Dan Szymborski
@dszymborski.fangraphs.com
Senior Writer for FanGraphs, ESPN contributor, data consultant, ZiPSetician, gamer, talkative, exasperated/ing, possibly the worst. BBWAA, Digital Dandy.
Nope! The power of pseudo-random number generation.
November 14, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Nope! The power of pseudo-random number generation.
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x @fangraphs.com Depth Chart for the next ZiPS team, the Athletics.
November 13, 2025 at 7:19 PM
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x @fangraphs.com Depth Chart for the next ZiPS team, the Athletics.
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x @fangraphs.com Depth Chart for the first team to go in the ZiPS projections in 2026, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Obviously, this is not the 2026 *team* projection and the roster will have quite a few changes since it's, well, November.
Obviously, this is not the 2026 *team* projection and the roster will have quite a few changes since it's, well, November.
November 12, 2025 at 6:21 PM
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x @fangraphs.com Depth Chart for the first team to go in the ZiPS projections in 2026, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Obviously, this is not the 2026 *team* projection and the roster will have quite a few changes since it's, well, November.
Obviously, this is not the 2026 *team* projection and the roster will have quite a few changes since it's, well, November.
I'm sure the Brosnan tsunami surfing scene was 100% realistic and the CGI will age amazingly.
November 11, 2025 at 5:56 PM
I'm sure the Brosnan tsunami surfing scene was 100% realistic and the CGI will age amazingly.
I don't know why people get my first name wrong more often than my last name. Not mad, it's just really odd that after "Szymborski" the most popular boys name the year I was born woudl be the hiccup!
November 11, 2025 at 1:22 AM
I don't know why people get my first name wrong more often than my last name. Not mad, it's just really odd that after "Szymborski" the most popular boys name the year I was born woudl be the hiccup!
It's always amusing when people think pitchers from the 1950s had invincible arms, when the attrition rate was terrible. And it was known at the time, and there were even predictions in the future that have almost come to pass by 2025.
(This is from 1959)
(This is from 1959)
November 8, 2025 at 4:57 PM
It's always amusing when people think pitchers from the 1950s had invincible arms, when the attrition rate was terrible. And it was known at the time, and there were even predictions in the future that have almost come to pass by 2025.
(This is from 1959)
(This is from 1959)
Post you from a different era (1990s).
This one since I still had the file right in front of me.
This one since I still had the file right in front of me.
November 7, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Post you from a different era (1990s).
This one since I still had the file right in front of me.
This one since I still had the file right in front of me.
I'd really like to see what Polymarket is theoretically considering a finding that Jesus Christ returned. Does he have to have a press conference about it?
November 7, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I'd really like to see what Polymarket is theoretically considering a finding that Jesus Christ returned. Does he have to have a press conference about it?
He never quite understood how comfort worked.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
He never quite understood how comfort worked.
Had to put my oldest cat, my slow-witted-but-friendly tux cat, to sleep this afternoon. You always think that it'll get easier, but it never really does. He had had early stage kidney disease that was being managed, but at 17, kidneys can suddenly go down really quickly.
October 23, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Had to put my oldest cat, my slow-witted-but-friendly tux cat, to sleep this afternoon. You always think that it'll get easier, but it never really does. He had had early stage kidney disease that was being managed, but at 17, kidneys can suddenly go down really quickly.
But if you instead keep R steady instead of HR rate for the home run era data, you get less movement.
(Again, I know there are more robust ways of doing this, but it's illustrative, which means I don't have to play math teacher, which I'd be awful at)
(Again, I know there are more robust ways of doing this, but it's illustrative, which means I don't have to play math teacher, which I'd be awful at)
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 AM
But if you instead keep R steady instead of HR rate for the home run era data, you get less movement.
(Again, I know there are more robust ways of doing this, but it's illustrative, which means I don't have to play math teacher, which I'd be awful at)
(Again, I know there are more robust ways of doing this, but it's illustrative, which means I don't have to play math teacher, which I'd be awful at)
Remember, it's stdev/mean, so we're already scale-invariant.
There are more robust ways to do it, when you model coefficient of variation based on just R/G and HR/H%, the HR/H% is a massive variable.
There are more robust ways to do it, when you model coefficient of variation based on just R/G and HR/H%, the HR/H% is a massive variable.
October 21, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Remember, it's stdev/mean, so we're already scale-invariant.
There are more robust ways to do it, when you model coefficient of variation based on just R/G and HR/H%, the HR/H% is a massive variable.
There are more robust ways to do it, when you model coefficient of variation based on just R/G and HR/H%, the HR/H% is a massive variable.
2025 teams of HR as a percentage of hits vs. game by game coefficient of variation for runs (st dev over mean). This is consistent with historical data, in which about 20% of the volatility of a team's game by game scoring can be explained by variations in HR as a percentage of hits.
October 21, 2025 at 12:08 AM
2025 teams of HR as a percentage of hits vs. game by game coefficient of variation for runs (st dev over mean). This is consistent with historical data, in which about 20% of the volatility of a team's game by game scoring can be explained by variations in HR as a percentage of hits.
I still get chills up my spine when I try to remember what horrors must have caused me to write this in my sleep one night some years ago.
October 15, 2025 at 6:53 PM
I still get chills up my spine when I try to remember what horrors must have caused me to write this in my sleep one night some years ago.
Yeah, it was an additional finding on a relatively dangerous police chase.
October 8, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Yeah, it was an additional finding on a relatively dangerous police chase.
Since I have a pretty good beard at the moment, I should make it into an Ambrose Burnside beard for jury duty and have the lawyers assume I'm like one of those sovereign citizen people and not worth the hassle.
October 4, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Since I have a pretty good beard at the moment, I should make it into an Ambrose Burnside beard for jury duty and have the lawyers assume I'm like one of those sovereign citizen people and not worth the hassle.
Hmm, in my good judgment, I don't want to wear long pants if I don't have to on an 85 degree day.
Hey @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, am I going to get berated by a judge if I wear khaki shorts as a juror? Unlike other court systems, I can't find anything explicitly saying I *can't*.
Hey @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, am I going to get berated by a judge if I wear khaki shorts as a juror? Unlike other court systems, I can't find anything explicitly saying I *can't*.
October 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Hmm, in my good judgment, I don't want to wear long pants if I don't have to on an 85 degree day.
Hey @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, am I going to get berated by a judge if I wear khaki shorts as a juror? Unlike other court systems, I can't find anything explicitly saying I *can't*.
Hey @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, am I going to get berated by a judge if I wear khaki shorts as a juror? Unlike other court systems, I can't find anything explicitly saying I *can't*.
Technically, the jury instructions don't EXPLICITLY say you can't bring booze.
October 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Technically, the jury instructions don't EXPLICITLY say you can't bring booze.
Been waiting to do THIS for a while.
September 17, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Been waiting to do THIS for a while.
Lawyers: Would this be considered a true threat?
September 16, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Lawyers: Would this be considered a true threat?
While trying to find one of my old injury pieces, I found that the TRUE story of the ZiPS acronym had been uncovered by AI. And now, the dark secret is out.
September 16, 2025 at 3:31 PM
While trying to find one of my old injury pieces, I found that the TRUE story of the ZiPS acronym had been uncovered by AI. And now, the dark secret is out.
I could do worse.
September 12, 2025 at 11:04 PM
I could do worse.
I know I shouldn't get annoyed at this point, but it *still* drives me nuts that people just say stuff like this without *any* evidence it's true.
(And it's not. Being heavily reliant on homers is one of the very few things that is connected even slightly with *overperforming* in the playoffs)
(And it's not. Being heavily reliant on homers is one of the very few things that is connected even slightly with *overperforming* in the playoffs)
September 10, 2025 at 6:55 PM
I know I shouldn't get annoyed at this point, but it *still* drives me nuts that people just say stuff like this without *any* evidence it's true.
(And it's not. Being heavily reliant on homers is one of the very few things that is connected even slightly with *overperforming* in the playoffs)
(And it's not. Being heavily reliant on homers is one of the very few things that is connected even slightly with *overperforming* in the playoffs)
Chase Headley as terrific in his prime, but poor guy, I think probably 98% of MLB the Show DD Players are going to take the other two options first.
September 2, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Chase Headley as terrific in his prime, but poor guy, I think probably 98% of MLB the Show DD Players are going to take the other two options first.
"Holy shit, THAT was Babe's name? Dangit, I could have gone with that one instead of trying to convince people I was Bullet Joe Bush or Socks Seybold."
(not a quote)
(not a quote)
August 26, 2025 at 10:25 AM
"Holy shit, THAT was Babe's name? Dangit, I could have gone with that one instead of trying to convince people I was Bullet Joe Bush or Socks Seybold."
(not a quote)
(not a quote)