David Teter
@dtc94133.bsky.social
Engineering PhD. Professional Civil Engineer. Former nuclear strike advisor and intelligence analyst. Likes to chat about cars (JDM and Porsches), motorcycles, horology, and shooting film. Loves cats, hates facists.
https://github.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP
https://github.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP
LOL. Took me a minute. Nice one, dad.
November 15, 2025 at 4:44 PM
LOL. Took me a minute. Nice one, dad.
Yup. IMHO, the Soviets (and Russians) have always been highly paranoid and significantly overestimated US defense capabilities which leads to nonsense like Poseidon or Burevestnik or worse. There is no way in hell that we could successfully shoot down a R-36M2 (SS-18 Mod 5) let alone anything newer.
November 15, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Yup. IMHO, the Soviets (and Russians) have always been highly paranoid and significantly overestimated US defense capabilities which leads to nonsense like Poseidon or Burevestnik or worse. There is no way in hell that we could successfully shoot down a R-36M2 (SS-18 Mod 5) let alone anything newer.
Agreed.
Also, IMHO, strategic missile defense is stupid. Offense always wins.
Also, IMHO, strategic missile defense is stupid. Offense always wins.
November 15, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Agreed.
Also, IMHO, strategic missile defense is stupid. Offense always wins.
Also, IMHO, strategic missile defense is stupid. Offense always wins.
Also, my point about "high-grading" means that DOE/DTRA/etc. do keep records of which specific warheads have been updated with the latest limited life components as well as other issues that might have surety or reliability engineers concerned about their performance but are not yet at ALTs.
November 15, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Also, my point about "high-grading" means that DOE/DTRA/etc. do keep records of which specific warheads have been updated with the latest limited life components as well as other issues that might have surety or reliability engineers concerned about their performance but are not yet at ALTs.
My long winded point is that we shouldn't do a declarative test unless we are >99% certain that the warhead will perform within specs. Otherwise, oh shit.
November 15, 2025 at 1:13 AM
My long winded point is that we shouldn't do a declarative test unless we are >99% certain that the warhead will perform within specs. Otherwise, oh shit.
Lots of things that can go wrong in a weapon (not just the warhead). Some can be critical but pretty mundane and others we may not have discovered yet. Things age and there is also the point that we never conducted enough tests of war reserve warheads to really understand reliability. Cheers. (2/2)
November 15, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Lots of things that can go wrong in a weapon (not just the warhead). Some can be critical but pretty mundane and others we may not have discovered yet. Things age and there is also the point that we never conducted enough tests of war reserve warheads to really understand reliability. Cheers. (2/2)
Hi Dylan - I respectfully disagree. The more I learned about nuclear weapons design and testing (TS/RD & S/RD) the more I came to believe that there was a lot of art ("engineering) instead of science involved. Perhaps if we did subcrits the "Russian Way" we might know better. (1/2)
November 15, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Hi Dylan - I respectfully disagree. The more I learned about nuclear weapons design and testing (TS/RD & S/RD) the more I came to believe that there was a lot of art ("engineering) instead of science involved. Perhaps if we did subcrits the "Russian Way" we might know better. (1/2)
I suspect that nothing will come of this.
November 14, 2025 at 10:56 PM
I suspect that nothing will come of this.
We've lost the capability to do anything except to make the ground shake. but what if it doesn't detonate? In a past life I got to review every single test (including dudw). I'm not that confident that a war reserve warhead is reliable. They could high-grade and put in new DT gas/etc., but still...
November 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
We've lost the capability to do anything except to make the ground shake. but what if it doesn't detonate? In a past life I got to review every single test (including dudw). I'm not that confident that a war reserve warhead is reliable. They could high-grade and put in new DT gas/etc., but still...
IMHO, this is Nobel prize-level stuff. :)
November 11, 2025 at 4:27 AM
IMHO, this is Nobel prize-level stuff. :)
Ironically, Alex's own work is probably making him a primary target.
November 11, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Ironically, Alex's own work is probably making him a primary target.
I swear that I did a structural inspection of this house (or at least the same floor plan). Hope that you don’t live in San Ramon, CA.
November 10, 2025 at 3:26 PM
I swear that I did a structural inspection of this house (or at least the same floor plan). Hope that you don’t live in San Ramon, CA.
Guilty for thinking too small. Should have asked for a G6.
November 6, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Guilty for thinking too small. Should have asked for a G6.
The FAA did say that they might reduce flights at Teterboro Airport which is the hub for many (most?) of the private jet traffic for NYC.
November 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The FAA did say that they might reduce flights at Teterboro Airport which is the hub for many (most?) of the private jet traffic for NYC.
The scenario made no sense to me. Also, DSP just doesn't "miss a launch". There are also other sensors in the ITW/AA network which would have caught a launch. I didn't buy the bit that the NCA had to initiate a MAO before the warhead even detonated. Also, how did they get to Site R so quick?
November 5, 2025 at 7:11 PM
The scenario made no sense to me. Also, DSP just doesn't "miss a launch". There are also other sensors in the ITW/AA network which would have caught a launch. I didn't buy the bit that the NCA had to initiate a MAO before the warhead even detonated. Also, how did they get to Site R so quick?
Looks like I forgot the (2/2).
After a couple of 24-hour days, we came to the end game. The "big board" displayed multiple inbounds for Offutt. Everyone was excited to go home. Each of the inbounds failed to detonate to keep the exercise going. When they finally had a detonation, everybody cheered.
After a couple of 24-hour days, we came to the end game. The "big board" displayed multiple inbounds for Offutt. Everyone was excited to go home. Each of the inbounds failed to detonate to keep the exercise going. When they finally had a detonation, everybody cheered.
November 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Looks like I forgot the (2/2).
After a couple of 24-hour days, we came to the end game. The "big board" displayed multiple inbounds for Offutt. Everyone was excited to go home. Each of the inbounds failed to detonate to keep the exercise going. When they finally had a detonation, everybody cheered.
After a couple of 24-hour days, we came to the end game. The "big board" displayed multiple inbounds for Offutt. Everyone was excited to go home. Each of the inbounds failed to detonate to keep the exercise going. When they finally had a detonation, everybody cheered.
Hi Hans. Hope you are well. I had some “fun times” during Global Thunder. My (faltering) memories include showing up in the Air Room for GT and the power went out. Temps climbed and I wondered if we had been HMP’ed. Nah. Just crap infrastructure. Later on, after a couple of 24-hour days (1/2)
November 5, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Hi Hans. Hope you are well. I had some “fun times” during Global Thunder. My (faltering) memories include showing up in the Air Room for GT and the power went out. Temps climbed and I wondered if we had been HMP’ed. Nah. Just crap infrastructure. Later on, after a couple of 24-hour days (1/2)
I’m so happy for Zohran.
Fuck Chuck.
Fuck Chuck.
November 5, 2025 at 3:40 AM
I’m so happy for Zohran.
Fuck Chuck.
Fuck Chuck.
Totally against this administration's activities, but literally every classified program I was ever a part of (SIOP, SCI, SAPs) had a NDA. Is this something different?
October 29, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Totally against this administration's activities, but literally every classified program I was ever a part of (SIOP, SCI, SAPs) had a NDA. Is this something different?
Former nuclear strike advisor and IC guy here. I live in SF. Fuck these asshats. If ICE shows up, I will take PTO just to protest.
October 20, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Former nuclear strike advisor and IC guy here. I live in SF. Fuck these asshats. If ICE shows up, I will take PTO just to protest.