Alí R. Bustamante, Ph.D.
@dralibustamante.bsky.social
Analyzing how today's economic and policy landscape impacts workers. #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower
Second appearance on Marketplace in 3 days! Hear my take on the deteriorating job market for college graduates.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Recent college grads face a challenging job market
New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that earning a college degree can still help you keep a job and get higher wages, but it’s less of an advantage than it used to be.
www.marketplace.org
November 26, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Second appearance on Marketplace in 3 days! Hear my take on the deteriorating job market for college graduates.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
I was on @marketplace.org today. Nearly all job gains in Sept came from health care and restaurants. When the rest of the labor market is flat or losing jobs, a jump in restaurant hiring means workers are stitching together income, not a booming economy. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
September jobs report shows rise in those holding more than one job
Uptick in restaurant jobs often means people are hedging but taking on a second job.
www.marketplace.org
November 25, 2025 at 2:06 AM
I was on @marketplace.org today. Nearly all job gains in Sept came from health care and restaurants. When the rest of the labor market is flat or losing jobs, a jump in restaurant hiring means workers are stitching together income, not a booming economy. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.
September 26, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.
This labor market downturn is dragging real wage growth to a crawl, with the most financially vulnerable workers—those in low-wage jobs and with limited education—barely managing gains of around 1%. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
Wage Gains Are Slipping. Low Wage Workers Will Feel It Most.
When economic booms fade, marginal workers suffer most, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
September 5, 2025 at 1:11 PM
This labor market downturn is dragging real wage growth to a crawl, with the most financially vulnerable workers—those in low-wage jobs and with limited education—barely managing gains of around 1%. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
Low-wage workers briefly broke four decades of wage stagnation - then saw those gains erased. On Labor Day, it’s worth asking: why does the business cycle always punish those at the bottom most? My new piece in Barron’s digs in.
www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
Wage Gains Are Slipping. Low Wage Workers Will Feel It Most.
When economic booms fade, marginal workers suffer most, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
August 28, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Low-wage workers briefly broke four decades of wage stagnation - then saw those gains erased. On Labor Day, it’s worth asking: why does the business cycle always punish those at the bottom most? My new piece in Barron’s digs in.
www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
The labor market isn’t as strong as we thought and it’s getting worst. Read why on @barrons.com
Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand.
www.barrons.com/articles/une...
Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand.
www.barrons.com/articles/une...
Unemployment Dropped. Workers Are Still Losing to Inflation.
This isn’t what a strong labor market looks like, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
July 9, 2025 at 5:53 PM
The labor market isn’t as strong as we thought and it’s getting worst. Read why on @barrons.com
Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand.
www.barrons.com/articles/une...
Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand.
www.barrons.com/articles/une...
Missed the live discussion on worker power and the labor market? Don't worry. Here's the recording of today's Power Half-Hour.
It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space.
www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...
It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space.
www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...
The Power Half-Hour #4 | LinkedIn
Injecting 30 minutes of power into your week. Join Power At Work LIVE for Episode 4 of The Power Half-Hour at noon ET/11 AM CT/9 AM PT on July 3rd!
The Power Half-Hour is a livestreamed, fast-paced,...
www.linkedin.com
July 3, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Missed the live discussion on worker power and the labor market? Don't worry. Here's the recording of today's Power Half-Hour.
It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space.
www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...
It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space.
www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...
What if the 2021–24 labor market didn’t reflect growing worker power—but rather workers scrambling to recover lost purchasing power amid inflation and nominal wage rigidity? High job openings may have been a symptom of real wage erosion, not a tight labor market.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
Labor Market Dynamics During the 2021-24 Inflation Surge
A Policy Hub paper argues that the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a symptom, and not the predominant cause, of the pandemic-era inflation surge.
www.atlantafed.org
June 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
What if the 2021–24 labor market didn’t reflect growing worker power—but rather workers scrambling to recover lost purchasing power amid inflation and nominal wage rigidity? High job openings may have been a symptom of real wage erosion, not a tight labor market.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
Two biggest stories below the topline figures showing that the labor market is getting worse:
1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021.
2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.
1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021.
2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.
May jobs report:
139,000 new jobs
95,000 in downward revisions in March/April
Only 44k net new jobs this month
Ruh-roh Donald.
139,000 new jobs
95,000 in downward revisions in March/April
Only 44k net new jobs this month
Ruh-roh Donald.
Big downward revisions: Change in payrolls for March revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and change for April revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 95,000 lower than previously reported.
June 6, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Two biggest stories below the topline figures showing that the labor market is getting worse:
1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021.
2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.
1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021.
2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.
The 0.2% decline in real GDI is an early warning sign of economic softening, especially when paired with slowing GDP and high interest rates. Points to underlying weakness not yet captured by spending data.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau o...
www.bea.gov
May 29, 2025 at 12:50 PM
The 0.2% decline in real GDI is an early warning sign of economic softening, especially when paired with slowing GDP and high interest rates. Points to underlying weakness not yet captured by spending data.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
Friends, this is my last month leading the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute. Grateful to have worked alongside brilliant fellows and colleagues for the past 4 years. Optimistic about opportunities to come. Onward. ✊ #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower
May 16, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Friends, this is my last month leading the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute. Grateful to have worked alongside brilliant fellows and colleagues for the past 4 years. Optimistic about opportunities to come. Onward. ✊ #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower
Inflation policy requires effective housing policy. Shelter driving more than half of the inflation increase, up 4% OTY. Shelter inflation increased for the first time since last August. Tariffs and high interest rates are not helping. www.barrons.com/articles/wil...
May 13, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Inflation policy requires effective housing policy. Shelter driving more than half of the inflation increase, up 4% OTY. Shelter inflation increased for the first time since last August. Tariffs and high interest rates are not helping. www.barrons.com/articles/wil...
Good topline jobs figures but here are some red flags:
-Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed
-9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming
-Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years
-Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed
-9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming
-Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years
Happy #JobsDay!
At 8:30 am ET, BLS delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+133K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) stable at 4.2%
At 8:30 am ET, BLS delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+133K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) stable at 4.2%
May 2, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Good topline jobs figures but here are some red flags:
-Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed
-9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming
-Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years
-Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed
-9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming
-Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years
Surge in imports leads to decline, -0.3%, in real GDP in 2025Q1. For context, the US economy grew at a quarterly average of 2.5% last year.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau ...
www.bea.gov
April 30, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Surge in imports leads to decline, -0.3%, in real GDP in 2025Q1. For context, the US economy grew at a quarterly average of 2.5% last year.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
Must read on why we need economic democracy, an economy controlled by the many and not by the few, and how we get there. Perspectives from over 20 great progressive thinkers.
NEW: Americans need a government that delivers stability and security—not chaos.
Our new essay collection brings together great minds to imagine how democracy can better deliver the economy Americans need and want. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
Our new essay collection brings together great minds to imagine how democracy can better deliver the economy Americans need and want. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
April 29, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Must read on why we need economic democracy, an economy controlled by the many and not by the few, and how we get there. Perspectives from over 20 great progressive thinkers.
Extremely excited to have, the one and only, Paul Krugman join the Roosevelt Institute.
At a time when economic clarity and progressive ideas are urgently needed, we are thrilled to have @pkrugman.bsky.social join Roosevelt as a senior fellow.
Join us in welcoming Paul 🙌 rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/doing-g...
Join us in welcoming Paul 🙌 rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/doing-g...
April 15, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Extremely excited to have, the one and only, Paul Krugman join the Roosevelt Institute.
Unpacking CPI figures show a mixed picture on inflation:
-Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long.
-Food inflation still high, and being felt.
-Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists.
-Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn?
Stay tuned!
-Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long.
-Food inflation still high, and being felt.
-Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists.
-Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn?
Stay tuned!
U.S. inflation declined last month as the cost of gas fell, a sign that price growth was cooling even as President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff threats.
Inflation fell last month as gas prices dropped sharply, a sign prices cooling before tariffs
U.S. inflation declined last month as the cost of gas fell, a sign that price growth was cooling even as President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff threats.
bit.ly
April 10, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Unpacking CPI figures show a mixed picture on inflation:
-Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long.
-Food inflation still high, and being felt.
-Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists.
-Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn?
Stay tuned!
-Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long.
-Food inflation still high, and being felt.
-Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists.
-Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn?
Stay tuned!
Uplifting the huge impact that the Raise the Wage Act of 2025 will directly have on 22+million workers! We have the power to improve the wellbeing of American workers without the gimmicks and pain of broad tariffs.
@sanders.senate.gov & @bobbyscott.house.gov just reintroduced the Raise the Wage Act to ⬆️ the federal min wage to $17/hr by 2030
This increase would impact 15% of the US workforce—over 22 million people—and the average affected worker would make an additional $3,200/yr
www.epi.org/publication/...
This increase would impact 15% of the US workforce—over 22 million people—and the average affected worker would make an additional $3,200/yr
www.epi.org/publication/...
April 9, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Uplifting the huge impact that the Raise the Wage Act of 2025 will directly have on 22+million workers! We have the power to improve the wellbeing of American workers without the gimmicks and pain of broad tariffs.
The odds of recession increasingly drastic after US added 228k jobs last month encapsulates current US economic policy. The administration is doing everything it can to crash the economy but even bad economic policy has a lag. Also underscores strength of the economy the Trump admin inherited.
April 4, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The odds of recession increasingly drastic after US added 228k jobs last month encapsulates current US economic policy. The administration is doing everything it can to crash the economy but even bad economic policy has a lag. Also underscores strength of the economy the Trump admin inherited.
Overall good jobs report today:
-Professional + business services stopped ongoing losses
-Leisure +hospitality had a big rebound
-Red flag is the rise in long-term unemployed
-Tick up in the unemployment rate is largely due to new entrants (teenagers)
-4k fewer federal workers due to DOGE
-Professional + business services stopped ongoing losses
-Leisure +hospitality had a big rebound
-Red flag is the rise in long-term unemployed
-Tick up in the unemployment rate is largely due to new entrants (teenagers)
-4k fewer federal workers due to DOGE
Breaking News: Employers in the U.S. added 228,000 jobs last month, a healthy showing from an economy that faces a number of new challenges.
Follow live updates.
Follow live updates.
Live Updates: Stock Markets Drop Further After China Retaliates for Trump Tariffs
Employers added 228,000 jobs in March, many more than expected. The closely watched report provided some good news as markets reeled from worries about escalating tensions over tariffs.
www.nytimes.com
April 4, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Overall good jobs report today:
-Professional + business services stopped ongoing losses
-Leisure +hospitality had a big rebound
-Red flag is the rise in long-term unemployed
-Tick up in the unemployment rate is largely due to new entrants (teenagers)
-4k fewer federal workers due to DOGE
-Professional + business services stopped ongoing losses
-Leisure +hospitality had a big rebound
-Red flag is the rise in long-term unemployed
-Tick up in the unemployment rate is largely due to new entrants (teenagers)
-4k fewer federal workers due to DOGE
Here's a look at employment for those agencies impacted by last night's executive order gutting federal unions. Note: some sub agencies or departments were excluded from the EO.
March 28, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Here's a look at employment for those agencies impacted by last night's executive order gutting federal unions. Note: some sub agencies or departments were excluded from the EO.
Last night, the president issued an executive action where about 800k federal employees will lose rights to form unions, engage in collective bargaining, or file grievances over workplace conditions and disciplinary actions under the law. 1/2
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Exclusions from Federal Labor-Management Relations Programs
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 7103(b)(1) of title 5 and
www.whitehouse.gov
March 28, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Last night, the president issued an executive action where about 800k federal employees will lose rights to form unions, engage in collective bargaining, or file grievances over workplace conditions and disciplinary actions under the law. 1/2
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
One reason for stubbornly high inflation, spending by the top 10%. My take on why we need progressive taxation to bring down inflation. www.barrons.com/articles/ric...
March 12, 2025 at 12:58 PM
One reason for stubbornly high inflation, spending by the top 10%. My take on why we need progressive taxation to bring down inflation. www.barrons.com/articles/ric...
Great news inflation ticked downward but reasons to be concerned. Market uncertainty from tariffs may drive inflation up next month and housing (shelter) is still the main driver of inflation. Hard to see these concerns addressed in the short term and high interest rates aren't helping Americans.
March 12, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Great news inflation ticked downward but reasons to be concerned. Market uncertainty from tariffs may drive inflation up next month and housing (shelter) is still the main driver of inflation. Hard to see these concerns addressed in the short term and high interest rates aren't helping Americans.
Housing (shelter) continues to be the main driver of inflation and high interest rates aren't helping. Hard to see a path to the 2% target without action. Here's my take: www.barrons.com/articles/wil...
March 12, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Housing (shelter) continues to be the main driver of inflation and high interest rates aren't helping. Hard to see a path to the 2% target without action. Here's my take: www.barrons.com/articles/wil...