Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.

Employment gains saw an 86% decline over the last seven months! We had a bounce back last fall but it's unlikely that'll happen this year given the headwinds (e.g. self-induced bad economic environment).

US workers are hurting! The US private sector added a monthly average of 39k jobs in the last 2 years and a monthly average of 17k since January when you remove healthcare and social assistance employment gains. It's a strong labor market mirage. www.barrons.com/articles/une...

I think it's already much weaker than many believe. Job growth has been well below the pre-pandemic trend for the past year and it's getting worse. We're not seeing mass layoffs but low job growth and a diminishing labor force signal that this is a bad economy for American workers.

Flagging that # of people not in the labor force increased by 813k OTM and by 1.5 mill since last Sept. Low labor demand, evidenced by slow real wage growth + jobs stagnant/down in non-health related industries, has driven people out of the labor force en masse already. Happy to discuss further.

Here's a look at employment for those agencies impacted by last night's executive order gutting federal unions. Note: some sub agencies or departments were excluded from the EO.

The primary driver of inflation today is housing! Shelter costs have kept core inflation above 3%, YoY, and will remain above 3% for the entirety of 2025Q1. Clear evidence policymakers must move beyond Fed tools and implement structural reforms that directly address housing costs.

Hi Chris, looks like you got an imposter.

Progressives going into 2025 be like …

They make good office mates.

I'm not a social media power user but c'mon