Economics of War
@economicsofwar.bsky.social
Working in some of the more entertaining economies around the World. I focus upon the economic aspects of current conflicts including: #Myanmar #Sahel #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea #Syria #Yemen #Sudan #Libya #Moldova #Belarus
As long as #Libya remains split, there will be concerns regarding the reliability of the energy grid. Solar is a highly viable alternative for investors in Libya
This also builds energy resilience for manufacturing should there be a return to hostilities.
This also builds energy resilience for manufacturing should there be a return to hostilities.
Libyan steel company signs deal for 25MW solar project
The Libyan Iron and Steel Company (LISCO) has signed an agreement with a US firm to build a 25-megawatt solar power plant, its chairman Mohamed Abdelmalik Al-Fqih said, calling for stronger government...
libyaobserver.ly
January 13, 2026 at 8:29 PM
As long as #Libya remains split, there will be concerns regarding the reliability of the energy grid. Solar is a highly viable alternative for investors in Libya
This also builds energy resilience for manufacturing should there be a return to hostilities.
This also builds energy resilience for manufacturing should there be a return to hostilities.
The ability of the government in #Sudan to pay salaries despite the SAF's grip on the budget, suggests significant external funding via the Central Bank.
The Central Bank retains a level of independence (and competence) from the military, making it a likely conduit for such funding.
The Central Bank retains a level of independence (and competence) from the military, making it a likely conduit for such funding.
Sudan says 2025 budget obligations met despite wartime economic pressures - Sudan Tribune
January 5, 2026 (PORT SUDAN) – Sudan’s Ministry of Finance said on Monday it has fulfilled all financial obligations for the 2025 fiscal year, including funding for military operations, federal salari...
sudantribune.com
January 12, 2026 at 8:24 PM
The ability of the government in #Sudan to pay salaries despite the SAF's grip on the budget, suggests significant external funding via the Central Bank.
The Central Bank retains a level of independence (and competence) from the military, making it a likely conduit for such funding.
The Central Bank retains a level of independence (and competence) from the military, making it a likely conduit for such funding.
The arrest in Cambodia and deportation to China of an alleged scam king-pin signals growing impatience from Beijing.
The #Myanmar Junta will be taking note, as scam centres provide much needed finance both directly and via allies. Expect more performative anti-scam operations in the near future.
The #Myanmar Junta will be taking note, as scam centres provide much needed finance both directly and via allies. Expect more performative anti-scam operations in the near future.
‘Sever the chain’: Scam tycoons in China’s crosshairs
Beijing is stepping up efforts to bring alleged scam centre ringleaders back to China before they can be extradited elsewhere
myanmar-now.org
January 12, 2026 at 12:13 AM
The arrest in Cambodia and deportation to China of an alleged scam king-pin signals growing impatience from Beijing.
The #Myanmar Junta will be taking note, as scam centres provide much needed finance both directly and via allies. Expect more performative anti-scam operations in the near future.
The #Myanmar Junta will be taking note, as scam centres provide much needed finance both directly and via allies. Expect more performative anti-scam operations in the near future.
The war economy in #Russia creates uncertainty as it is driven by non-market forces. This creates volatility in consumer confidence, leading to wild swings in discretionary spending.
Russia's risk profile for private capital investment will remain high for as long as the war economy is in place.
Russia's risk profile for private capital investment will remain high for as long as the war economy is in place.
Store Closures Sweep Russia’s Fashion Market as Profits Come Under Pressure - The Moscow Times
Russian fashion retailers closed hundreds of stores in 2025, and further shutdowns are expected next year as weak consumer demand and rising costs erode profitability, industry experts said.
www.themoscowtimes.com
January 10, 2026 at 9:09 PM
The war economy in #Russia creates uncertainty as it is driven by non-market forces. This creates volatility in consumer confidence, leading to wild swings in discretionary spending.
Russia's risk profile for private capital investment will remain high for as long as the war economy is in place.
Russia's risk profile for private capital investment will remain high for as long as the war economy is in place.
To defeat Russia, #Ukraine needs to be more efficient and effective on the battle field and in the economy.
Having qualified outsiders as business ombudsman is a clever move in retaining and growing business confidence. Such placements greatly assist the erosion of highly damaging corruption.
Having qualified outsiders as business ombudsman is a clever move in retaining and growing business confidence. Such placements greatly assist the erosion of highly damaging corruption.
Ex-German ambassador appointed as Ukraine's new business watchdog
Anka Feldhusen, the German ambassador from 2019-2023, replaces Canadian Roman Washchuk, who led the Business Ombudsman Council from December 2021-2025.
kyivindependent.com
January 10, 2026 at 1:09 AM
To defeat Russia, #Ukraine needs to be more efficient and effective on the battle field and in the economy.
Having qualified outsiders as business ombudsman is a clever move in retaining and growing business confidence. Such placements greatly assist the erosion of highly damaging corruption.
Having qualified outsiders as business ombudsman is a clever move in retaining and growing business confidence. Such placements greatly assist the erosion of highly damaging corruption.
The juntas of the Alliance of #Sahel States want to control prices in order to improve food security. Great care must be taken that local farmers are not undercut. If so, the result would be a collapse of domestic cereal production (currently approximately 22 million tonnes annually).
Sahel Alliance Moves Toward Joint Purchasing Agency for Food Security
The Alliance of Sahel States plans to create a joint purchasing agency covering Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The initiative aims to regulate cereal markets, build a shared grain reserve, and strengt...
www.ecofinagency.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:44 PM
The juntas of the Alliance of #Sahel States want to control prices in order to improve food security. Great care must be taken that local farmers are not undercut. If so, the result would be a collapse of domestic cereal production (currently approximately 22 million tonnes annually).
As events in Syria, Iran, Armenia and Venezuela show, there are significant limits to Moscow's support.
Hence South Korea expects continuing strong Chinese influence in #NorthKorea, making them, not Moscow, the primary party for Seoul to work with to ease tensions on the peninsular.
Hence South Korea expects continuing strong Chinese influence in #NorthKorea, making them, not Moscow, the primary party for Seoul to work with to ease tensions on the peninsular.
Lee Jae Myung to seek China’s support on North Korea during upcoming visit: Wi | NK News
Seoul will seek China’s cooperation in advancing dialogue with North Korea during President Lee Jae Myung’s upcoming state visit to Beijing, South Korea’s national security adviser said Friday, unders...
www.nknews.org
January 7, 2026 at 8:59 PM
As events in Syria, Iran, Armenia and Venezuela show, there are significant limits to Moscow's support.
Hence South Korea expects continuing strong Chinese influence in #NorthKorea, making them, not Moscow, the primary party for Seoul to work with to ease tensions on the peninsular.
Hence South Korea expects continuing strong Chinese influence in #NorthKorea, making them, not Moscow, the primary party for Seoul to work with to ease tensions on the peninsular.
Investment in renewables in #Belarus remains relatively modest as all facilities above 10MW must sell to the grid rather than be self-consumed, disincentivising large private sector investment.
This policy suits Russia as it slows moves towards Belarusian energy independence.
This policy suits Russia as it slows moves towards Belarusian energy independence.
State program for Sustainable Energy and Energy Efficiency 2026-2030 approved in Belarus
Within its framework, it is planned to implement a wide range of infrastructure projects
news.by
January 6, 2026 at 8:09 PM
Investment in renewables in #Belarus remains relatively modest as all facilities above 10MW must sell to the grid rather than be self-consumed, disincentivising large private sector investment.
This policy suits Russia as it slows moves towards Belarusian energy independence.
This policy suits Russia as it slows moves towards Belarusian energy independence.
#Moldova is moving defence procurement away from ex-Soviet and Russian equipment. Whilst Moldova's defence procurement is small, changes such as these reduce reliance upon supply chains that can be influenced by Russia. Larger procurements are likely to follow, but it will take time.
Moldova's Military Will Abandon Kalashnikov Assault Rifles
As part of the transition to NATO standards.
charter97.org
January 5, 2026 at 7:42 PM
#Moldova is moving defence procurement away from ex-Soviet and Russian equipment. Whilst Moldova's defence procurement is small, changes such as these reduce reliance upon supply chains that can be influenced by Russia. Larger procurements are likely to follow, but it will take time.
The potential capture by anti-Junta forces of Katha in #Myanmar places the Junta in a difficult position. The Junta has few positions remaining on the left bank of the Irrawaddy North of Mandalay, with Katha being their primary land supply corridor.
Resistance forces enter Katha after clashes spread on junta election day
The armed resistance seized two military hilltop outposts before advancing into the urban wards of Katha, Sagaing Region, the day after the military regime held elections in the town
myanmar-now.org
January 4, 2026 at 9:03 PM
The potential capture by anti-Junta forces of Katha in #Myanmar places the Junta in a difficult position. The Junta has few positions remaining on the left bank of the Irrawaddy North of Mandalay, with Katha being their primary land supply corridor.
Whilst it is unclear if China is forgiving #Sudan this particular debt or merely freezing it, the act is recognition of Sudan's fiscal reality. Debt repayments in such circumstances risk generating civil anger towards the lender, making debt forgiveness of smaller amounts diplomatically astute.
China to exempt Sudan from 345 million yuan in debt - Sudan Tribune
January 1, 2026 (PORT SUDAN) – China plans to exempt Sudan from repaying 345 million yuan ($45 million) in interest-free loans previously provided to finance various development projects, the Sudanese...
sudantribune.com
January 4, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Whilst it is unclear if China is forgiving #Sudan this particular debt or merely freezing it, the act is recognition of Sudan's fiscal reality. Debt repayments in such circumstances risk generating civil anger towards the lender, making debt forgiveness of smaller amounts diplomatically astute.
The eruption of fighting between anti-Houthi forces in #Yemen bodes ill for the civilian population as parts of the country previously outside of the conflict zone are drawn into it.
This will undermine the economy, what remains of it, as investors saw such areas as lower risk. No longer.
This will undermine the economy, what remains of it, as investors saw such areas as lower risk. No longer.
Deadly battles erupt in southern Yemen as Saudi Arabia strikes separatists
Separatist Southern Transitional Council accuses Saudi Arabia of bombing its forces near the border.
www.aljazeera.com
January 2, 2026 at 9:37 PM
The eruption of fighting between anti-Houthi forces in #Yemen bodes ill for the civilian population as parts of the country previously outside of the conflict zone are drawn into it.
This will undermine the economy, what remains of it, as investors saw such areas as lower risk. No longer.
This will undermine the economy, what remains of it, as investors saw such areas as lower risk. No longer.
Europe's decoupling from Gazprom signals a long-term structural challenge for #Russia. Whilst gas can be sold elsewhere, such markets are distant, requiring logistic networks that reduces its competitiveness against alternate suppliers.
Russia's fiscal woes won't end with the war.
Russia's fiscal woes won't end with the war.
Gazprom’s Gas Exports to Europe Fall to Lowest Level Since Early 1970s - The Moscow Times
Russia’s Gazprom cut gas supplies to Europe by a further 44% in 2025, reducing flows to 18 billion cubic meters (bcm), Reuters reported Tuesday. Reuters' calculations were based on data from the Turk...
www.themoscowtimes.com
January 1, 2026 at 12:06 AM
Europe's decoupling from Gazprom signals a long-term structural challenge for #Russia. Whilst gas can be sold elsewhere, such markets are distant, requiring logistic networks that reduces its competitiveness against alternate suppliers.
Russia's fiscal woes won't end with the war.
Russia's fiscal woes won't end with the war.
Strikes by Saudi on UAE arms shipments rapidly escalated tensions in #Yemen. Such actions between regional players suggests a low level of trust and communication, with diverging geopolitical objectives.
This does not bode well for the type of economic cooperation required for Yemen's recovery.
This does not bode well for the type of economic cooperation required for Yemen's recovery.
Saudi Arabia backs 24-hour ultimatum for UAE forces to withdraw from Yemen
UAE says it will voluntarily withdraw 'counterterrorism' units, its only remaining military force in Yemen.
www.aljazeera.com
December 30, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Strikes by Saudi on UAE arms shipments rapidly escalated tensions in #Yemen. Such actions between regional players suggests a low level of trust and communication, with diverging geopolitical objectives.
This does not bode well for the type of economic cooperation required for Yemen's recovery.
This does not bode well for the type of economic cooperation required for Yemen's recovery.
There is value in defence companies seeking to test laser air-defence systems establishing field testing sites at energy facilities in #Ukraine, not least due to the energy requirements of such systems. Their effectiveness will be less than ideal, yet will provide additional protection.
'It’s a second front line' — The Ukrainian power plant workers battling to make repairs under Russian attacks
"It’s an interesting feeling during an air attack. Danger, danger, and again danger," says Yurii, a Ukrainian energy worker, from the control center of a war-scarred thermal power plant.
Yurii works ...
kyivindependent.com
December 29, 2025 at 10:57 PM
There is value in defence companies seeking to test laser air-defence systems establishing field testing sites at energy facilities in #Ukraine, not least due to the energy requirements of such systems. Their effectiveness will be less than ideal, yet will provide additional protection.
Industries in #Myanmar suffer from the Junta's control of foreign exchange and the pariah status the country receives. Whilst the Junta can do little about its status, leaving government aside, it needs to ease FX controls on importers if manufacturing is to survive.
It won't.
It won't.
CTGA: Myanmar garment sector needs raw materials processing factories - Global New Light Of Myanmar
Myanmar’s garment sector can generate foreign revenue of over five billion US dollar yet it lacks raw material processing factories to cut high import and
www.gnlm.com.mm
December 28, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Industries in #Myanmar suffer from the Junta's control of foreign exchange and the pariah status the country receives. Whilst the Junta can do little about its status, leaving government aside, it needs to ease FX controls on importers if manufacturing is to survive.
It won't.
It won't.
A joint force to fight insurgents in the #Sahel has merit on paper given the lack of resources Mali, Niger & Burkina Faso possess. It would allow Russia to focus its limited support. An issue will be where this force deploys, as 5,000 is a small amount of men for a very large area.
Sahel summit: What is the biggest challenge facing the region?
Sahel countries launch a joint battalion to fight armed groups as they boost ties with Russia amid rising insecurity.
www.aljazeera.com
December 27, 2025 at 10:17 PM
A joint force to fight insurgents in the #Sahel has merit on paper given the lack of resources Mali, Niger & Burkina Faso possess. It would allow Russia to focus its limited support. An issue will be where this force deploys, as 5,000 is a small amount of men for a very large area.
The large prisoner swap in #Yemen is an important confidence building measure as parties seek to end the conflict.
The recent detention of UN staff suggests that whilst confidence building steps are being taken, there are actors within the Houthi regime that see such rapport as a threat.
The recent detention of UN staff suggests that whilst confidence building steps are being taken, there are actors within the Houthi regime that see such rapport as a threat.
Houthis, Yemen government say to exchange nearly 3,000 prisoners
UN rights chief Volker Turk, meanwhile, urged the rebels to "immediately and unconditionally" release dozens of UN staffers detained in the country.
www.newarab.com
December 23, 2025 at 9:40 PM
The large prisoner swap in #Yemen is an important confidence building measure as parties seek to end the conflict.
The recent detention of UN staff suggests that whilst confidence building steps are being taken, there are actors within the Houthi regime that see such rapport as a threat.
The recent detention of UN staff suggests that whilst confidence building steps are being taken, there are actors within the Houthi regime that see such rapport as a threat.
The dismantling of criminal industries that act as fiscal crutches is a healthy indicator for #Syria. North Korean crypto theft and Myanmar's scam centres are examples of criminal co-dependency that fiscally strapped authoritarian regimes engage in. Syria appears to wish to avoid that fate.
Syria’s government curbing once-booming Captagon industry: UN report
Authorities have shuttered drug factories that were cash pipeline for former ruler Bashar al-Assad, UN report.
www.aljazeera.com
December 22, 2025 at 11:04 PM
The dismantling of criminal industries that act as fiscal crutches is a healthy indicator for #Syria. North Korean crypto theft and Myanmar's scam centres are examples of criminal co-dependency that fiscally strapped authoritarian regimes engage in. Syria appears to wish to avoid that fate.
Sanctions are driving down the price of Ural Crude to levels that have material impacts on the ability of #Russia to wage war. The urgent need for funds is likely to see the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund exhausted in 2026, should low prices be sustained.
Russian Oil Prices Sink Below $35 Per Barrel - The Moscow Times
Russian oil prices continue to plunge under the pressure of U.S. sanctions that have disrupted established export flows to India and China.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Sanctions are driving down the price of Ural Crude to levels that have material impacts on the ability of #Russia to wage war. The urgent need for funds is likely to see the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund exhausted in 2026, should low prices be sustained.
The fiscal underpinning of #Ukraine is critical. It places Ukraine in a position where it may fiscally outlast Russia.
This will not be well received in the Kremlin, whose fiscal position is increasingly precarious and whose soldiery is far more motivated by money.
This will not be well received in the Kremlin, whose fiscal position is increasingly precarious and whose soldiery is far more motivated by money.
EU leaders agree on $105 billion loan to buffer Ukraine’s finances, fail on Russian assets plan
European leaders have approved an interest-free loan for Ukraine, providing a financial lifeline and securing a large portion of the cash-strapped country's financing needs for the next two years.
kyivindependent.com
December 20, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The fiscal underpinning of #Ukraine is critical. It places Ukraine in a position where it may fiscally outlast Russia.
This will not be well received in the Kremlin, whose fiscal position is increasingly precarious and whose soldiery is far more motivated by money.
This will not be well received in the Kremlin, whose fiscal position is increasingly precarious and whose soldiery is far more motivated by money.
The continued press-ganging of Russian speakers into the scam centres of #Myanmar is another indicator that anti-scam actions by the Junta and its allies are purely performative.
The Junta and allied groups will not move upon these criminal activities as long as they remain fiscally important.
The Junta and allied groups will not move upon these criminal activities as long as they remain fiscally important.
More Russians Seized for Forced Labor in Myanmar Scam Compounds
Three more Russian nationals have been abducted for forced labor at online scam centers in Myanmar, Russia’s state-owned TASS media agency reported on Tuesday, citing the Russian Embassy in Yangon.The...
www.crphsupportgroup.no
December 19, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The continued press-ganging of Russian speakers into the scam centres of #Myanmar is another indicator that anti-scam actions by the Junta and its allies are purely performative.
The Junta and allied groups will not move upon these criminal activities as long as they remain fiscally important.
The Junta and allied groups will not move upon these criminal activities as long as they remain fiscally important.
Russian sanctions and Chinese trade disputes with the US create economic opportunities for #NorthKorea. Capital from arms exports to support the Russo-Ukraine War is financing imports from China.
This doesn't overcome inefficiencies inherent in Pyongyang's system, however does ease the pressure
This doesn't overcome inefficiencies inherent in Pyongyang's system, however does ease the pressure
North Korea-China trade rockets to six-year high, months after Kim-Xi summit | NK News
Trade between North Korea and China reached a new six-year high in November after rebounding from an October slump, thanks to a sharp increase in both imports and exports, official data shows. Bilater...
www.nknews.org
December 18, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Russian sanctions and Chinese trade disputes with the US create economic opportunities for #NorthKorea. Capital from arms exports to support the Russo-Ukraine War is financing imports from China.
This doesn't overcome inefficiencies inherent in Pyongyang's system, however does ease the pressure
This doesn't overcome inefficiencies inherent in Pyongyang's system, however does ease the pressure
With oil set to flow again from Heglig in #Sudan, it remains unclear as to how revenues are to be shared between the RSF and SAF, if at all. The South Sudanese army control the fields as a neutral force, however RSF control the broader area and SAF the pipeline and export terminal.
South Sudan officials discuss oil flow, visit Port Sudan export terminals - Sudan Tribune
December 15, 2025 (PORT SUDAN) – Senior South Sudanese government officials on Monday discussed the flow of crude oil exports with Sudan and visited the oil export terminals in Port Sudan, eastern Sud...
sudantribune.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:55 PM
With oil set to flow again from Heglig in #Sudan, it remains unclear as to how revenues are to be shared between the RSF and SAF, if at all. The South Sudanese army control the fields as a neutral force, however RSF control the broader area and SAF the pipeline and export terminal.
The release of political prisoners in #Belarus in exchange for sanctions relief indicates the level of economic pressure Minsk is under, however also increases the economic value of political prisoners.
Care must be taken when other sanctioned authoritarian regimes seek similar economic relief.
Care must be taken when other sanctioned authoritarian regimes seek similar economic relief.
Belarus frees Nobel prize laureate Bialiatski, opposition figure Kolesnikova as US lifts sanctions | CNN
Belarus freed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, key opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova and dozens of other prisoners on Saturday, capping two days of talks with Washington aimed at improvin...
edition.cnn.com
December 16, 2025 at 9:34 PM
The release of political prisoners in #Belarus in exchange for sanctions relief indicates the level of economic pressure Minsk is under, however also increases the economic value of political prisoners.
Care must be taken when other sanctioned authoritarian regimes seek similar economic relief.
Care must be taken when other sanctioned authoritarian regimes seek similar economic relief.