Economics of War
@economicsofwar.bsky.social
Working in some of the more entertaining economies around the World. I focus upon the economic aspects of current conflicts including: #Myanmar #Sahel #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea #Syria #Yemen #Sudan #Libya #Moldova #Belarus
Corporate tax in #Russia continues to fall, further risking further delayed payments from the Kremlin as finances are tight. Such delayed payments in an economy driven by state expenditure further erode corporate profits, further decreasing corporate tax, further reducing the Kremlin's finances...
Russian Companies Face Record Debt Burden as High Rates Squeeze Profits – Think Tank - The Moscow Times
Russian businesses are under mounting pressure from debt servicing as interest payments consumed a record 39% of pre-tax, pre-interest profits in September, according to estimates by the Kremlin-linke...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Corporate tax in #Russia continues to fall, further risking further delayed payments from the Kremlin as finances are tight. Such delayed payments in an economy driven by state expenditure further erode corporate profits, further decreasing corporate tax, further reducing the Kremlin's finances...
Increasing attacks on women in #Yemen serves to drive down the economic potential of the country. Women in government controlled parts of Yemen, notably Taiz, were instrumental in improving accountability and protesting ill-conceived economic policies, particularly at the local government level.
How public assassinations are silencing Yemen’s women
According to the Yemeni Network for Rights and Freedoms, 5,618 violations against women between January 2017 and July 2025 across 17 governorates.
www.newarab.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Increasing attacks on women in #Yemen serves to drive down the economic potential of the country. Women in government controlled parts of Yemen, notably Taiz, were instrumental in improving accountability and protesting ill-conceived economic policies, particularly at the local government level.
In #Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces have a stronger grasp on the need for a functioning economy than the Rapid Support Forces, who rely more heavily upon patronage. That said, the SAF's capacity to provide such an environment is extremely low, primarily due to poor policies and weak enforcement.
Aid groups warn of 'complete collapse' in Darfur as displacement surges - Sudan Tribune
November 13, 2025 (TAWILA) – Hundreds of people are arriving daily in Tawila, North Darfur, despite the escalating humanitarian crisis, an IDP community leader said on Thursday. Situated approximately...
sudantribune.com
November 17, 2025 at 6:10 PM
In #Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces have a stronger grasp on the need for a functioning economy than the Rapid Support Forces, who rely more heavily upon patronage. That said, the SAF's capacity to provide such an environment is extremely low, primarily due to poor policies and weak enforcement.
An exceptional article on how the scam industry embedded itself in the politics of #Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia with a nod to the Philippines.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
Southeast Asian governments implicated in the scam economy have moved to signal action. Yet these illicit industries are woven into the fabric of political and economic power itself, making genuine enforcement perilous for regimes that depend on them.
Cracking Southeast Asia’s Scam Economy
Washington and London’s recent unprecedented actions showed what global coordination can achieve – and what remains to be done.
buff.ly
November 16, 2025 at 6:16 PM
An exceptional article on how the scam industry embedded itself in the politics of #Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia with a nod to the Philippines.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
A must read for those who wish to know why the industry thrives in the region.
The continued attack on fraud in #Ukraine is a sign that the country is prepared to tackle one of its most pressing issues. Fraud undermines the capacity of a country to defend itself, costing lives at the front line. Such graft needs to be eliminated if Russia is to be held back.
London Court Orders Kolomoisky and Boholiubov to Pay Ukraine JSC CB PrivatBank Over $3B in Damages
The High Court in London has ordered former owners of Ukraine’s largest state-owned bank, PrivatBank, to pay over $3 billion in a major fraud case.
www.kyivpost.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The continued attack on fraud in #Ukraine is a sign that the country is prepared to tackle one of its most pressing issues. Fraud undermines the capacity of a country to defend itself, costing lives at the front line. Such graft needs to be eliminated if Russia is to be held back.
The fiscal deficit in #Russia is ballooning. The steep increase in expenditure is partly due to the severe depletion, and in many areas exhaustion, of ex-Soviet stockpiles of useable equipment and munitions. Production and procurement is playing an increasing role in supplying Moscow's war effort.
KSE: Russia’s Oil Revenues Drop to $13.4B as New Sanctions Can Strain War Financing
Russia’s oil income fell to $13.4B in October. Western allies could tighten sanctions on oil trading, tanker insurance, and the National Wealth Fund to strain Moscow’s war financing.
www.kyivpost.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:32 PM
The fiscal deficit in #Russia is ballooning. The steep increase in expenditure is partly due to the severe depletion, and in many areas exhaustion, of ex-Soviet stockpiles of useable equipment and munitions. Production and procurement is playing an increasing role in supplying Moscow's war effort.
Whilst sanctions continue on #NorthKorea, their efficacy has been greatly undermined by the growing rapport with Russia. Still, the fact that ship-to-ship smuggling continues suggests relations with Russia are insufficient to cover all of Pyongyang's needs.
Canadian arctic patrol ship monitors North Korea smuggling for 2nd time in month | NK News
A Canadian arctic patrol vessel recently completed its second mission in a month to monitor North Korean maritime smuggling in violation of U.N. sanctions, Japan’s foreign ministry announced Tuesday. ...
www.nknews.org
November 12, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Whilst sanctions continue on #NorthKorea, their efficacy has been greatly undermined by the growing rapport with Russia. Still, the fact that ship-to-ship smuggling continues suggests relations with Russia are insufficient to cover all of Pyongyang's needs.
Whilst #Belarus wishes to increase its domestic defence industry, the reality is that when the Russo-Ukraine War slows down, Russia will dump a significant portion of surplus arms production in Belarus. Belarusian investors will be aware of this and are likely to stick to tractors rather than tanks
Lukashenko outlines tasks for domestic defense industry
The president noted that, thanks to good relations with Russia, Belarus currently possesses tactical nuclear weapons, and that the Oreshnik missile system will enter combat duty in December. However, ...
eng.belta.by
November 11, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Whilst #Belarus wishes to increase its domestic defence industry, the reality is that when the Russo-Ukraine War slows down, Russia will dump a significant portion of surplus arms production in Belarus. Belarusian investors will be aware of this and are likely to stick to tractors rather than tanks
The #Myanmar Junta continues to dismantle scam centres following heavy pressure from China, however most centres remain untouched. Scam centres under KNA control such as Shwe Koko continue to thrive, and despite the theatrics few, if any, top operators have been detained.
www.irrawaddy.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:45 PM
The #Myanmar Junta continues to dismantle scam centres following heavy pressure from China, however most centres remain untouched. Scam centres under KNA control such as Shwe Koko continue to thrive, and despite the theatrics few, if any, top operators have been detained.
Removing cash transactions for large business dealings is a sensible move to encourage a rules-based order in #Libya. The problem is, who is in charge of the rules? Benghazi and Tripoli need to work together to ensure Libyan businesses are not punished for working across both administrations.
Benghazi authorities implement mandatory electronic payment measures.
The Electronic Payment Services Activation Committee has mandated that major merchants and distributors conduct their transactions via banking services, checks, and letters of credit, eliminating cash...
libyaobserver.ly
November 9, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Removing cash transactions for large business dealings is a sensible move to encourage a rules-based order in #Libya. The problem is, who is in charge of the rules? Benghazi and Tripoli need to work together to ensure Libyan businesses are not punished for working across both administrations.
The surge in poverty in #Sudan is largely attributed to the War, however it should be noted this includes areas not directly involved in the conflict. Abysmal economic policies from the RSF and SAF heavily contributed to the impoverishment of the country.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Sudan minister says poverty soared to 71% due to conflict - Sudan Tribune
November 8, 2025 (PORT SUDAN) – Sudan’s poverty rate has surged to 71% from 21% since the start of the current conflict, the Minister of Human Resources and Social Welfare, Mutasim Ahmed Saleh, said o...
sudantribune.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:28 AM
The surge in poverty in #Sudan is largely attributed to the War, however it should be noted this includes areas not directly involved in the conflict. Abysmal economic policies from the RSF and SAF heavily contributed to the impoverishment of the country.
Soldiers make poor economists.
Soldiers make poor economists.
The #Myanmar Junta's efforts to collect tax revenues from overseas workers is a double-edged sword. It counters some of the domestic taxation revenue losses resulting from the War and poor economic policies, but also robs small business of a critical source of capital, stifling economic growth.
Myanmar regime’s tax revenue surges by a third, largely on the backs of migrant workers
The junta collected an additional one trillion kyat in the 2024-25 fiscal year, largely thanks to workers abroad, according to analysts
myanmar-now.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:00 PM
The #Myanmar Junta's efforts to collect tax revenues from overseas workers is a double-edged sword. It counters some of the domestic taxation revenue losses resulting from the War and poor economic policies, but also robs small business of a critical source of capital, stifling economic growth.
For #Ukraine to outlast Russia it must significantly improve its economic efficiency. Corruption is a significant inefficiency that the country cannot afford. Whilst it is good to see corrupt officials caught, much more needs to be done to strengthen the anti-corruption legal framework.
Ukraine nuclear energy sector official arrested over bribery scheme
Between June and November 2025, the official received Hr 1.67 million ($40,000) in illicit payments, with the total sum exceeding Hr 6.6 million ($156,000), according to the investigation.
kyivindependent.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:55 PM
For #Ukraine to outlast Russia it must significantly improve its economic efficiency. Corruption is a significant inefficiency that the country cannot afford. Whilst it is good to see corrupt officials caught, much more needs to be done to strengthen the anti-corruption legal framework.
Attacking the economic underpinnings of Russia's war machine will not stop Putin, however it will put pressure on those in #Russia who can. Reducing Russia's capacity to conduct the War, possibly to the point where reversals begin, will bring the end-date of this conflict closer.
Analysis: Ukraine’s Bombardment of Russia – Not Just Oil Refineries, Warships Any More
Kyiv is messaging it wants blackouts across west and south Russia, and has launched dozens of drone strikes targeting the Russian power grid to start the process.
www.kyivpost.com
November 5, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Attacking the economic underpinnings of Russia's war machine will not stop Putin, however it will put pressure on those in #Russia who can. Reducing Russia's capacity to conduct the War, possibly to the point where reversals begin, will bring the end-date of this conflict closer.
By undertaking an economic war in #Mali, the JNIM are threatening the entire #Sahel as their strategy expands. Russia is unable to provide the support that ECOWAS and France could bring to bear. International support for the three juntas' neighbours is needed if JNIM are to be contained.
Jihadi fighters affiliated with al Qaeda close in on Mali’s capital, as instability grows across Sahel region | CNN
A well-armed jihadist group affiliated with al Qaeda is closing in on Bamako, the capital of Mali. The country’s military junta and their Russian partners are struggling to counter the jihadis, who no...
edition.cnn.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Emigration in #Belarus continues to plague the country, however Minsk has an ace up its sleeve; it's not Russia. Immigrants do not face the prospect of being pressed into military service, encouraging many to make the move. That could change should Minsk join Moscow in its misadventure in Ukraine.
Labor migrants in Belarus rise 1.5 times, political emigration soars
The influx of foreigners wishing to work in Belarus is growing. This was stated on October 28 by First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Yury Nazaranka during the Third Minsk International Conferenc...
en.belsat.eu
November 3, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Emigration in #Belarus continues to plague the country, however Minsk has an ace up its sleeve; it's not Russia. Immigrants do not face the prospect of being pressed into military service, encouraging many to make the move. That could change should Minsk join Moscow in its misadventure in Ukraine.
The appointment of Alexandru Munteanu, an economic technocrat, as Prime Minister of #Moldova is a positive move if the country wants to join Europe. Moldova needs a raft of complex economic policies and laws that more politically minded PMs typically find difficult to implement.
Moldova installs pro-EU Munteanu as new prime minister
New PM will help lead the country’s push to become an EU member.
www.politico.eu
November 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The appointment of Alexandru Munteanu, an economic technocrat, as Prime Minister of #Moldova is a positive move if the country wants to join Europe. Moldova needs a raft of complex economic policies and laws that more politically minded PMs typically find difficult to implement.
The arbitrary arrest and trial of UN staff in #Yemen will act as a brake on efforts to improve the economic and humanitarian situation in the North of the country. Economies need certainty, and such arrests for political gain achieve the opposite.
Yemen’s Houthis say arrested UN staff will be tried over Israeli links
Dozens of Yemeni UN personnel could face death penalty, as UN says at least 59 of its staff are being held by the group.
www.aljazeera.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:12 PM
The arbitrary arrest and trial of UN staff in #Yemen will act as a brake on efforts to improve the economic and humanitarian situation in the North of the country. Economies need certainty, and such arrests for political gain achieve the opposite.
RSF atrocities in El Fasher effectively eliminated its ambitions for ruling all of #Sudan. The broader question now is whether Sudan can remain as one country or bifurcate in a similar manner to that of Libya. Recent history suggests the RSF's backer, UAE, may be willing to overlook such massacres.
Sudan doctors say 2,000 killed, some burned alive in El Fasher - Sudan Tribune
October 29, 2025 (KHARTOUM) – A Sudanese doctors’ union said on Wednesday that 2,000 civilians were killed, some of them burned alive, in the first hours after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (R...
sudantribune.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:40 PM
RSF atrocities in El Fasher effectively eliminated its ambitions for ruling all of #Sudan. The broader question now is whether Sudan can remain as one country or bifurcate in a similar manner to that of Libya. Recent history suggests the RSF's backer, UAE, may be willing to overlook such massacres.
While there was a show of cleaning up cyber gangs in #Myanmar, the reality is most continue to operate. There are estimated to be 100,000 people trapped in scam centres along the border. There needs to be an international military solution as Naypyidaw hasn't the will.
Murder on the Moei: How Chinese cyber gangs in Myanmar are killing with impunity
Myanmar Now and Prachatai uncover chilling details about the steady stream of bodies flowing along the Thai-Myanmar border, near some of the world’s most notorious scam centres
myanmar-now.org
October 30, 2025 at 7:17 PM
While there was a show of cleaning up cyber gangs in #Myanmar, the reality is most continue to operate. There are estimated to be 100,000 people trapped in scam centres along the border. There needs to be an international military solution as Naypyidaw hasn't the will.
Whilst the headline is hyperbole, the article makes sense as the Central Bank of #Russia faces increasing political pressure, pressure it is finding difficult to resist. Expansive monetary policy from the Kremlin counters the tight fiscal policy of the Bank at every turn; inflation is gearing up.
Russia's Central Bank Has Lost What Remained of Its Independence - The Moscow Times
Opinion | The Russian Central Bank has cut the key interest rate again from 17% to 16.5%, as most experts had predicted.
www.themoscowtimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Whilst the headline is hyperbole, the article makes sense as the Central Bank of #Russia faces increasing political pressure, pressure it is finding difficult to resist. Expansive monetary policy from the Kremlin counters the tight fiscal policy of the Bank at every turn; inflation is gearing up.
It is in the interest of #Syria to maintain relationships with all probable investors, and this includes Russia. Damascus will need to extract a hefty price from Moscow if it is to assuage domestic discontent, as many within Syria harbour deep misgivings.
Syria seeks to ‘redefine’ Russia ties, al-Sharaa tells Putin in Moscow
Syria's interim leader assures the Russian president that his government will honour all past agreements with Moscow.
www.aljazeera.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:35 AM
It is in the interest of #Syria to maintain relationships with all probable investors, and this includes Russia. Damascus will need to extract a hefty price from Moscow if it is to assuage domestic discontent, as many within Syria harbour deep misgivings.
JNMI continue their strategic targeting of fuel supplies and logistics in #Mali. This appears tactically effective, however how effective it is in undermining the authority of the ruling Junta is less clear given the immediate hardships this places upon the civilian population.
#Sahel
#Sahel
Mali is squeezed as militants enforce an unusual blockade on fuel
Mali is facing a fuel blockade imposed by jihadi militants, causing significant disruptions. It's an unusual strategy as the insurgent threat grows across the region.
apnews.com
October 27, 2025 at 8:27 PM
#Ukraine continues to decentralise its power grid, improving its resilience in the face of targeted strikes by Russia. Adding solar and batteries would enhance these plants resilience, buying valuable time for repairs should a strike occur. Rooftop solar feeding into the grid would further assist.
State-Owned Companies to Add 400 MW of Distributed Gas Power by End of 2025
The Energy Ministry is accelerating distributed gas projects to strengthen Ukraine’s energy resilience as Russia targets the power grid.
www.kyivpost.com
October 26, 2025 at 9:16 PM
#Ukraine continues to decentralise its power grid, improving its resilience in the face of targeted strikes by Russia. Adding solar and batteries would enhance these plants resilience, buying valuable time for repairs should a strike occur. Rooftop solar feeding into the grid would further assist.
#Myanmar is deepening its reliance upon China as scarce capital continues to plague the junta. How such investment is likely to impact Myanmar in the long-term is uncertain, though what is clear is that dependency upon China is growing.
www.irrawaddy.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:36 PM
#Myanmar is deepening its reliance upon China as scarce capital continues to plague the junta. How such investment is likely to impact Myanmar in the long-term is uncertain, though what is clear is that dependency upon China is growing.