The recurrence interval for these type situations is quite low. Deep/persistent/intense mesocyclone, limited near-term potential for storm mode change, and very broad downstream warm sector with dangerous parameter space.

How does a person define a false alarm? Perception is such an important aspect of false alarms that many intelligent people don't bother to consider.

Here is a quick example of just how challenging low-end wintry precipitation events are to forecast, and how impactful they can be. On 12/2, a midlevel shortwave trough trended in the models to be more amplified and stronger the morning-of, which we reacted to.