Nick Mann
@drnickmann.bsky.social
Ah, OK thanks. I hope you'll agree the way official bodies now describing 'average 10-15,000 flu deaths pa' as accepted truth is wrong, misleading govt and public about flu deaths, and how that relates to us thinking about Covid - especially whether we shld be offering more people Covid vaccines.
December 14, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Ah, OK thanks. I hope you'll agree the way official bodies now describing 'average 10-15,000 flu deaths pa' as accepted truth is wrong, misleading govt and public about flu deaths, and how that relates to us thinking about Covid - especially whether we shld be offering more people Covid vaccines.
Reposted by Nick Mann
Thanks for sharing these - it's clearer now what you are asking.
I would treat any attempts to attribute excess deaths to causes as a best endeavours approach (i.e. treat with a pinch of salt!) It's hard and subjective enough to measure the aggregate excess, let alone attribute to causes.
I would treat any attempts to attribute excess deaths to causes as a best endeavours approach (i.e. treat with a pinch of salt!) It's hard and subjective enough to measure the aggregate excess, let alone attribute to causes.
December 14, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Thanks for sharing these - it's clearer now what you are asking.
I would treat any attempts to attribute excess deaths to causes as a best endeavours approach (i.e. treat with a pinch of salt!) It's hard and subjective enough to measure the aggregate excess, let alone attribute to causes.
I would treat any attempts to attribute excess deaths to causes as a best endeavours approach (i.e. treat with a pinch of salt!) It's hard and subjective enough to measure the aggregate excess, let alone attribute to causes.
Thanks, I tend to agree to include 'involving': winter, elderly, and co-morbids all may be relevant to 'flu deaths'.
Looks like pneumonia can be parsed out as the baseline during summer, but why conflate?
Must confess I don't understand your Y axis: 3.8% and 12.7% are avged percentage, but of what?
Looks like pneumonia can be parsed out as the baseline during summer, but why conflate?
Must confess I don't understand your Y axis: 3.8% and 12.7% are avged percentage, but of what?
December 14, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Thanks, I tend to agree to include 'involving': winter, elderly, and co-morbids all may be relevant to 'flu deaths'.
Looks like pneumonia can be parsed out as the baseline during summer, but why conflate?
Must confess I don't understand your Y axis: 3.8% and 12.7% are avged percentage, but of what?
Looks like pneumonia can be parsed out as the baseline during summer, but why conflate?
Must confess I don't understand your Y axis: 3.8% and 12.7% are avged percentage, but of what?
Thank you for checking. Your comment is exactly my point. So my question as to why UKHSA, DHSC, NHS*, BBC have reverted to using 'fluEWD' is not rhetorical. When official bodies use these hugely inflated flu death stats, it misleads (and has comparatively minimised Covid deaths). Imo needs changing.
December 14, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Thank you for checking. Your comment is exactly my point. So my question as to why UKHSA, DHSC, NHS*, BBC have reverted to using 'fluEWD' is not rhetorical. When official bodies use these hugely inflated flu death stats, it misleads (and has comparatively minimised Covid deaths). Imo needs changing.
December 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
It sounds like I'm comparing all-cause EWD, but I'm not! These figures specifically cite flu. Please see, one example here and another below: ukhsa-newsroom.prgloo.com/news/excess-...
Excess deaths associated with flu highest in 5 years
The UK Health Security Agency has published its annual flu report for the 2022/2023 flu season, the first-time flu has been widespread since the COVID-19 pandemic began. A new UKHSA interim analysis i...
ukhsa-newsroom.prgloo.com
December 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
It sounds like I'm comparing all-cause EWD, but I'm not! These figures specifically cite flu. Please see, one example here and another below: ukhsa-newsroom.prgloo.com/news/excess-...
These estimates quote 13,500 - 14,500 average (excess) flu deaths, and up to 20-30,000.
The huge magnitude of variance quoted for excess death modelling vs death certs is not reconcilable imo.
The excess death modelling assoc with flu appears less credible than ONS J09. Are you able to elucidate?
The huge magnitude of variance quoted for excess death modelling vs death certs is not reconcilable imo.
The excess death modelling assoc with flu appears less credible than ONS J09. Are you able to elucidate?
December 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
These estimates quote 13,500 - 14,500 average (excess) flu deaths, and up to 20-30,000.
The huge magnitude of variance quoted for excess death modelling vs death certs is not reconcilable imo.
The excess death modelling assoc with flu appears less credible than ONS J09. Are you able to elucidate?
The huge magnitude of variance quoted for excess death modelling vs death certs is not reconcilable imo.
The excess death modelling assoc with flu appears less credible than ONS J09. Are you able to elucidate?
Thanks v much for bearing with me. I think I've not made my question clear. J09 graph helpful and what I'd expect one to use when describing annual flu death numbers, avg=c600.
CMOs, Govt, BBC. UKHSA etc seem to use excess death modelling numbers eg NOMIS FluMOMO, resulting in much higher estimates👇
CMOs, Govt, BBC. UKHSA etc seem to use excess death modelling numbers eg NOMIS FluMOMO, resulting in much higher estimates👇
December 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Thanks v much for bearing with me. I think I've not made my question clear. J09 graph helpful and what I'd expect one to use when describing annual flu death numbers, avg=c600.
CMOs, Govt, BBC. UKHSA etc seem to use excess death modelling numbers eg NOMIS FluMOMO, resulting in much higher estimates👇
CMOs, Govt, BBC. UKHSA etc seem to use excess death modelling numbers eg NOMIS FluMOMO, resulting in much higher estimates👇
Historically, UK numbers of flu deaths were c600 average (by death certs). Worst in recent times= 13,000 in 2009.
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
December 13, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Historically, UK numbers of flu deaths were c600 average (by death certs). Worst in recent times= 13,000 in 2009.
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Indeed, most flu linked deaths are 2ary pneumonia, but most pneumonia deaths are not flu.
Grouping the two together J09, and using modelling estimates for flu alone has resulted in massive alterations in quoted 'average flu deaths': from c600, to c10,000 pa...how/why?
Discrepancy is unaccountable.
Grouping the two together J09, and using modelling estimates for flu alone has resulted in massive alterations in quoted 'average flu deaths': from c600, to c10,000 pa...how/why?
Discrepancy is unaccountable.
December 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Indeed, most flu linked deaths are 2ary pneumonia, but most pneumonia deaths are not flu.
Grouping the two together J09, and using modelling estimates for flu alone has resulted in massive alterations in quoted 'average flu deaths': from c600, to c10,000 pa...how/why?
Discrepancy is unaccountable.
Grouping the two together J09, and using modelling estimates for flu alone has resulted in massive alterations in quoted 'average flu deaths': from c600, to c10,000 pa...how/why?
Discrepancy is unaccountable.
Historically, UK numbers of flu deaths were c600 average (by death certs). Worst in recent times= 13,000 in 2009.
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
December 12, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Historically, UK numbers of flu deaths were c600 average (by death certs). Worst in recent times= 13,000 in 2009.
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Due to change in methodology(to model) and conflation of flu with pneumonia J09, average flu deaths now quoted as average c10,000.
Have you not noted this massive disparity in reporting?
Swine flu 2009 was an exceptionally bad year and it showed; it was obvious. 2022/23 was bad but not exceptionally so.
December 12, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Swine flu 2009 was an exceptionally bad year and it showed; it was obvious. 2022/23 was bad but not exceptionally so.
"In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09)." -
Oxford Uni Vacc '23
Oxford Uni Vacc '23
December 12, 2025 at 7:17 PM
"In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09)." -
Oxford Uni Vacc '23
Oxford Uni Vacc '23
Thanks for input, Stuart. I'm referring to massive inflation of purported numbers of flu deaths specifically since the change in methodology.
December 12, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Thanks for input, Stuart. I'm referring to massive inflation of purported numbers of flu deaths specifically since the change in methodology.
Covid modelling method showed around 30% lower than registrations. Meanwhile modelling shows a high proportion of deaths due to 'cold weather'.
Working as GP for 35yrs, no way was I seeing rates or indications of flu deaths of c16,000 over flu period in 2022/23.
Decades of registrations= c600-9,000.
Working as GP for 35yrs, no way was I seeing rates or indications of flu deaths of c16,000 over flu period in 2022/23.
Decades of registrations= c600-9,000.
December 12, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Covid modelling method showed around 30% lower than registrations. Meanwhile modelling shows a high proportion of deaths due to 'cold weather'.
Working as GP for 35yrs, no way was I seeing rates or indications of flu deaths of c16,000 over flu period in 2022/23.
Decades of registrations= c600-9,000.
Working as GP for 35yrs, no way was I seeing rates or indications of flu deaths of c16,000 over flu period in 2022/23.
Decades of registrations= c600-9,000.
This is pneumonia and/or flu, the conflation of which was odd and nonsensical. If you separate 2022/23, then if 15,867 flu deaths there would be only 8,500 pneumonia deaths. No way this can be correct.
Comparing US/Australia rates for similar periods they're c10x lower: reg vs modelling way off.
Comparing US/Australia rates for similar periods they're c10x lower: reg vs modelling way off.
December 12, 2025 at 6:53 PM
This is pneumonia and/or flu, the conflation of which was odd and nonsensical. If you separate 2022/23, then if 15,867 flu deaths there would be only 8,500 pneumonia deaths. No way this can be correct.
Comparing US/Australia rates for similar periods they're c10x lower: reg vs modelling way off.
Comparing US/Australia rates for similar periods they're c10x lower: reg vs modelling way off.
...Please could you share your expertise and opinion on this - perhaps on private messaging?
Much seems wrong with these stats and is of real epistemological importance.
Much seems wrong with these stats and is of real epistemological importance.
December 12, 2025 at 1:51 PM
...Please could you share your expertise and opinion on this - perhaps on private messaging?
Much seems wrong with these stats and is of real epistemological importance.
Much seems wrong with these stats and is of real epistemological importance.
Reposted by Nick Mann
GP partners were forced to make the ‘devastating’ decision to hand back the contract for their practice, due to 10yrs of financial cuts
ICB has decided to award the contract to Malling Health, after a ‘robust procurement process’
calderdaleandkirklees999callforthenhs.wordpress.com/2023/04/19/w...
ICB has decided to award the contract to Malling Health, after a ‘robust procurement process’
calderdaleandkirklees999callforthenhs.wordpress.com/2023/04/19/w...
Why is GP surgery in Health Sec’s constituency now run by profiteering Malling Health?
Under government-engineered pressure for small GP practices to fail, the Priors Field Surgery in Sutton, Cambridgeshire recently announced its closure. After implacable public opposition to the los…
calderdaleandkirklees999callforthenhs.wordpress.com
November 18, 2024 at 7:31 PM
GP partners were forced to make the ‘devastating’ decision to hand back the contract for their practice, due to 10yrs of financial cuts
ICB has decided to award the contract to Malling Health, after a ‘robust procurement process’
calderdaleandkirklees999callforthenhs.wordpress.com/2023/04/19/w...
ICB has decided to award the contract to Malling Health, after a ‘robust procurement process’
calderdaleandkirklees999callforthenhs.wordpress.com/2023/04/19/w...
Reposted by Nick Mann
HCRG is owned by venture capitalist group Twenty20 Capital, which boasts that it expects its investments to deliver “significant returns in 2 to 5 years”
What changes might be demanded to ensure its new GP practices deliver the required profit margins
lowdownnhs.info/private-prov...
What changes might be demanded to ensure its new GP practices deliver the required profit margins
lowdownnhs.info/private-prov...
Operose flogged off, with 60 GP practices - The Lowdown
By John Lister The giant American health corporation Centene has now completed a divestment of all its health care investments in England by selling off its subsidiary Operose, which had controversial...
lowdownnhs.info
November 18, 2024 at 7:31 PM
HCRG is owned by venture capitalist group Twenty20 Capital, which boasts that it expects its investments to deliver “significant returns in 2 to 5 years”
What changes might be demanded to ensure its new GP practices deliver the required profit margins
lowdownnhs.info/private-prov...
What changes might be demanded to ensure its new GP practices deliver the required profit margins
lowdownnhs.info/private-prov...
Reposted by Nick Mann
Operose taken over by HCRG (formerly Virgin Care) due to Centene deciding to sell Operose
HCRG Care Group and was acquired by private equity firm Twenty20 Capital
www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breakin...
HCRG Care Group and was acquired by private equity firm Twenty20 Capital
www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breakin...
HCRG Care Group to take over Operose and 60 GP practices
HCRG Care Group - formerly known as Virgin Care - has agreed to buy Operose Health, which runs nearly 60 NHS GP practices across the UK.
www.pulsetoday.co.uk
November 18, 2024 at 7:31 PM
Operose taken over by HCRG (formerly Virgin Care) due to Centene deciding to sell Operose
HCRG Care Group and was acquired by private equity firm Twenty20 Capital
www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breakin...
HCRG Care Group and was acquired by private equity firm Twenty20 Capital
www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breakin...