What was reinforced for us is that the mesoanalysis/near-term forecasting role is critical and can watch observational trends closely to get ahead of last-minute model shifts. This really is where forecasters in 2024 and beyond must focus their attention and skill development.

We had 0.4" of snow and 0.04" of liquid at IND, and the resulting travel impacts from this unexpected low-end event were significant. We're meeting with DOT partners tomorrow for an after-action review to learn more about road surface temperature and road treatment challenges.

Up until late morning/midday model updates, ensembles were under-dispersed and clustered with meaningful QPF to the southwest of Indianapolis. Although I don't have ensemble data to show, you can see the trend in the ECMWF QPF here. This was seen in other models as well.