banner
econai.bsky.social
@econai.bsky.social
📢 NOVEMBER UPDATE

🇻🇪 Venezuela: Both our models are highlighting an increase in armed conflict risk. The text model has been signaling its rise since August, when U.S. warships began deploying off the country’s northern coast. The best model only spiked in October, after the onset of fatalities.
December 4, 2025 at 10:50 AM
📢 DATA UPDATE
🇦🇴 Angola: Both models show a rise in conflict risk since July, when protests broke out after the government raised fuel prices. The unrest turned violent, resulting in several deaths. Our subnational map shows Luanda, where the protests began, as the area most at risk of riots.
November 25, 2025 at 8:05 AM
📢 OCTOBER UPDATE
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: The text model suggests an increase in the risk of conflict and violence — a trend not clearly mirrored by the best model. The levels of risk it estimates are also higher, suggesting it may be capturing latent tensions not yet visible in other data sources.
November 5, 2025 at 11:40 AM
📢 DATA UPDATE!


🇶🇦 Qatar: Our latest update shows both models predicting an increase in conflict risk. Interestingly, the text-based model was already signaling rising tensions before the best model caught up.

See the latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
October 23, 2025 at 11:00 AM
SEPTEMBER UPDATE
🇪🇷 Eritrea: Most of our forecast models are signaling growing instability in the region.
This likely reflects ongoing border tensions with Ethiopia, lingering frictions following the Tigray war, and the risk of spillover from neighboring conflicts such as Sudan.
conflictforecast.org
October 6, 2025 at 11:04 AM
📢 DATA UPDATE!
🇬🇭 Ghana: Our models show a sharp rise in conflict risk this month. Part of the Savannah region has already been flagged for riot risk, and the North East, near Burkina Faso, shows elevated risk of violence linked to jihadist activity.
🔗 conflictforecast.org
September 25, 2025 at 1:24 PM
📢 AUGUST UPDATE!
🇵🇭 In the Philippines, long-term armed conflict risk continues to decline. The latest update shows a small uptick in the text-based model, reflecting broader regional tensions. While the overall trend remains downward, caution is warranted, as the environment is not yet fully stable.
September 4, 2025 at 1:41 PM
📢 DATA UPDATE!

🇮🇷 Iran: Since 2022, our text model has shown a steady rise in conflict risk, reflecting a slow build-up of tensions.

Though it led to external rather than internal conflict, the trend highlights how our system can pick up early warning signs.

🔗 conflictforecast.org
July 22, 2025 at 8:28 AM
📢 MAY UPDATE

🇧🇴 Bolivia: Our text model has flagged rising conflict risk since mid-2024—an early warning now reflected in mounting unrest.

Riot risk is elevated in several regions, which appear as hotspots on our map.

With elections approaching in August, the situation warrants close monitoring.
June 13, 2025 at 12:27 PM
📢 DATA UPDATE

🇹🇬 Togo: Our latest update shows both the text and best models predicting a progressive increase in conflict risk since 2022.
As shown on the map, the highest risk is concentrated in northern Togo, the area affected by recent attacks and the broader regional insecurity pattern.
May 23, 2025 at 1:32 PM
📢 APRIL UPDATE

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Our latest update shows a noticeable increase in the risk of armed conflict and violence.

Both our best and text models point to this rise, aligning with growing tensions linked to the conflict with the Houthis.

Explore our latest forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
May 2, 2025 at 12:41 PM
📢 DATA UPDATE


🇫🇷 France: Our latest models show a historic high in predicted violence risk, with a sharp spike since February.

🔺 Last week’s prison attacks—in Marseille, Nanterre, Nîmes & more—seem to confirm rising tensions.

🗺️ NEW: Explore subnational risk—Bouches-du-Rhône stands out.
April 23, 2025 at 11:03 AM
📢 MARCH UPDATE!
🇹🇷 Turkey: Our latest conflict forecast highlights an intriguing divergence—while our best model suggests a decline in conflict risk, our text model has been pointing to a steady rise for months, starting before the recent political crisis in March.
🌍: conflictforecast.org
April 2, 2025 at 9:11 AM
📢 DATA UPDATE!
🇿🇦 South Africa: Our latest update, now including all data up to February, shows both models predicting a sharp rise in conflict risk. Interestingly, events unfolding in March—like the dismissal of South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S.—seem to confirm this trend.
conflictforecast.org
March 24, 2025 at 3:07 PM
FEBRUARY UPDATE!

🇦🇲 Armenia: Following Azerbaijan's offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and mass displacement, our forecasts show a significant decrease in risk—something that is uncommon after a conflict outbreak. While this shift is promising, the situation remains fragile, and uncertainty persists.
March 4, 2025 at 11:11 AM
DATA UPDATE!

🇵🇰 Pakistan: Conflict risk has been rising gradually since 2022—a concerning long-term trend. Persistent terrorist attacks, economic struggles, and climate threats are driving this vulnerability.

See our latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
February 25, 2025 at 11:11 AM
JANUARY UPDATE!
Escaping armed conflict is rarely smooth. Our models capture this uncertainty, showing gradual or volatile transitions—like in Afghanistan. As countries fluctuate between conflict states, our forecasts show jumps, highlighting the difficulty of fully escaping conflict.
February 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
DATA UPDATE!
This month, a surprising pattern has emerged: the world appears more polarized, with a clearer divide between countries at high risk and those deemed safer by our model. It could be the result of its learning process or a shift in the importance of key features. Stay tuned for updates!
January 31, 2025 at 5:51 PM
DECEMBER UPDATE!
🇰🇵 North Korea: Both text and best models show rising tensions and conflict risk, driven by the involvement in the Russia/Ukraine war and South Korea's martial law.
Yesterday’s hypersonic missile launch confirms the upward trend.
🌐 See global conflict forecasts: conflictforecast.org
January 7, 2025 at 10:16 AM
GATHERING OUR FAMILY BEFORE THE BREAK ❄️🎄

This week, we connected as the EconAI team—meetings, seminars, dinners. Rare moments to reflect and close the year together.

As we grow, we remember 120M+ displaced people. Consider donating to: donate.unhcr.org/int/en/general

Thank you
December 20, 2024 at 2:43 PM
OCTOBER UPDATE
🇪🇬 Egypt: our best and text models are currently pointing towards opposite trends of conflict risks in the country. This should be watched closely in the next months!
conflictforecast.org
November 8, 2024 at 2:32 PM
DATA UPDATE!

🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: The country is at an historical low for conflict risk!

This is a great example of country getting out of conflict risk, which also helps train our model.

conflictforecast.org
October 24, 2024 at 8:11 AM
SEPTEMBER UPDATE

🇪🇺 Europe: the whole continent is facing an increase in conflict risk, in relation with terror attacks and the growing advances by Russia in Ukraine.

The case of the Czech Republic 🇨🇿 illustrates this trend well.

See our forecasts with global coverage: conflictforecast.org
October 2, 2024 at 9:52 AM
DATA UPDATE
🇩🇪 Germany: the best model’s risk of violence spiked lately, in relation with the recent attacks, whereas the text model was correctly anticipating it. We can see a similar trend pre-2017 when the text model was predicting a rise of violence before the Christmas market attack in Berlin.
September 23, 2024 at 2:32 PM
AUGUST UPDATE!

🇯🇲 Jamaica: the country’s risk recently spiked as crime and gun violence intensified. On August 14, a 14-days state of emergency was declared in reaction to two separate shootings that happened on the same day.

See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
September 3, 2024 at 2:46 PM