal deficit. If the tariff war takes root, the resulting global economic downturn will severely restrict the Kremlin's ability to prosecute the Russo-Ukrainian War.
April 4, 2025 at 9:20 PM
The fall in oil futures is bad news for #Russia who are unable to adequately service their existing fiscal deficit. If the tariff war takes root, the resulting global economic downturn will severely restrict the Kremlin's ability to prosecute the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The Moscow Exchange has had a substantial rally since the US election, one that continues with the prospect of a cessation of hostilities. This is premised upon the prospect of a rapid decline in spending from the Kremlin, though the level of bond payments may leave spending high for some time.
February 18, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The Moscow Exchange has had a substantial rally since the US election, one that continues with the prospect of a cessation of hostilities. This is premised upon the prospect of a rapid decline in spending from the Kremlin, though the level of bond payments may leave spending high for some time.
The Sudan rail network is reportedly resuming operations in the North of the country. The degradation of transport infrastructure through destruction, looting and under investment in any conflict is substantive. A return of services, even limited, is key to supporting economic activity.
January 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM
The Sudan rail network is reportedly resuming operations in the North of the country. The degradation of transport infrastructure through destruction, looting and under investment in any conflict is substantive. A return of services, even limited, is key to supporting economic activity.
Interbank transfers in Sudan resumed since they halted in April 2023; a welcome development. The Central Bank of Sudan (which facilitate such transfers) has been based in Khartoum the entire time, which suggests the SAF are achieving a degree of control within the capital.
January 3, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Interbank transfers in Sudan resumed since they halted in April 2023; a welcome development. The Central Bank of Sudan (which facilitate such transfers) has been based in Khartoum the entire time, which suggests the SAF are achieving a degree of control within the capital.
Gazprom's gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine halt today as the transit deal expires. This is unlikely to have a major impact on Europe, with the exception of Moldova. Chisinau declared an economic state of emergency and is urgently seeking alternatives including importing power from Romania.
December 31, 2024 at 7:51 PM
Gazprom's gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine halt today as the transit deal expires. This is unlikely to have a major impact on Europe, with the exception of Moldova. Chisinau declared an economic state of emergency and is urgently seeking alternatives including importing power from Romania.
The Lebanese stock exchanged surged following the collapse of the Assad regime. The decline of Iranian and Russian influence in the region appears to be well received by Lebanese investors. Whether the HTS can usher in the stability required to improve the Syrian economy remains to be seen.
December 26, 2024 at 11:18 PM
The Lebanese stock exchanged surged following the collapse of the Assad regime. The decline of Iranian and Russian influence in the region appears to be well received by Lebanese investors. Whether the HTS can usher in the stability required to improve the Syrian economy remains to be seen.
The #Myanmar Junta's Minister of Planning & Finance, U Win Shein, predicts an economic growth rate of 3.8% for 24/25. This fails to take into account the economy outside of areas of Junta control, which it is actively destroying. Absolution of economic responsibility is a common junta trait.
December 18, 2024 at 1:50 AM
The #Myanmar Junta's Minister of Planning & Finance, U Win Shein, predicts an economic growth rate of 3.8% for 24/25. This fails to take into account the economy outside of areas of Junta control, which it is actively destroying. Absolution of economic responsibility is a common junta trait.
The World Bank's latest report on #Myanmar notes that the Junta's policies of indirect taxing of remittances (through lower than market exchange rates) is forcing more people to take less efficient informal migration for work. The economy would fare far better without the Junta's rent-seeking.
December 13, 2024 at 12:22 AM
The World Bank's latest report on #Myanmar notes that the Junta's policies of indirect taxing of remittances (through lower than market exchange rates) is forcing more people to take less efficient informal migration for work. The economy would fare far better without the Junta's rent-seeking.
The degradation of #Hezbollah in October followed by the demise of #Assad in December were met with a yawn from the Lebanese stock exchange. This provides insight as to the depth of Hezbollah & Assad's economic integration, partly explaining their heavy reliance upon external patrons.
December 10, 2024 at 10:11 PM
The degradation of #Hezbollah in October followed by the demise of #Assad in December were met with a yawn from the Lebanese stock exchange. This provides insight as to the depth of Hezbollah & Assad's economic integration, partly explaining their heavy reliance upon external patrons.
The Kachin Independence Army's assault on the strategic town of Bhamo is not just important militarily. Bhamo's position means controlling the city enables a cohesive economic structure for Southern Kachin, enhancing the KIA's control of the state.
#Myanmar #Kachin
c/- Myanmar War Map
#Myanmar #Kachin
c/- Myanmar War Map
December 8, 2024 at 7:49 PM
The BLOM continues to show indifference to the events in #Syria. This suggests Damascus failed to economically integrate or foster relations with one of its most important regional neighbours. The economic demise of Assad's Syria preceded the military.
December 7, 2024 at 10:33 PM
The BLOM continues to show indifference to the events in #Syria. This suggests Damascus failed to economically integrate or foster relations with one of its most important regional neighbours. The economic demise of Assad's Syria preceded the military.
The deep economic strain Russia finds itself under also reduced the capacity to support the Syrian economy. Damascus also did little to foster regional economic ties. The stock index in Lebanon is largely indifferent, suggesting a low-level of interaction with the Syrian economy.
December 7, 2024 at 10:22 PM
The deep economic strain Russia finds itself under also reduced the capacity to support the Syrian economy. Damascus also did little to foster regional economic ties. The stock index in Lebanon is largely indifferent, suggesting a low-level of interaction with the Syrian economy.
Despite the incursion of #Israel, the stock market in #Lebanon showed remarkably little concern, signalling an expectation that the conflict with #Hezbollah would be contained. How the market reacts to recent events in #Syria remains to be seen.
November 29, 2024 at 8:46 PM
Despite the incursion of #Israel, the stock market in #Lebanon showed remarkably little concern, signalling an expectation that the conflict with #Hezbollah would be contained. How the market reacts to recent events in #Syria remains to be seen.
The #Rouble continues its managed devaluation as the Kremlin's bond auction shortfalls leave a yawning fiscal deficit. An increase in the Rouble value of oil will greatly help. It will, however, make imports more expensive, adding inflationary pressure to a #Russian economy facing stagflation.
November 26, 2024 at 9:54 PM
Energy grids do not fare well in conflict. In #Yemen, reportedly 75% of urban households and 50% of the rural population rely upon solar power. Off-grid energy solutions are needed in areas of high or persistent conflict if the economy is to function in a manner that benefits local populations.
November 23, 2024 at 10:55 PM
Energy grids do not fare well in conflict. In #Yemen, reportedly 75% of urban households and 50% of the rural population rely upon solar power. Off-grid energy solutions are needed in areas of high or persistent conflict if the economy is to function in a manner that benefits local populations.