David Smith
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.
Reposted by David Smith
In some ways, the breaking of the taboo on ever raising income tax rates should be welcomed. It would be much better, though, if it were the product of a carefully thought-out tax reform strategy.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:04 PM
In some ways, the breaking of the taboo on ever raising income tax rates should be welcomed. It would be much better, though, if it were the product of a carefully thought-out tax reform strategy.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
Reposted by David Smith
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well! #EconSky
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well! #EconSky
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
www.thetimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
www.thetimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Reposted by David Smith
Top 1% per cent, pre-tax income £219,000+, 26.6% all income tax 2025-26, down from 30.7% 2021-22. Top 5% (£99,900+) down 50.9% to 47.1%. Middle 25-5% up from 26 to 28.5%. Bottom 50% up 9.2 to 9.9%.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Top 1% per cent, pre-tax income £219,000+, 26.6% all income tax 2025-26, down from 30.7% 2021-22. Top 5% (£99,900+) down 50.9% to 47.1%. Middle 25-5% up from 26 to 28.5%. Bottom 50% up 9.2 to 9.9%.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
As the OBR sharpens its pencil for a downgrade that will affect Rachel Reeves’s budget, how accurate are the calculations?
www.thetimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
As the OBR sharpens its pencil for a downgrade that will affect Rachel Reeves’s budget, how accurate are the calculations?
www.thetimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Reposted by David Smith
Exports in goods are down 14% since final pre-Brexit quarter of 2019. Services exporters now face higher trading costs, more red tape and fewer opportunities. Services exports have been underperforming due to Brexit barriers.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Exports in goods are down 14% since final pre-Brexit quarter of 2019. Services exporters now face higher trading costs, more red tape and fewer opportunities. Services exports have been underperforming due to Brexit barriers.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it:
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
The land of my mother-in-law desperately needs better than the silly policies that the government seems to be hooked on
www.thetimes.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:46 PM
My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it:
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it:
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
The land of my mother-in-law desperately needs better than the silly policies that the government seems to be hooked on
www.thetimes.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:46 PM
My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it:
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it
www.thetimes.com/article/3983...
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending:
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
It used to be said that the UK was too reliant on ‘debt fuelled’ spending. But now inflation, interest rates, tax and the budget are keeping wallets shut
www.thetimes.com
October 18, 2025 at 10:12 PM
My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending:
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Yes, fair point. Everybody expected the savings built up during the pandemic to be spent but people decided to be more cautious, perhaps for good reason.
What part do you think the pandemic plays in this drama? My hunch is that households recalibrated savings during the pandemic and want to keep that buffer. Not at all irrational imho
October 18, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Yes, fair point. Everybody expected the savings built up during the pandemic to be spent but people decided to be more cautious, perhaps for good reason.
Good point
Who’s going to drive the economy if the consumers can’t or won’t ?
October 18, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Good point
My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending:
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
It used to be said that the UK was too reliant on ‘debt fuelled’ spending. But now inflation, interest rates, tax and the budget are keeping wallets shut
www.thetimes.com
October 18, 2025 at 10:12 PM
My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending:
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth
www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind:
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
With the budget looming, one of the chancellor’s key tasks is trying to persuade the financial watchdog that the outlook for the economy is good
www.thetimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 3:35 PM
My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind:
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind:
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
With the budget looming, one of the chancellor’s key tasks is trying to persuade the financial watchdog that the outlook for the economy is good
www.thetimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 3:35 PM
My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind:
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another
www.thetimes.com/article/7513...
Thank you
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on a topic that most economists would agree with. Fuel duty freeze' should be compared to public transport rises (notably trains), where it makes no sense to travel by train if you have a car from a price perspective. #EconSky
My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up:
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
October 12, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Thank you
Reposted by David Smith
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on a topic that most economists would agree with. Fuel duty freeze' should be compared to public transport rises (notably trains), where it makes no sense to travel by train if you have a car from a price perspective. #EconSky
My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up:
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
As Rachel Reeves struggles to fix the public finances, sacred cows such as fuel duty and the state pension are cramping the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre
www.thetimes.com
October 12, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on a topic that most economists would agree with. Fuel duty freeze' should be compared to public transport rises (notably trains), where it makes no sense to travel by train if you have a car from a price perspective. #EconSky
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up:
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
As Rachel Reeves struggles to fix the public finances, sacred cows such as fuel duty and the state pension are cramping the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre
www.thetimes.com
October 11, 2025 at 9:42 PM
My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up:
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...
Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons
www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...