🇻🇪 Venezuela: Both our models are highlighting an increase in armed conflict risk. The text model has been signaling its rise since August, when U.S. warships began deploying off the country’s northern coast. The best model only spiked in October, after the onset of fatalities.
🇻🇪 Venezuela: Both our models are highlighting an increase in armed conflict risk. The text model has been signaling its rise since August, when U.S. warships began deploying off the country’s northern coast. The best model only spiked in October, after the onset of fatalities.
🇦🇴 Angola: Both models show a rise in conflict risk since July, when protests broke out after the government raised fuel prices. The unrest turned violent, resulting in several deaths. Our subnational map shows Luanda, where the protests began, as the area most at risk of riots.
🇦🇴 Angola: Both models show a rise in conflict risk since July, when protests broke out after the government raised fuel prices. The unrest turned violent, resulting in several deaths. Our subnational map shows Luanda, where the protests began, as the area most at risk of riots.
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: The text model suggests an increase in the risk of conflict and violence — a trend not clearly mirrored by the best model. The levels of risk it estimates are also higher, suggesting it may be capturing latent tensions not yet visible in other data sources.
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: The text model suggests an increase in the risk of conflict and violence — a trend not clearly mirrored by the best model. The levels of risk it estimates are also higher, suggesting it may be capturing latent tensions not yet visible in other data sources.
🇶🇦 Qatar: Our latest update shows both models predicting an increase in conflict risk. Interestingly, the text-based model was already signaling rising tensions before the best model caught up.
See the latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇶🇦 Qatar: Our latest update shows both models predicting an increase in conflict risk. Interestingly, the text-based model was already signaling rising tensions before the best model caught up.
See the latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇪🇷 Eritrea: Most of our forecast models are signaling growing instability in the region.
This likely reflects ongoing border tensions with Ethiopia, lingering frictions following the Tigray war, and the risk of spillover from neighboring conflicts such as Sudan.
conflictforecast.org
🇪🇷 Eritrea: Most of our forecast models are signaling growing instability in the region.
This likely reflects ongoing border tensions with Ethiopia, lingering frictions following the Tigray war, and the risk of spillover from neighboring conflicts such as Sudan.
conflictforecast.org
🇬🇭 Ghana: Our models show a sharp rise in conflict risk this month. Part of the Savannah region has already been flagged for riot risk, and the North East, near Burkina Faso, shows elevated risk of violence linked to jihadist activity.
🔗 conflictforecast.org
🇬🇭 Ghana: Our models show a sharp rise in conflict risk this month. Part of the Savannah region has already been flagged for riot risk, and the North East, near Burkina Faso, shows elevated risk of violence linked to jihadist activity.
🔗 conflictforecast.org
🇵🇭 In the Philippines, long-term armed conflict risk continues to decline. The latest update shows a small uptick in the text-based model, reflecting broader regional tensions. While the overall trend remains downward, caution is warranted, as the environment is not yet fully stable.
🇵🇭 In the Philippines, long-term armed conflict risk continues to decline. The latest update shows a small uptick in the text-based model, reflecting broader regional tensions. While the overall trend remains downward, caution is warranted, as the environment is not yet fully stable.
We just updated our webpage to include the latest UCDP data on fatalities.
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
We just updated our webpage to include the latest UCDP data on fatalities.
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
Our latest forecasts now incorporate newspaper data from July!
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌍 : conflictforecast.org
Our latest forecasts now incorporate newspaper data from July!
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌍 : conflictforecast.org
🇮🇷 Iran: Since 2022, our text model has shown a steady rise in conflict risk, reflecting a slow build-up of tensions.
Though it led to external rather than internal conflict, the trend highlights how our system can pick up early warning signs.
🔗 conflictforecast.org
🇮🇷 Iran: Since 2022, our text model has shown a steady rise in conflict risk, reflecting a slow build-up of tensions.
Though it led to external rather than internal conflict, the trend highlights how our system can pick up early warning signs.
🔗 conflictforecast.org
Our latest forecasts now incorporate newspaper data from June!
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌍 : conflictforecast.org
Our latest forecasts now incorporate newspaper data from June!
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌍 : conflictforecast.org
🇧🇴 Bolivia: Our text model has flagged rising conflict risk since mid-2024—an early warning now reflected in mounting unrest.
Riot risk is elevated in several regions, which appear as hotspots on our map.
With elections approaching in August, the situation warrants close monitoring.
🇧🇴 Bolivia: Our text model has flagged rising conflict risk since mid-2024—an early warning now reflected in mounting unrest.
Riot risk is elevated in several regions, which appear as hotspots on our map.
With elections approaching in August, the situation warrants close monitoring.
🇹🇬 Togo: Our latest update shows both the text and best models predicting a progressive increase in conflict risk since 2022.
As shown on the map, the highest risk is concentrated in northern Togo, the area affected by recent attacks and the broader regional insecurity pattern.
🇹🇬 Togo: Our latest update shows both the text and best models predicting a progressive increase in conflict risk since 2022.
As shown on the map, the highest risk is concentrated in northern Togo, the area affected by recent attacks and the broader regional insecurity pattern.
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Our latest update shows a noticeable increase in the risk of armed conflict and violence.
Both our best and text models point to this rise, aligning with growing tensions linked to the conflict with the Houthis.
Explore our latest forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Our latest update shows a noticeable increase in the risk of armed conflict and violence.
Both our best and text models point to this rise, aligning with growing tensions linked to the conflict with the Houthis.
Explore our latest forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇫🇷 France: Our latest models show a historic high in predicted violence risk, with a sharp spike since February.
🔺 Last week’s prison attacks—in Marseille, Nanterre, Nîmes & more—seem to confirm rising tensions.
🗺️ NEW: Explore subnational risk—Bouches-du-Rhône stands out.
🇫🇷 France: Our latest models show a historic high in predicted violence risk, with a sharp spike since February.
🔺 Last week’s prison attacks—in Marseille, Nanterre, Nîmes & more—seem to confirm rising tensions.
🗺️ NEW: Explore subnational risk—Bouches-du-Rhône stands out.
🇹🇷 Turkey: Our latest conflict forecast highlights an intriguing divergence—while our best model suggests a decline in conflict risk, our text model has been pointing to a steady rise for months, starting before the recent political crisis in March.
🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇹🇷 Turkey: Our latest conflict forecast highlights an intriguing divergence—while our best model suggests a decline in conflict risk, our text model has been pointing to a steady rise for months, starting before the recent political crisis in March.
🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇿🇦 South Africa: Our latest update, now including all data up to February, shows both models predicting a sharp rise in conflict risk. Interestingly, events unfolding in March—like the dismissal of South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S.—seem to confirm this trend.
conflictforecast.org
🇿🇦 South Africa: Our latest update, now including all data up to February, shows both models predicting a sharp rise in conflict risk. Interestingly, events unfolding in March—like the dismissal of South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S.—seem to confirm this trend.
conflictforecast.org
🇦🇲 Armenia: Following Azerbaijan's offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and mass displacement, our forecasts show a significant decrease in risk—something that is uncommon after a conflict outbreak. While this shift is promising, the situation remains fragile, and uncertainty persists.
🇦🇲 Armenia: Following Azerbaijan's offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and mass displacement, our forecasts show a significant decrease in risk—something that is uncommon after a conflict outbreak. While this shift is promising, the situation remains fragile, and uncertainty persists.
🇵🇰 Pakistan: Conflict risk has been rising gradually since 2022—a concerning long-term trend. Persistent terrorist attacks, economic struggles, and climate threats are driving this vulnerability.
See our latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
🇵🇰 Pakistan: Conflict risk has been rising gradually since 2022—a concerning long-term trend. Persistent terrorist attacks, economic struggles, and climate threats are driving this vulnerability.
See our latest conflict forecasts 🌍: conflictforecast.org
Escaping armed conflict is rarely smooth. Our models capture this uncertainty, showing gradual or volatile transitions—like in Afghanistan. As countries fluctuate between conflict states, our forecasts show jumps, highlighting the difficulty of fully escaping conflict.
Escaping armed conflict is rarely smooth. Our models capture this uncertainty, showing gradual or volatile transitions—like in Afghanistan. As countries fluctuate between conflict states, our forecasts show jumps, highlighting the difficulty of fully escaping conflict.
This month, a surprising pattern has emerged: the world appears more polarized, with a clearer divide between countries at high risk and those deemed safer by our model. It could be the result of its learning process or a shift in the importance of key features. Stay tuned for updates!
This month, a surprising pattern has emerged: the world appears more polarized, with a clearer divide between countries at high risk and those deemed safer by our model. It could be the result of its learning process or a shift in the importance of key features. Stay tuned for updates!
🇰🇵 North Korea: Both text and best models show rising tensions and conflict risk, driven by the involvement in the Russia/Ukraine war and South Korea's martial law.
Yesterday’s hypersonic missile launch confirms the upward trend.
🌐 See global conflict forecasts: conflictforecast.org
🇰🇵 North Korea: Both text and best models show rising tensions and conflict risk, driven by the involvement in the Russia/Ukraine war and South Korea's martial law.
Yesterday’s hypersonic missile launch confirms the upward trend.
🌐 See global conflict forecasts: conflictforecast.org
We just updated our webpage to include the latest UCDP data on fatalities.
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
We just updated our webpage to include the latest UCDP data on fatalities.
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
This week, we connected as the EconAI team—meetings, seminars, dinners. Rare moments to reflect and close the year together.
As we grow, we remember 120M+ displaced people. Consider donating to: donate.unhcr.org/int/en/general
Thank you
This week, we connected as the EconAI team—meetings, seminars, dinners. Rare moments to reflect and close the year together.
As we grow, we remember 120M+ displaced people. Consider donating to: donate.unhcr.org/int/en/general
Thank you
This month, we went on a deep dive in the differences between the text and the best model! See our full analysis on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org
This month, we went on a deep dive in the differences between the text and the best model! See our full analysis on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
See our conflict forecasts with global coverage 🌐 : conflictforecast.org