Any recommendations on role of wealth effects in driving recent (post-2008) US growth?

Struck that average real consumption is up about a third (left) while real terms wealth is up about 80% since 2009 (right). Or $4trn extra C for $77bn extra wealth (all real)

9/ That last point—communication—touches on the elephant in the room: if there’s lots to learn from Biden’s admin, can we also learn from the Dems’ failure to secure re-election?

8/ That gives us our “lessons for the UK on a slide”:

7/ Finally, we look at Biden’s supply-side agenda: lessons on industrial policy, place-based policy, protectionism, and paths not taken (like the early care economy push)—as Gene Sperling (L), @briancdeese.bsky.social, and @jaredb-econ.bsky.social set out in their interviews.

6/ Third, the US has long outperformed the UK/Europe on productivity—and that gap’s been growing since the mid-2010s. We cite Erixon, Guinea and du Roy, and Deming, Summers & Ong on the return of US TFP growth, and the UK’s tech gap (so far) relative to US.

5/ As
@adamposen.bsky.social (L) noted, many Dems and allies worried in early 2021 about the downsides of job churn. But @hboushey.bsky.social, @juliesulabor.bsky.social and others showed how supports (expanded UI, pro-worker orders) helped raise both wages and productivity.

4/ Second, we think the inflation debate can obscure the real lesson: the value of dynamism and flexibility when you “run the economy hot.” Job creation/destruction in the US pulled even further ahead of the UK post-pandemic.

3/ First, our interviewees differed on whether the political cost of the American Rescue Plan outweighed the economic gains (jobs, productivity). No one disputed that, at the margin, it nudged up inflation in ‘21/’22. See
@larrysummers.bsky.social (L) and Lael Brainard (R):

OBR still leading the pack for optimism about real GDP in 2029, even after downward revisions; and RDEL growth path has become *more* front-loaded over the parliament - both should raise eyebrows about whether today's forecast will survive contact with (i) reality and (ii) politics

The Employment White Paper is out.

It's got the crispest summary of the gov's approach to more, better jobs I've seen; a welcome focus on devolution (after decades of DWP as a hold-out); and - for Whitehall watchers - a bumper four-way foreword:

www.gov.uk/government/p...